Issue 147
November 2016
Who will be the last lightweight standing in Mexico City – and put themselves in line for shot at the belt
When Rafael dos Anjos ran through Anthony Pettis last year to become the seventh UFC lightweight champion, then retained the belt with a huge performance against ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone, all signs pointed towards a long reign for the Brazilian. But RDA was handed a first-round TKO defeat by Eddie Alvarez and must now work his way back to the belt.
His first opponent he must defeat to do that is a tough one. Boasting a huge win streak, Tony Ferguson’s eight-fight run has put him towards the top of the list of contenders. Alvarez included, no other 155lb’er has more consecutive Octagon victories than ‘El Cucuy’.
In Mexico City on November 5th, #2-ranked dos Anjos and #3-ranked Ferguson will square off to determine who will jump to the front of the queue for the next championship fight. Will RDA’s pressure be too much? Or can the TUF 13 winner bag himself another spectacular submission? FO asks three experts for their insight.
Mohammed Shahid
Pro fighter and founder of the elite KHK MMA gym
Dos Anjos is a former champion and we saw his quality after the Khabib (Nurmagomedov) loss, then he comes back as a different person completely – aggressive, fast, amazing striking. Dos Anjos has that little edge to always pull off a win.
If he’s going to win the fight he’s going to be aggressive, put Tony on the cage and control him, go for those takedowns, come back up, do his striking and go for the takedown again.
Ferguson has no fear going to the ground and that’s one of the things that makes him different in that weight class. His BJJ is slick. But it won’t be a submission. I believe it’s going to be a stand-up fight where Tony’s going to dominate the whole time. I think it’s going to be a decision, but Tony’s going to pull that off.
One thing about Tony is that he doesn’t have to lead. If someone leads he’s very good at dealing with any situation.
Ferguson is not that kind of a boxer that you see playing that distance game. He’s aggressive as well. But I think (his length) will be a key factor coming into this fight. I’m sure (his team) will be working on that as an advantage.
You look at dos Anjos, the aggression he has with his straight punches and coming inside with his punches – Tony’s going to keep that range, for sure. He’s a long, lanky guy.
Joe Warren
Bellator’s former two-weight world champion
Rafael dos Anjos is an honorary teammate of mine. I fly out there to Evolve MMA in Singapore and work with them all the time. Heath Sims is running their gym out there so I am always on dos Anjos’ side. We are in a very unpredictable sport. Getting in that cage, anything can happen. But I believe he wins this fight.
Rafael is working with the best jiu-jitsu guys, the best grapplers and the best Muay Thai strikers in the world, every day. He has always been a dangerous man on top. But now his hands are so heavy too.
He’s a champion. Take it from me, once you lose a belt, it’s not that you aren’t the world champion anymore, you just don’t have the belt on. He just needs to get his belt back. It’s a roller-coaster career, and like me, dos Anjos is more dangerous on the upside.
I’m not the best prediction guy. I always go with my friends so I’m going with dos Anjos over Ferguson by stoppage in this one.
Josh Emmett
Team Alpha Male’s unbeaten UFC lightweight
I’m really looking forward to this fight. It’s great that two guys so highly ranked are putting their title chances on the line in what’s got to be a final eliminator. It should be a great fight.
Stylistically, it’s a really tough fight for both men. But ultimately it depends on who shows up and who is on their game on the night. If Ferguson can use his reach advantage and keep dos Anjos at bay with his punches and his kicks, I could see him pulling off a decision win in the end.
But if he’s unable to use his reach and length advantage then I can see the former champion being the aggressor throughout.
That’s what happened when he won the title against Anthony Pettis. He started fast, controlled the pace of the fight and he really took it to Pettis. And I can see a similar game plan being successful here: dos Anjos working to get on the inside and using his heavy strikes to set up his takedowns and pulling off the win – or even getting a KO or TKO finish.
Stand-up guys
Knocked down, dragged out
Ferguson has been knocked down twice in the UFC – against Abel Trujillo and Lando Vanatta – but recovered to win by submission on both occasions. The only time dos Anjos has tasted the canvas was in his Octagon debut in 2008, but he was defeated by Jeremy Stephens via KO.
