Issue 111

February 2014

Could the two-time heavyweight king beat up another boy from Brazil? Or would Werdum be performing a samba after dancing all over Velasquez? 

Two-time UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez (13-1), a 31-year-old Mexican-American wrecking machine, seems, outside the Octagon at least, to be a very nice man. So quite what he has against Brazilians is unclear, althoughhe does seem to specialize in beating them up.

Since February 2010, he’s fought just one non-Brazilian (when he battered Brock Lesnar at UFC 121 to first win the title) losing once to Junior Dos Santos but knocking the stuffing out of him twice in rematches, slaughtering Antonio Silva in a bloodbath then mauling him in a pointless championship repeat and flattening Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in just over two minutes. 

So who’s next? Well, it could be yet another Brazilian. Pride and Strikeforce veteran and garishly decorated, truly world class Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) may next have chance at possibly the sporting world’s most poisoned chalice – a UFC heavyweight title shot.

The 36-year-old conqueror of Fedor Emelianenko in a stunning 69-second upset in 2010, Werdum has also used his submission skills to finish off some other notable fighters, including Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Alexander Emelianenko, Alistair Overeem and Tom Erikson. He’s also recorded stoppage wins over Gabriel Gonzaga (twice) and Brandon Vera and decisioned Antonio Silva and Roy Nelson.

Given his talent it seems odd that this would be the first major title challenge of Werdum’s near-13-year career in the ring and the cage. He’s been involved in major tournaments but never come close to the finals, dropping quarter-final decisions to Nogueira in the Pride 2006 open weight grand prix and a deathly dull three-rounder to Alistair Overeem in the shambolic Strikeforce tourney of 2011/12.

A worthy challenger, he’s gone 3-0 in his second UFC stint (he was 2-2 in 2007/08), winning in style against Nelson, a hopelessly overmatched Mike Russow and faded legend Nogueira. But how much of a chance would he really have of taking Velasquez’s title? 

While no heavyweight aside from Dos Santos has been able to beat Velasquez in the Octagon, what goes on in the training room could ultimately be his undoing. Cain is a truly ferocious, perhaps injury-prone competitor whose legendary work ethic and stamina stand out even at the renowned AKA gym in San Jose. 

The knee injury that may or may not have hampered him in the first Dos Santos fight was sustained in training and on at least two occasions he’s now injured his shoulder while giving his unfortunate opponent a severe beating: Brock Lesnar and, in his most recent drubbing of the otherwise excellent Brazilian, the third Dos Santos fight. 

For all the improvements he’s made to his striking game (see his merciless Muay Thai-tinged three-round smashing of the iron-chinned Nelson in February 2012), Werdum’s biggest advantage, and it appears his only advantage, would be his excellent submission pedigree. 

Offensively at least, Velasquez seems to consider a submission something students do with essays. For him, they just don’t seem to be a technique he considers using. But that doesn’t mean he’s some kind of mid-’90s throwback who wouldn’t know a wristlock from a wristwatch. 

Velasquez is well-schooled in submission defense, even if no one has ever put him in any kind of real danger on the mat in his eight-year pro career. 

And if Velasquez wanted the fight to remain standing, as he did while thrashing Dos Santos twice over almost 10 punishing rounds, his strength and his wrestling skill should ensure the fight stays wherever he pleases.

Both men have shown some great work in the clinch during previous fights. Werdum, who uses his height and leverage well in battering opponents with knees, is certainly a more varied striker than the right-and-left-hand-happy champion, but could he hope to match Velasquez’s unrelenting workrate and stamina? No one else has.

Werdum owns a history of fading in the later rounds and has never even had to go beyond 15 minutes. If Velasquez dragged him into that deep water, you should expect another challenger-savaging at the hands of the most destructive heavyweight in MMA history.