Issue 142
June 2016
The experts forecast a repeat result when the sport’s two top middleweights rematch in the main event of UFC 199
Luke Rockhold vs. Chris Weidman 2
The last time Fighters Only asked three experts to pick a winner between Chris Weidman and Luke Rockhold, it was a clean sweep. The MMA Lab’s John Crouch, Team Takedown’s Stephen Wright and Jackson-Wink MMA’s Izzy Martinez all said ‘The All-American’ would defend his belt thanks largely to his superior wrestling.
They didn’t count on the champion’s strange decision to try a spinning back-kick for the first time in his professional career in the third round though. The challenger seized the opportunity to take the fight to the floor and start punching. From that moment, he completely dominated the fight and referee Herb Dean mercifully called a halt to the contest early in the fourth frame.
Five months on from that ‘Fight of the Night’, FO has recruited another trio of some of the industry’s sharpest minds to ask whether the first encounter was just a fluke or lightning can strike for the second time when the Octagon returns to Los Angeles.
Mike Winkeljohn
Owner of World MMA Awards ‘Gym of the Year’ Jackson-Wink MMA
Picking Luke Rockhold
I did not think Rockhold would beat Weidman the first time. I figured that Weidman would stay consistent with his pressure and get past the long range that Rockhold has and get top control. I did know that once Rockhold’s on top, he’s very heavy on top. He’s very big and very strong there.
Weidman might have had some injuries and that one spinning kick made a huge difference in the fight – the whole difference. It was a miscalculation to spin while (Rockhold was) coming forward.
A lot of things happened in the clinch in the area close to the cage. There were a lot of small angle changes that took away the advantages Chris would have had if he had got Rockhold in the clinch, pushed him up against the cage and tried to hurt him with dirty boxing.
They both had good body kicks in there that hit each other, I’m not sure what (Weidman’s) injury was, but I think the body shots made a big difference in the fight.
Honestly, I believe it’s going to be a more competitive fight the second time around because Weidman’s not going to have his injuries. But I’m still going to go with Rockhold on the rematch. He can be very successful with finding the range and he’s got some tools that Weidman doesn’t have.
Jason Parillo
Head coach to 185lb contender Michael Bisping
Picking Luke Rockhold
I really like Weidman but I see Rockhold taking that fight again. It’ll be a similar pattern to the first fight. I believe Rockhold will have a stronger first round – I don’t think he had his complete bearings in that first round in the first fight. He’s going to come out a lot more confident and put a lot more on him.
Switching camps might actually hurt Weidman too. You can’t just expect to go have a rapport with a whole other team that is telling you different things. If you’re going to do one, do one. Don’t go and hang out with these guys and then hang out with (different) guys. You’re getting two different pieces of information.
We can only take so much in our brain. If one guy’s telling you one thing and another guy’s telling you this – and they conflict – you start mind-f**king yourself a little bit. I don’t believe that’s the best idea. He should stick with the team that he has.
Granted, you could see Weidman has won fights on natural ability. It’s not like he hit Anderson (Silva) with the cleanest left hook when he knocked him out. But he’s got that extra pop and extra power. He’s got that size and strength, and he’s a great wrestler.
When it comes down to UFC 199, Rockhold’s going to take that fight and in an even higher and more accomplished fashion than the first one.
Dan Hardy
Former UFC title challenger turned analyst for UFC BreakDown
Picking Luke Rockhold
The middleweight rematch of the century between Luke Rockhold and Chris Weidman is so tightly contested that if they fought 10 times, it’s likely they’d win five each. According to Weidman a fractured foot may have played a part in the belt changing hands by limiting his movement during the fight and his ability to prepare in the weeks leading up to it by impairing his conditioning.
If we discount that setback, however, what I saw in the first fight was Rockhold’s ability to chip away with powerful left kicks, and when the fight hits the floor, continue to threaten from any position.
Weidman’s ability to bully opponents is second to none, which is due to his durability and his remarkable work rate. If he comes into this rematch with a little more in the tank, he could overwhelm Rockhold.
But their first fight will have filled the new champion with confidence, so he’ll settle into his rhythm and range much quicker. Weidman has to break that before he will have any success elsewhere. Rockhold is a momentum fighter and when he feels it shift in his favor he will chase the victory with a calculated ferocity.
Grounded
Decisive dominance
Rockhold won the first fight on the mat. He outlanded Weidman by 73 significant ground strikes to one in the third and fourth rounds before Herb Dean stopped the fight.
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