Issue 109

December 2013

Desperate times call for desperate measures, so which of these two heavyweights will find the edge to avoid the chop at UFC 169?

With UFC president Dana White declaring that the loser of this big-name heavyweight clash will “definitely” have their UFC contract cut, the stakes could barely be higher for the former UFC heavyweight champion and the fighter many once expected to walk into the Octagon and take over the division.

Mir (16-8) holds the record for most UFC heavyweight fights and has been with the company since he burst on to the scene as a supremely confident 22-year-old back in 2001. It took Overeem (36-13 1 NC) until the age of 31 to make his UFC debut when he obliterated Brock Lesnar, sending the former champion into fighting retirement and towards a lucrative second run as a WWE superstar. Or did he?

Dissatisfied with the way Overeem complied with a pre-fight drug test, the Nevada State Athletic Commission granted him only a temporary license for the Lesnar fight with the proviso he passed a series of later tests. Yet, when the testers came calling in March 2012 during a press conference to promote his title shot at then-champion Junior Dos Santos, Overeem reportedly tried to flee the scene. Failing the subsequent test in a big way, his win over Lesnar should really have been reclassified a no contest.

Barred from applying for a new license for nine months, he returned in February 2013 against Antonio Silva and was thoroughly dismissive of the Brazilian giant in pre-fight interviews, at the weigh-in and during the fight itself. That was until he gassed out in the third round of their clash, leaving him easy prey for what remains, in a year of great finishes and big upsets, one of the best and biggest of both. Before that, Overeem had gone undefeated for over five years. And then, six months later, Overeem (once again the betting favorite) was flattened by a Travis Browne front kick and finished with punches in the first round.

But Mir has problems of his own. A fighter whose best days are perhaps behind him, he’s gone 0-3 in his last three, finished by Dos Santos in a title fight he had little business contesting, decisioned by a flat Daniel Cormier and quickly beaten by UFC returnee Josh Barnett. He’s looked impressive only in fits and starts for the last few years, dating back to his UFC 100 mauling at the giant mitts of Lesnar in 2010.

So who wins, earning the chance to try and once again become a factor in the UFC heavyweight division, and who finds themselves fielding calls from Bellator and/or World Series of Fighting by the time they get back to the locker room?

While most fighters might look to drag Overeem into the third round and exploit the stamina issues that have dogged his career, and only seem more apparent now he’s older and heavier, this might not be the best strategy for Mir. It gives Overeem longer to land the thunderous knees and punches that have helped him (along with an underrated submission game) finish 34 fights inside the distance. It also gives longer for Mir’s sometimes misplaced confidence in his own striking ability to take over, distracting from the obvious need to get Overeem on the mat. And Mir’s own gas tank has sprung many a disastrous leak in previous fights.

Overeem is a genuinely devastating striker, but one prone to overconfidence and defensive carelessness. Mir hits hard but has been stopped in seven of his eight defeats. Few would expect this fight to go the distance, even at three rounds. And even fewer would hope so, especially if they sat through Overeem’s turgid Strikeforce win over Fabricio Werdum in 2011, or an exhausted Mir slow-motioning his way to victory over Roy Nelson in the last two rounds of their fight that same year.

Both men have an easy arrogance about them that should add some major interest to the pre-fight hype, although given Mir’s use of the controversial TRT (testosterone replacement therapy) he’ll probably keep quiet about all the rumors and speculation about Overeem’s physique. But given their big personalities, their big names, the UFC hype machine and the near-guarantee of a conclusive finish, this might well end up being the most eagerly awaited clash imaginable for two fighters with a combined 0-5 record in their last five appearances.