Issue 131

August 2015

UFC bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw humiliated Renan Barao when they first met, but does the Brazilian have what it takes to get the belt back?

No one gave TJ Dillashaw a chance when he stepped in to fight Renan Barao at UFC 173. There was no doubting the TUF 14 runner-up’s potential, but he was a heavy underdog against a man who was considered to be near the summit of the pound-for-pound rankings after building a nine-year undefeated streak. 

But the Team Alpha Male standout shocked the world with one of the most complete mixed martial arts performances the sport has ever seen. He dropped the Brazilian champion in the first round and then had too much speed, movement and power as he battered Barao around the Octagon and finally pounded him out to claim the belt. The MMA world stood up and took note: TJ Dillashaw was for real. 

The pair were supposed to rematch in August, but Barao was hospitalized when his weight-cut went awry and the fight was canceled and a war of words began. Dillashaw said he ‘mentally broke’ the Nova Uniao standout in their first encounter, who now didn’t want to fight him. That got under Barao’s skin. He said his rival isn’t a real champion, he’s just ‘a joker’, and the belt would return to Brazil with him after their second encounter. 

With the heat turned up, anticipation for this fight is at an all-time high. But who will come out on top? Was the course of the first fight turned by a lucky first-round punch? Can the titleholder make lightning strike twice? Or can Barao adjust and come up with a strategy to reclaim the belt? 

It’s a fascinating matchup – one that needs some expert analysis to come up with a definitive answer to these championship-caliber questions. So who better to turn to for a verdict than three men who all have experience in the corners of champions. 

They break down what to expect wherever the fight goes on July 25th, and ultimately who will have their hand raised as MMA’s undisputed king of the bantamweights.

FO speaks to three of the leading coaches in the game to get their thoughts and predictions ahead of the UFC bantamweight division’s most eagerly-anticipated rematch.

BJJ

Firas Zahabi, head coach at Tristar MMA

“On the ground, I believe whoever’s on top will have the advantage in this fight. If TJ takes the fight to the ground, then Barao has the ability to scramble up to his feet or maybe get a sweep. Despite being a black belt we rarely see him on his back. I believe the guy on the bottom will either get up or get controlled.

“If Barao is on top he’ll have the edge and, likewise, if Dillashaw is on top he will have the edge. They’re both seasoned grapplers, the difference being Barao’s background is jiu-jitsu and TJ’s background is wrestling. If this was a jiu-jitsu match then Barao all day, but it’s not, it’s MMA and across the board Dillashaw has proven he’s got a little more in other areas already.”

STRIKING

Mike Winkeljohn, head striking coach at Jackson-Wink MMA 

“What I noticed during their first fight was Dillashaw’s footwork, and that he was in the right place at the right time. It was ingenious because he was the leader and he will continue to be the leader unless Barao adds more feints and fakes to his game. He’ll need to cut him off next to the cage so he can use his strength against him. However, if he doesn’t it’ll go a lot like the first fight. 

“The importance of being the leader during a fight can’t be overestimated because you’re wearing small gloves, so there are so many different opportunities compared to all the other sports. If you can be unpredictable and you can make people react to you then the world is your oyster when you want to strike. 

“Barao needs to improve his game planning. He needs to know how to shut down rather than wait and react. He has to keep Dillashaw from making him react to what he does, so he can slowly move into range. That way he can strike how he wants to strike and move the fight to where he can get a takedown. 

“It’s a little thing, but putting the percentages of an advantageous position on your side rather than the other guy’s side is imperative.”

WRESTLING

Jamie Franco, wrestling coach at Longo-Weidman MMA

“Neither of them really give up takedowns but Barao overcommitted when trying to defend Dillashaw’s shots last time. He bit on a lot of the fakes and that’s how Dillashaw landed a lot of his punches. It’ll be interesting to see whether Dillashaw switches up his game plan to wrestle more or if Barao allows him to get in on his legs so the fight can go to the ground. But Barao couldn’t really catch Dillashaw. 

“That one big punch Dillashaw landed in the first round was really the deciding factor. He really had Barao hurt for the rest of the fight and I’m not sure if we saw the real Barao after that. It will be interesting to see how Barao approaches this one. 

“Dillashaw was way too fast for him and he couldn’t get his hands on him. So it’ll be interesting to see if Barao attempts to take Dillashaw down and use his jiu-jitsu. Barao needs to work on his speed, cut the cage off and get to Dillashaw. Dillashaw was in and out, circling, and Barao couldn’t get his range. Every time he tried to attack, Dillashaw was gone. 

“But Dillashaw likes to jump in and out of range and there’s an opportunity there. He lands really heavy on his front foot when he’s jumping in and out, so if Barao and his team can work on timing that then they could get a takedown pretty easily. 

“If Barao doesn’t get hit, it’s a totally different fight. I don’t quite know how Barao is going to be able to close the distance, and in the first fight TJ was just too quick for him. But whoever lands the punches wins this fight, and Dillashaw has a game plan to beat Barao already.”