Issue 092
September 2012
FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.
JON JONES (16-1-0) VS DAN HENDERSON (29-8-0)
UFC 151 September 1st, Las Vegas, Nevada
The bigger picture
Having vanquished Rashad Evans with ease, the man who apparently had that one thing to really test the seemingly superhuman UFC light heavyweight champion, Jon ‘Bones’ Jones (16-1) faces another in what looks like an increasingly hopeless string of challengers. Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua was too versatile a striker, too destructive and too experienced. Jones obliterated him inside three rounds. Quinton Jackson was too powerful, too tough and too good at applying his wrestling to MMA. Jones outclassed, humiliated and tapped him out inside four rounds. Lyoto Machida was too fast, too elusive and too unorthodox. After a somewhat shaky first round, Jones left him in an unconscious heap in the second. Former training partner Rashad Evans had too much inside information on Jones and knew his weaknesses. Jones was never in trouble and claimed a completely unarguable five-round decision win.
The 41-year-old Dan Henderson (29-8) is a 1992 (when Jones was five) and 1996 Greco-Roman wrestling Olympian, a 1994 and 1996 World Cup silver medalist, a 1995 Pan-American Games bronze medalist, the UFC 17 middleweight tournament winner, the 1999 Rings King of Kings tournament winner, the only two-weight champion in Pride history and the former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion. The oldest, most decorated fighter Jones has ever faced, ‘Hendo’ also possesses a near-mythical ‘big right hand.’ Coming off one of the greatest fights in MMA history, a five rounder with ‘Shogun’ at UFC 139 that could easily have been a draw, Henderson was a middleweight as recently as April 2010 when he was seconds away from destroying Jake Shields in the first round but exhausted himself and dropped a decision. Can an undersized, practically elderly (by the standards of the sport) fighter with a tendency to grow tired by the third round really hope to take Jones’ title? Possibly not.
Henderson is a great wrestler. But Jones has never been taken down in the Octagon. Henderson has stopped, often brutally, 14 fighters with strikes (stoppage and submission) inside the distance. But no one has yet landed a truly heavy shot on Jones’ chin. Machida and Evans hit him hard enough to worry him, but nowhere near hard enough to really trouble him.
Aside from Anderson Silva, Henderson has never faced anyone with Jones’ inventive striking, speed, reach, athleticism and sheer talent. Jones should win, and win handily. Indeed, his biggest obstacle may not be Henderson, but himself. With his recent reputation-damaging drink-driving issues and there being a historic tendency of thoroughly dominant fighters to believe their own hype, a distracted, overconfident Jones losing this fight is not unfathomable. But on physical prowess alone, he should finish Henderson in the first three rounds.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Few can boast a CV like ‘Hendo’s. His record is a veritable who’s who of MMA greats across the middleweight, light heavyweight and even heavyweight divisions. His wrestling ability and raw punching power are unquestionable and even his chin remains solid. At 41 years of age, the major question surrounding Henderson is whether he has the gas tank for a five-rounder.
Although many would take his decision victory against Shogun as proof, it’s important to disregard the praise that was lavished on that fight, and note that the fourth and fifth rounds were simply a test of grit from two guys who were completely gassed. Shogun’s stamina is notoriously suspect, and the to-and-fro drama of the exchanges obscured the very slow pace.
Jones’ meteoric rise is an unprecedented success story, with each man in his path having been outmatched in almost every respect. His unorthodox techniques and unusually long range have left the baffled and frustrated on the outside, while in the clinch his Muay Thai strikes and brilliant sensitivity to balance see his opponents rag-dolled about, and on the mat he has been systematically dominant.
Could Henderson’s power, his brutal punches as he bulls forward and his great skill in upper-body tie-ups be the answer the riddle Jones poses? Many thought Henderson could be Anderson Silva’s kryptonite back in 2008, but it did not play out. Jones essentially poses the same problems, but in an even bigger package. Henderson no doubt has the wrestling credentials to contend with Jones; nobody can dispute his caliber in Greco-Roman. He does however cut a distinctly small figure at light heavyweight, and Jones, a colossal one.
Jones is the third longest reigning incumbent UFC champion, behind 170lb Georges St Pierre and 185lb Anderson Silva.
According to FightMetric, former Olympic wrestler Henderson’s takedown success rate is 11% lower than Jon Jones’.
Dan Henderson’s Octagon performances average out to 16 minutes 22 seconds, the third longest of all UFC fighters.
Dan Henderson has only one grappling submission win in 37 fights. It came back in 1997 in only his second bout.
Jon Jones’ reach is 13.5 inches longer than Dan Henderson’s – the greatest reach advantage Jones has ever experienced in the UFC.
RONDA ROUSEY (5-0-0) VS SARH KAUFMAN (15-1-0)
Strikeforce: Rousey vs Kaufman
August 18th, San Diego, California
THE BIGGER PICTURE
If Strikeforce women’s 135lb champion Ronda Rousey (5-0, all by first-round armbar) didn’t exist, some sports marketing genius would invent her. Then, for trying to convince anyone of the existence of a stunning, trash-talking, Olympic medalist who could win a significant title in her fifth fight, and in doing so, successfully headline a somewhat major Strikeforce show, scoring a nice TV rating and tons of positive press, he’d be laughed out the room. Well, she does exist. And she’s gone from a relatively unknown to MMA superstar in just a few months. Taking three back-to-back wins since losing the title Rousey now holds (to Marloes Coenen, who lost to Miesha Tate) Sarah Kaufman (15-1) has a huge edge in experience, and is simply a much better striker than Rousey. Lacking Rousey’s star power, she’s an excellent fighter whose performance in March actually topped Rousey’s main event win over Tate; her preliminary fight with Alex Davis was a full-scale, three-round war where Kaufman, her face badly rearranged, earned a very tough decision. Pitting Rousey’s judo credentials against Kaufman’s kickboxing, this should be another tremendous fight which ups the profile of some of the sport’s toughest and most entertaining fighters: the women.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Kaufman, although not the most comfortable-looking striker, is clearly well schooled, using short, measured footwork and carefully picked punches. She keeps her work compact, shortening up her punch a little, but ensuring she punches her weight and never gives away a free avenue to shoot in or underhook by keeping her wings tucked in tight on straights and hooks. She leads with the right cross a lot, kicking and kneeing rarely, and uses very little head movement, her defense relying on blocking and paying back rather than evasion.
Little mystery surrounds Rousey’s style and intentions. A judo fighter through and through, her goal is to tie up high, throw and finish by armlock regardless of who is in front of her. She indulges in many of the typical ‘no no’s’ of gi to no-gi grappling, wrecklessly executing hip tosses from a head lock, and throwing up armbars from wrist controls. Thanks to a generally higher skill level and athleticism beyond that of her opponents, she has rarely been punished for taking risks like this. Kaufman’s physical power ought not be discounted, though, in light of her (T)KO ratio (10 stoppages, five decision wins and only one loss, via submission), including the knockout of Roxanne Modafferi, from that memorable slam; further evidence of her capacity to contend with Rousey’s strength.
It’s quite probable Kaufman will want to stand with Rousey, fending off her attempts to tie up by going to the collars as she habitually does, rather than engaging in overhooks and underhooks.
In her longest fight to date, against Miesha Tate in March, Ronda Rousey connected with 90% of her strikes.
Sarah Kaufman was Strikeforce’s first 135lb women’s champion and held the title for seven months and 13 days.
Kaufman’s one loss on her record came by armbar submission, thanks to Marloes Coenen in October 2010.
BJJ brown belt Sarah Kaufman has won zero fights by submission.
Ronda Rousey’s complete mixed martial arts career, which includes three amateur and five pro fights, has lasted a total of 509 seconds
PAT CURRAN (17-4-0) VS PATRICIO FREIRE (17-1-0)
Bellator 73, August 24th, Venue TBC
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Coming off an uncomfortable-to-watch TKO win over motor-mouthed Greco-Roman wrestler and then-Bellator featherweight champion Joe Warren, two-time tournament winner Pat Curran (17-4) makes the first defense of his 145lb title just a few days shy of his 25th birthday. One of the best and most exciting young fighters outside the UFC, Curran, along with Eddie Alvarez (if he stays) and new signing ‘King’ Mo Lawal should be the faces of Bellator in 2013 as the promotion moves to a much higher profile position with Spike TV.
Challenger Patricio Freire (17-1) is, alongside brother Patricky, part of one of the most entertaining double acts in MMA. A ferocious Brazilian with one Bellator tournament win and one runner-up slot, he looked great winning the season four featherweight tournament but a hand injury forced him out of a title shot against Warren (the only man to ever beat him, in the season two final), who subsequently lost to Curran.
Much-anticipated by Bellator fans, this fight, and these two, deserve a far wider audience. Expect fireworks, non-stop action and an inside-the-distance finish, with Curran the slight favorite to retain.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Patricio ‘Pitbull’ Freire is the usual Brazilian package. He typifies the country’s take on Muay Thai: aggressive, coming forward almost at a sprint, he chops in his kicks to leg, body and up to the head with venom. His hands are sharp, as one expects of a Team Nogueira product, operating well on the inside with clean punch combinations. With his knockout power proven in both hands and legs, and his ability to finish fights with submission (be it chokes, leg or arm locks), ‘Pitbull’ can win from anywhere. Heavily built, his takedowns are powerful, but his defensive wrestling at a high level was exposed as a weakness by Joe Warren. Although Curran’s wrestling skills are not to be sniffed at, he does not demonstrate quite the same power and intensity in his shot as Warren.
Coming off two back-to-back knockout wins, including one over the aforementioned Joe Warren, Curran’s confidence in his power must be sky high. His best work all comes from his right side – the head kick that knocked out Marlon Sandro, the right hook that put Mike Ricci to sleep, and the knees, uppercuts and hooks that overwhelmed Warren – all the decisive shots come from the right.
Curran’s approach is, typically, a little more measured than the aggressive ‘Pitbull’ style, but when he engages he does so with intention.
Patricio Freire has a 94% win rate having won 17 of his 18 bouts.
Bellator featherweight champion Pat Curran has never been knocked out in his four-year pro MMA career.
Curran will have a four-inch height advantage over Freire, just as he did in his last outing – a third-round knockout over Joe Warren.
Just like Pat Curran, Patricio Freire has never been knocked out, but unlike Curran, Freire has also never been submitted.
Freire is Curran’s elder by just 55 days – both were born in 1987, Freire in July, Curran in August.
