Issue 106

October 2016

Which of these heavyweight rivals will wrap up the hard-hitting UFC title trilogy in October on a winning note?

Fighting for the third time in just under two years, the sport’s two pre-eminent heavyweights square off in a highly awaited rubber match. Two-time and reigning champion Cain Velasquez (12-1) and previous title-holder Junior Dos Santos (16-2) are not only the best big men in the sport today, they’re the two best heavyweights in MMA history. 

No matter what misty-eyed Pride FC fans might think, neither Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ nor Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira were as dominant as Cain or Junior. And that era’s most celebrated heavyweight, Fedor Emelianenko, whose top-flight career effectively ended a few months before the first Velasquez-Dos Santos clash, would probably have been outclassed on his feet by Dos Santos and mauled by Velasquez, even at his best.

First time around in November 2011, headlining the first UFC event on Fox in front of almost 10 million viewers, both men went into the Octagon with injuries severe enough they possibly would (and should) have pulled out of a lesser occasion. In a long fight, both men were likely to have been hampered by their knee injuries but the fight only went 64 seconds, ending when Dos Santos landed a big overhand right behind the ear and then finished the stunned champion with punches on the ground.

Thanks to that result and his epic, nine-fight UFC winning streak that included a dominant title defense victory over Frank Mir, Dos Santos went into their December 2012 rematch as both champion and betting favorite. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, he ran into Mexican-American Velasquez at his destructive, overwhelming best. 

Hammered repeatedly with punches by the relentless challenger for the first two rounds, Dos Santos went into the third looking as if he’d been made up by an overzealous movie make-up artist whose only reference point for fighting was Rocky films. 

And Velasquez, who set such a frenetic pace that even he, legendary cardio and all, looked exhausted in the fourth, dominated the final three rounds as well, earning the most lopsided judges’ verdict in UFC title fight history, with scores of 50-45, 50-44 (both somewhat generous) and 50-43.

In 22 UFC fights (11 each) between them, exactly half have ended in the first round and these two have only ever lost to each other inside the Octagon. Dos Santos has finished off Fabricio Werdum, Stefan Struve, Cro Cop, Gabriel Gonzaga, Mir and Mark Hunt whilst Velasquez has stopped Ben Rothwell, Nogueira, Brock Lesnar and Antonio Silva (twice). And between them, they’ve recorded decision wins over Roy Nelson (Junior), Shane Carwin (Junior) and Cheick Kongo (Cain). 

Both men have been integral parts of the UFC heavyweight division for years now and with no credible rival promotion to try and tempt them with big-money offers, neither looks like going anywhere for a long time. Unable to find opponents willing to face him on smaller shows, Velasquez signed a UFC contract in early 2008 after just two professional fights whilst Junior debuted a few months later as a 24-year-old with a 6-1 record. At 29 and 31, it’s not just conceivable but likely that Dos Santos and the older Velasquez will meet at least a couple more times, since it’s difficult to imagine either man being far from title contention. 

But how will this third meeting go? Dos Santos proved the granite-chinned Velasquez could be stopped (Kongo put him down repeatedly by countering reckless takedowns but Velasquez popped back up) and has the power and skill to repeat the trick. But Cain was completely and totally in control of the rematch for a full 25 minutes against a competitor who had never even vaguely been in trouble as a UFC fighter.

What can Dos Santos do differently this time? Immediately after the second fight, JDS felt he concentrated too much on defending takedowns, leaving him open to taking punches to the face. But if he neglects takedown defense he’ll find himself on his back and at risk of the kind of ground ‘n’ pound mauling Velasquez dished out to Antonio Silva in both their fights. Expect fireworks, ferocity and another victory for Velasquez.