Fighters Only

Issue 094

November 2012

FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts

First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

A two-time nominee and one time winner of the FO World MMA Awards ‘Fighter of the Year’ statue, and a three-time Rogers Sportsnet Canadian Athlete of the Year, two-time UFC welterweight champion Georges St Pierre’s accolades extend beyond those of almost any other mixed martial artist. Even unproven accusations of greasing and a string of tactically smart but hellishly boring decision wins have done little to dent his mainstream popularity. But, after the longest layoff of what seems to be an increasingly injury-riddled career, the 31-year-old (22-2) may be in for an unpleasant surprise when he steps back into the Octagon almost 18 months on from his slow-paced and thoroughly disappointing win over Jake Shields in front of over 55,000 fans. His opponent, Carlos Condit (28-5), earned the interim title belt with a suitably GSP-like decision win over a frustrated but thoroughly outfought and out-thought Nick Diaz in February. And ‘The Natural Born Killer’ may just be the man to take the Canadian hero’s title. GSP has had more UFC title fights (12) than Condit has had UFC fights (6) but Condit, also a long-time student of Greg Jackson, has had more overall fights, despite starting his professional career some eight months after St Pierre. While GSP, for all his incredible physical gifts, has become a safety-first, wrestling or jabbing decisioner, Condit has won 26 fights inside the distance (22 of those in the first round), largely thanks to his slick submissions and his fast, fluid and crowd-pleasingly diverse striking. The only man to knock out Dan Hardy or Dong Hyun Kim, Condit is also the only man to beat GSP’s training partner and Canada’s next presumed 170lb superstar, Rory MacDonald. However, as good as Condit is, St Pierre will likely – even coming off a very, very serious knee injury – go into the fight as a heavy favorite thanks to his habit of completely neutralizing and/or dominating some of the very best welterweights in the world. Since his shocking April 2007 title loss to Matt Serra, GSP has barely been challenged or troubled by Josh Koscheck (especially in their rematch), Matt Hughes, Serra, Jon Fitch, BJ Penn, Thiago Alves, Hardy and Shields. Since GSP usually does a superb job of out-striking wrestlers and out-wrestling strikers, Condit will likely be added to that list if he can’t stop St Pierre’s takedowns. But will the French-Canadian have anything like the same explosiveness after the knee injury? And how cautious and rusty will he be after such a long absence? Condit may never have a better chance to beat St Pierre, even if it does mean stealing a decision victory by the narrowest of margins.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

St Pierre is a well-schooled striker with a well-rehearsed playbook of techniques, like his trademark superman jabs and crosses, and a variety of other low kick set-ups from Kru Phil Nurse. For such a skilled striker, St Pierre has racked up relatively few knockouts when taking into account the sheer dominance of many of his performances. The exceptional power that characterizes his wrestling has not quite crossed over to his punching, with many of his stoppages coming from minutes of attrition, thanks to his superb work rate. GSP’s conditioning is never in doubt, and paces himself supremely well in title fights.

Condit is perhaps a more ‘natural’ striker, with a keen feel for the distance and placement of his knees and kicks. He’s built for Muay Thai, with his long limbs and height. Although by no means the fastest athlete in the welterweight division, far slower than GSP, Condit compensates with impeccable timing. His double hook against Hardy was unforgettable.

Expect St Pierre to use his in-out footwork to pick at Condit with his jab without engaging in a straight blow-for-blow trade. Condit is not the greatest of defensive wrestlers, and will probably try to use footwork and the threat of the knee to dissuade GSP from shooting in. St Pierre’s shot has proved unstoppable for even the likes of Koscheck, and Condit, who has always demonstrated a willingness to go to his guard, may well elect to forego spending much energy on takedown defense and try to fight GSP from his back. Expect GSP to shoot the double and look to pass to half guard then side control whilst working his ground ‘n’ pound.

UFC 154

November 17th Montreal, Canada

Georges St Pierre vs. Carlos Condit

04/11

Georges St Pierre hasn’t fought since April 2011, which means, come UFC 154 in November, he won’t have stepped inside the Octagon for 18 months and 18 days. It’s the longest layoff of his career.

Despite being labeled cautious, St Pierre ranks fifth in the UFC for most submission attempts with 22.

In eight WEC and UFC wins, Carlos Condit has got the ‘W’ despite his opponent scoring more takedowns.

Condit has only entered the championship rounds on two occasions: against Nick Diaz at UFC 143, and Miromitsu Miura at WEC 35. His opponent, Georges St Pierre, has gone into the fourth or further in each of his last six fights.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

79%

Condit has just two decision wins (and five losses) in 33 fights, for an astonishing finish rate of 79%.

Strikeforce: Cormier vs Mir

Date TBC, Venue TBC

Daniel Cormier vs, Frank Mir

It was around 11 years ago when Cormier took second in the nation at 184lb in the NCAA Division I wrestling finals.

1st

Frank Mir’s Strikeforce dip is the first time a UFC-contracted fighter has competed in the Strikeforce ring.

100%

All six (or 100%) of Frank Mir’s losses have come by (T)KO.

2,995

Daniel Cormier’s MMA career is 2,995 days shorter than Frank Mir’s.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

After winning the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix in style by dominating Josh Barnett, it was always going to be tough finding immensely likeable 33-year-old Daniel Cormier (10-0) a decent challenge in this, the last ever, Strikeforce heavyweight fight. So, in steps perennial UFC contender Frank Mir (16-6) for a fascinating cross-promotional battle.

A truly gifted submission artist, Mir nonetheless looks unlikely to wear UFC gold again, given his last three title challenges all ended in painful stoppage defeat at the fists of Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin and Junior Dos Santos. Cormier though, may well be on track for a UFC title win sometime in the next two years. He is short for a UFC heavyweight, and if not for a frightful weight-cutting experience that cost him a very real chance at a 2008 Olympic freestyle wrestling medal, could fight at light heavyweight.

Mir, should have a hefty size advantage, but he’s not as fast, his striking is nowhere near as crisp and whether the AKA fighter decides he’s standing or he’s taking Mir down and pounding on him, there’s precious little the former UFC champ can do about it. After looking so impressive against Barnett, expect Cormier to cement his position in the upper ranks of the UFC heavyweight division before he even steps foot in the Octagon with a first or second-round stoppage victory.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

The conundrum this fight presents as a ‘wrestling vs jiu-jitsu’ match is this – Cormier certainly has the ability to take Mir down, but what will he do to this celebrated black belt once he gets there? He will probably struggle to pass Mir’s guard, and simply work ground ‘n’ pound from the guard or half guard.

Likewise, or rather, the reverse, can Mir manage to take down this two-time Olympian. Mir was subject to much criticism of his conditioning, having coasted on ability and talent for a long time. He responded by embarking on a much publicized strength and conditioning regime that predictably improved his wrestling ability. In spite of all that, it’s likely a shot from Mir early in the fight will fail, again leaving him to go to his guard or be stuck in the turtle and have to face Cormier’s ground ‘n’ pound.

In terms of striking, Cormier has the ‘wrestler’s prerogative’ on his side: the ability to decide where the fight takes place. Cormier’s striking is a superb blend of boxing with wrestling clubbing, as he switches fluently between throwing punches and snapping his opponent down, clubbing on their collar and punching again. He constantly upsets their base as he dirty boxes in the style of the great MMA wrestlers like Dan Henderson. Mir’s stand-up is distinctly different, karate kickboxing from his father mixed with western boxing. He kicks high comfortably with both legs, and has a distinct reach advantage on the squat Cormier. Mir uses his knees very well, KO’ing ‘Cro Cop’ and punishing Roy Nelson. Expect him to throw right knees if Cormier reaches up to snap his collar down.

23lb

Judging by their last weigh-ins, Daniel Cormier (238lb) will concede 23lb in weight to Frank Mir (261lb).

UFC 154

November 17th, Montreal, Canada

Johny Hendricks vs. Martin Kampmann

127-13

Two-time NCAA Division I wrestling champion Johny Hendricks finished his collegiate grappling career with a 127-13 record.

44%

Hendricks has successfully completed only 44% of his UFC and WEC takedowns.

Of Martin Kampmann’s five losses, four have come against men who have challenged for UFC and/or Strikeforce titles (Paul Daley, Nate Marquardt, Diego Sanchez, Jake Shields).

Kampmann has been a constant employee of the world’s leading MMA promotion, the UFC, for six years. He made his debut at UFC Fight Night 6 in 2006.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Squaring off with a UFC welterweight title shot on the line, Martin Kampmann (20-5) and Johny Hendricks (13-1) are two of the division’s more dangerous fighters. Since losing to Rick Story in late 2010, Hendricks has gone 4-0, brutally flattening TJ Waldburger and Jon Fitch in 95 and 12 seconds respectively and scoring close decision wins over the tough but unspectacular Mike Pierce and former title challenger Josh Koscheck. A two-time NCAA wrestling champion with heavy hands, Hendricks has already racked up an impressive 8-1 UFC record, but Kampmann, a slick, resourceful striker, has the experience.

One of Europe’s more successful fighters, the Xtreme Couture Dane has been a UFC regular for over six years, amassing an 11-4 record and beating the likes of Carlos Condit, Paulo Thiago, Story, Thiago Alves (in a fight Alves was winning before being neatly guillotined after charging headlong into a late third round takedown attempt) and Jake Ellenberger. Most tipped Ellenberger, a strong wrestler, to beat Kampmann, but the Dane kneed him right out of title contention in the second round. Kampmann is the more technically skilled striker, but Hendricks has plenty of power and that, along with his superb wrestling, may just give him the edge.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Hendricks’ collegiate wrestling resume speaks for itself – and if further proof were needed, he’s coming off a decision win over former 170lb number-one contender Koscheck, one of the division’s premier takedown artists. His striking is powerful, if not particularly pretty, due to his punching with the typical wrestler’s force; he clubs and wings in hooks with strong, fast rotation. He sometimes looses his stance as he hooks left and right, and is left standing square on. Whereas Hendricks essentially sticks to using his hands, Kampmann brings a far greater variety of work. The Las Vegas-based European is simply a more schooled striker, with an accomplished Thai boxing background.

And Kampmann is not without wrestling skill of his own, after many years training at Xtreme Couture, previously the home to skilled grapplers such as Gray Maynard, Michael Chandler and, of course, Randy Couture. Unsurprisingly, for a man of his height and Muay Thai disposition, he tends towards upper-body throws, grasping a body lock and bumping the legs with his knees.

Defensively, Kampmann is often content to give away takedowns on his legs, but use his long arms to wrap up a front headlock and reverse or finish with a guillotine – as he did against Thiago Alves last time out. In fact, his last three sub wins have all come from his guillotine. In terms of MMA math, Hendricks’ sole loss came at the hands of Rick Story, who Kampmann defeated at UFC 139.

Between them, Johny Hendricks and Martin Kampmann have earned six Zuffa ‘…of the Night’ bonus checks for evening-best finishes or fights.

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