Issue 138
February 2016
Fabricio Werdum stole Cain Velasquez’s ‘baddest man on the planet’ title last summer, but can the former champ have his day again?
Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum 2
Fabricio Werdum became the new king of the heavyweight division in Mexico City in June with one of the most dramatic upsets of a stellar MMA year. His one-sided beatdown of Cain Velasquez made a bold statement about his growth as a fighter. But it was also a reality check for the former champion.
Altitude was blamed for Cain’s demise. The American Kickboxing Academy star, renowned for having the division’s best cardio, gassed out and was relieved of his belt in the third round courtesy of a guillotine choke.
But Velasquez was granted an immediate rematch and has the chance to erase the memory of his failure. He managed to avenge his only other career defeat, to Junior dos Santos, in devastating fashion. Twice. Can he do it again and reclaim heavyweight gold?
Or has Werdum, one of the sport’s most improved fighters, genuinely got his number? FO asks three top coaches to break down the contest.
Picking Cain Velasquez
Ricky Lundell
Grappling savant and MMA coach to elite clientele
Velasquez continued to push when he needed to take time off in Mexico City. He redlined too early and there were no adjustments made.
Cain fights with far too many strikes per minute to be able to consistently maintain that over a five-round fight, especially against a guy like Werdum. He needs to slow down his cadence and make sure he’s touching Werdum and moving.
The person who dictates this fight is whoever gets the advantage in the striking. They will force the other person to shoot and pull back the way that happened with Werdum vs. Overeem, where Werdum couldn’t handle the striking so started shooting and falling to his back. He will break eventually, and fall back to type.
We know when Velasquez is frustrated and overwhelmed his corner will tell him to keep pushing and he will eventually tire. If you can weather the storm, he will look for ways out of the fight by either getting knocked out or shooting to put him in a bad position. Cain will get out of position when he’s getting hurt and needs to put heavy influence on striking, making sure he controls the cadence and forcing Werdum to start trying to escape the standup. He will shoot, start pulling guard and Velasquez can breathe, control him and win the fight.
If I could give my advice (to Velasquez) I’d have held back on the fight a little bit in that second round. He could have got more gas and pushed back. The one who actually pulled back in the second was Werdum. He just let Cain throw and throw. He basically rope-a-doped Cain and got him to burn himself out.
Cain cannot make those mistakes. If he slows his pace and controls by touching and moving, Cain wins. I expect him to dominate the fight. I see him taking the fight by decision.
Picking Fabricio Werdum
Trevor Lally
Head coach at Arizona Combat Sports
Velasquez is going to have to come in with better pressure and head movement. Everything needs to be set up by his head movement. He needs to faint more this time as Werdum has improved his jab so much – as well as the punches that come after it.
Cain also needs to jab more – he should even double it. Obviously, the fence work is going to be important. Can Cain keep the fight there or can Werdum reverse it or even pull guard?
The takedown aspect is going to be a lot harder for Cain as Werdum works behind his jab now. It will be very difficult to score a takedown and keep him down because when you come in from such a long reach it’s easy for Werdum to start getting up. It’s never going to be smooth takedowns that you would get against someone with a shorter reach.
The boxing element is interesting also as Cain has to deal with someone who has reach on him, vastly improved his hands and is not afraid to trade. Cain also has to fix his clinch work and work more efficiently inside the clinch.
I was one of Cain’s first coaches and the dude’s always in shape so I don’t know if he took the last fight lighter than normal, but the altitude maybe played a part too. Styles make fights too and maybe Werdum has Cain’s number. Maybe.
A lot depends on Cain’s camp: is he getting the best boxing training because his boxing hasn’t evolved since his first fight. If his boxing starts evolving he’s going to be a monster. He needs to work on his head movement because it’s always been a little stiff. He moves his shoulders rather than his head. I don’t think it will go the distance and I’d put my money on Werdum.
Picking Fabricio Werdum
Ryan Parsons
Team Quest’s illustrious head coach
What makes Fabricio Werdum unique is he can finish the fight on his feet, on top or on his back. He’s probably the only fighter in the heavyweight division at the championship level who can do that. Cain Velasquez is a wrestler who likes to get on top.
Werdum is the only fighter I’ve seen that ground ‘n’ pound doesn’t work on because his limbs are so long and he’s got a unique guard that he uses to create space and he can use his long arms to control the distance better.
The altitude issue was certainly a factor last time because Cain is largely known as a cardio guy, so this is the wild card in this fight. How does Cain perform at sea level? Can Cain keep a hard pace for five rounds? That’s what he has to do to win.
Fabricio has momentum and confidence on his side, which means a lot. Werdum will come into the fight relaxed and confident. He can fight on the ground and keep it standing so it doesn’t matter to him where it goes.
My guess is Cain will have to use the cage to slow Werdum down, but the risk of him doing that is the champ can pull guard and be really effective with it. I don’t know if there’s a more interesting stylistic fight out there.
Losing a fight in the UFC is a significant life experience and you just don’t know how Cain is going to respond. He’s clearly a winner, he comes from a great camp, but it’s going to be interesting to see if his game plan or mindset changes knowing the guy he’s facing finished him the last time and took away his belt.
At this level it comes down to how each athlete can perform under the stress of the moment. I like Werdum for that because no one thought he would do it in the first fight and he showed he can deal with the pressure.
Upset potential
+120 live dog
Werdum was a +365 underdog before he challenged Velasquez at UFC 188. The champ gets another chance to upset the odds at UFC 196 after opening at +120. Velasquez is a -140 favorite.*
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