Issue 095

December 2012

FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts

First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.

UFC on Fox 5

December 8th, Seattle, Washington

Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz

THE BIGGER PICTURE

At 27, the ‘other’ Diaz brother, Nate (16-7), is coming off the three best wins of his career for this, his first UFC title fight. Defending champion Benson Henderson (29 in November and 17-2) is making the second defense of the title he won from Frankie Edgar in February and defended, against Edgar, in a much-debated rematch. While most felt Henderson had beaten Edgar in their first fight – a close, tremendously hard fought five-rounder where ‘Smooth’ did the most damage – their second fight was a different matter. 

Henderson clearly took the first round and Edgar the second. But the remaining three were extremely close and, while the majority of fans saw it for Edgar, two of the judges ensured the champion retained. Not quite as thrilling as his classic battles with Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, Jim Miller and Clay Guida, his 10 rounds with Edgar continued his long run of 155lb crowd-pleasers that have confirmed his place as one of the most consistently entertaining fighters in the world. 

A huge lightweight, a punishing, diverse striker and seemingly impossible to submit these days, Henderson is at the very top of his game. Similarly, challenger Diaz has looked fantastic since making his return to lightweight after a 2-2 stint at 170lb. Outclassing and armbarring former Japanese superstar Takanori Gomi, completely outstriking and out-thinking Cerrone over three rounds and, last time out, handing the teak-tough Miller – who went the distance with Henderson – his first ever submission defeat.  

Taunting and continually outpunching Miller before the decisive second round guillotine choke, Diaz looked every bit a future champion. Also hugely experienced, The Ultimate Fighter season five winner made his professional debut as a teenager in 2004 and holds some impressive wins over Junior Assuncao, Alvin Robinson, Kurt Pellegrino, Guida and Melvin Guillard and, much like Henderson, has that wonderful habit of getting involved in excellent fights.

With his takedown defense, and his dangerous jiu-jitsu making opponents wary of the mat, his fights tend to stay on the feet, where he also excels with his rapid fire, accurate, relentless punching. Henderson’s last six fights have all gone the distance and triathlete Diaz never seems to tire, so don’t expect anyone to gas out here. In fact, barring a shockingly quick finish, more likely to come from Diaz, or a freak injury, this fight looks like being a long and exceptionally close and entertaining one, whoever wins.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Henderson represents the model of the true mixed martial artist with his seamless blend of wrestling, jiu-jitsu and kickboxing, packaged with truly individual flair. He hits a variety of takedowns, from body locks and single- and double-leg tackles, against the cage or driving from the center of the mat, he finishes with lifts, tilts and trips. His takedown defense is strong and creative, his defensive wrestling matching his offensive capability.

His ground game is fast and flowing, always looking to capitalize on an error from the opponent as he accelerates the match – hence the success he has with his trademark arm-in guillotines. Plus, his kickboxing is solid, and likewise possessed of individual flair and variety. From his southpaw stance, Henderson uses a lot of movement and foot speed, mixing body kicks and low kicks, knees and elbows with punches. He does his best work coming forwards and pressing the action.

Still in the shadow of his brother to some extent in spite of his own enormous success, the stylistic comparisons are inevitable. Nate uses the Diaz build in much the same way as his elder sibling. Whilst lacking that big one-punch stopping power, the ability to constantly pepper the opponent with hooks, straights and uppercuts whilst remaining out of range is a winning formula. Expect Henderson to charge him down to nullify his reach.

Diaz’s throws owe more to judo than wrestling, as he uses his long legs to step beyond his opponents and propel them over. However, Diaz pulling off a throw on Henderson seems unlikely, and more probably Henderson will initiate a takedown and Diaz will pull guard. Diaz’s guard for MMA is outstanding, minimizing ground ‘n’ pound and setting up his trademark triangle.

5

Ever-exciting Benson Henderson has won an impressive five ‘…of the Night’ bonuses in 11 WEC and UFC appearances.

0

Although Benson Henderson has no professional (T)KO losses, his record lists a strikes defeat as an amateur in 2006.

1,456

Nate Diaz has landed the most strikes in the UFC of any lightweight, save for BJ Penn, with 1,456 destination-finding hits.

9-3

Despite a full record of 16-7, Diaz is 9-3 in the UFC’s lightweight division split either side of a stint at 170lb.

19:00

Henderson has the longest average fight time of anyone in the UFC at 19 minutes flat.

TUF 16 Finale

December 15th, Las Vegas, Nevada

Shane Carwin vs. Roy Nelson

28

Shane Carwin has only fought once (against Junior Dos Santos) in the 28 months since his UFC 116 loss to Brock Lesnar.

7

Roy Nelson’s reach (73 inches) is seven inches shorter than Carwin’s (80 inches).

1

‘Big Country’ has only been stopped by strikes once in 24 bouts – due to the hands of former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski.

27%

Despite being known as grapplers, between them, Carwin (29%*) and Nelson (25%*) have a takedown completion rate of 27%.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Opposites attract, apparently. And you could barely find two heavyweights more different than the opposing coaches on the 16th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Heavily muscled, quiet wrestler Shane Carwin (12-2) and tubby, mullet-sporting, hobo-bearded attention hound Roy Nelson (17-7). A talented fighter, who looks anything but, ‘Big Country’ is a heavy-handed, wild-swinging puncher with surprising stamina and high-level submission skills. 

A frightening physical specimen with enormous fists, concussive power and great wrestling, Carwin’s stamina is more than suspect and he’s coming back after a long lay-off and major back surgery that would have ended most careers. Hardly a battle of up-and-coming talent, Nelson is 36 and Carwin pushing 38. With a 4-3 UFC record, Nelson has first-round stoppage wins over Brendan Schaub, Stefan Struve and Dave Herman but has been painfully taken apart (though not finished) by Junior Dos Santos and Fabricio Werdum. 

A former UFC interim champion, Carwin hasn’t won a fight since he pounded Frank Mir in the spring of 2010. He subsequently gassed out against Brock Lesnar and, looking much smaller than usual, was utterly dismantled, but also not stopped, by Dos Santos. A long fight favors Nelson but Carwin is exceptionally dangerous, for a while at least. Expect a fun, memorable scrap.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Carwin’s punching is inhibited by his overly muscled shoulders on the outside, but in the clinch he dirty boxes exceptionally well, letting rip concussive upper cuts whilst maintaining an underhook or collar tie on the other side. A former Division II wrestler, he uses his excellent forward drive to charge his opponents down with high doubles.

  What Nelson has is punching ability, not to be mistaken for boxing skill, yet that street fighter’s overhand right continues to pay dividends. The rippling mass around his midsection soaks up punishment and sprawls over his opponents when in top position, smothering and foiling attempts to escape.

 Carwin, on the other hand, is ripped around the stomach and broad across the shoulders but displays far less staying power than Nelson. In fact, Carwin has been stopped in the only two bouts that have ever gone beyond the first round. Having appeared dominant in the first round against Lesnar, he punched himself out. Whilst, Nelson has achieved knockout and sub wins in the third round on numerous occasions.

UFC of Fox 5

December 8th, Seattle, Washington

Mauricio Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson

3

All three of Alexander Gustafsson’s submission wins have come by choke. Both of ‘Shogun’ Rua’s two submission losses have also come by choke.

5

Five is both the difference in age and career length for Gustafsson and Rua. The Swede is both five years Rua’s junior and started his MMA career five years after Shogun.

86%

A ridiculous 86% of Shogun Rua’s wins have come by knockout or TKO. That’s good for third best on the planet, according to FightMatrix.

2009

Rua, on a one-fight ‘W’ run, hasn’t had two wins in a row since TKO’ing Mark Coleman and Chuck Liddell 2009.

315

‘Shogun’ Rua held the UFC light heavyweight strap for 315 days, from UFC 113 to UFC 128.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Fresh off his surprisingly tough fight against the light heavyweight division’s greatest hope unfulfilled in Brandon Vera, and then turning down a title shot at Jon Jones in the chaotic aftermath of the canceled UFC 151, ‘Shogun’ Rua (21-6) steps back into action in a fight where, oddly enough, a future title shot should be on the line. Needing almost four rounds to TKO Vera in August, Shogun will need a far more focused and controlled performance against one of the more dangerous young fighters at 205lb.  

With a near-unblemished record of 14-1, the 25-year-old Swede is unbeaten in his last five fights, finishing all but one inside the distance. Alexander Gustafsson is tall at six-foot-five, long-limbed and uses speed, movement and reach extremely well, as shown in his very clear win over Thiago Silva at home in April. So far, only Phil Davis, with a slick anaconda choke in April 2010, has beaten him. 

Rua, wracked by knee injuries and inconsistency, has had an up-and-down UFC career at or near the top of the division, going 5-4 but winning (from Lyoto Machida) and losing (to Jon Jones) the light heavyweight title. At 31, and with a punishing decade in the ring and cage, Rua is a huge test for Gustafsson but the younger, fresher fighter can take this one.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Ever since Shogun’s appearance in the UFC question marks have hung over his conditioning. Today’s Shogun looks notably softer around the middle and has consistently slowed down and struggled in the later minutes of the fight. Those who would point to his epic five-round battle with Henderson as evidence of his ability to fight beyond three-fives and into the championship rounds would do well to observe that both men gassed out and struggled on courageously, both entirely depleted.

Gustafsson wins out on reach against the shorter, more compact Shogun, but seems content to fight at quite close range, sneaking in uppercuts and hooks from up close with his long arms. He favors his hands over his kicks, for good reason, as his kicks look somewhat clumsy, and there is no shortage of evidence for the effectiveness of his punching, with nine of his 14 victories via (T)KO.

Gustafsson operates well from top position, taking advantage of his long, thin levers to hammer fist and punch head and body relentlessly. And whilst Shogun is often seen fighting from his back, though durable and competent from his guard and half guard, it would play into ‘The Mauler’s hands.