Issue 088
May 2012
FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.
UFC on Fox 3
May 5th, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller
16th
His fight against Jim Miller will be Nate Diaz’s 16th in the UFC Octagon, a streak that started when he won TUF 5 in 2007.
5
The lanky Nate Diaz will have a five-inch reach advantage over the stockier Miller. That’s one inch shorter than the advantage he possessed in dominating victories over Takanori Gomi and Marcus Davis.
0
In a 24-contest career, Jim Miller has never been knocked out or submitted. His three losses (Ben Henderson, Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard) were decisions.
8, 7
Miller has gone 1-1 in his last two bouts. The previous two occasions he lost a bout he went on an eight-fight, then a seven-fight win streak.
8
Diaz and Miller are both part of the eight sets of brother combos that have fought in the UFC.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
After the big Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos UFC on Fox debut last year left many unsatisfied following a 64-second knockout, it still smashed all TV ratings records for North American MMA. The second show ended with a flat five-rounder between Rashad Evans and an in-over-his-head Phil Davis. Now, for the third show, the promotion is banking on two top lightweight contenders battling for a title shot to both entertain the audience and pull ratings: Nate Diaz and Jim Miller, both of whom seem utterly incapable of having a dull fight. Entertaining the audience seems absolutely certain, while pulling ratings is a much greater gamble.
The sensible, dependable one of the Diaz family, Nate (15-7) turns 27 a few weeks before the fight and started his professional career while still a teenager. Like older brother Nick, he’s a superb grappler and a hugely effective, accurate puncher. He’s also coming off the two best performances of his career. At UFC 135, in his lightweight return after an ill-advised four-fight, 2-2 run at 170lb, he obliterated faded Japanese star Takanori Gomi inside a round. Then, at UFC 141, he picked up the fifth ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus of his six-year, 15-fight UFC career in a near-flawless decision win over Donald Cerrone. With those two wins, Diaz – who’s also beaten Kurt Pellegrino, Josh Neer and Melvin Guillard – catapulted himself into the lightweight title picture.
However, he’s had major difficulties with good wrestlers in the past – Clay Guida, Joe Stevenson and Gray Maynard all outmuscled and outwrestled him – and even at 155lb, he’s just 3-3 since the beginning of 2009.
Miller (21-3) is a good wrestler; not an elite wrestler, but very, very effective in MMA. He’s also a talented submission artist (12 tap out wins, compared to Diaz’s 10), has, like Diaz, great stamina, and holds some very impressive victories. Between his own decision loss to Maynard, which was largely fought standing, and his three-round thrashing from Ben Henderson, Miller won seven straight, beating the likes of Mac Danzig, Duane Ludwig, Mark Bocek, Gleison Tibau and Charles Oliveira. Aside from Maynard and Henderson, only Frankie Edgar has ever beaten him, when both were undefeated prospects on the New Jersey scene. Diaz has the skill to add his name to that very select list of fighters but he’ll need another exceptional performance to do it. As hard as it is to predict these things in advance, everything is in place for this to be one of the year’s very best fights.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Nate Diaz is cut from very much the same cloth as brother Nick, and his fighting style, like his attitude, polarizes fan opinions. Some lavish praise on the variety and volume of punches Diaz throws, others criticize the arm-punching style. Whatever your take, Nate Diaz gets results with his striking by playing an attrition game and causing frustration rather than banking on the one-punch KO.
His takedown defense isn’t the greatest, but when he does concede a takedown he is normally simultaneously on the attack, snaking his long arms and legs around the opponent. Although Diaz’s ectomorph build (long limbs, lean muscle) does not lend itself too well to the lift-and-slam wrestling style that is typical of the division ruled by the likes of Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, he does pull off some high amplitude judo throws thanks to his long levers, sinking the whizzer deep and reaping the outside leg.
Southpaw Miller does his best work coming forward and pressuring. Although his striking style is not beautiful to watch, his right hook, left cross combos followed up with aggressive knees do get results. Although his record shows few (T)KO finishes, his striking is effective in his overall strategy that leads to his high percentage of submission wins.
Against Diaz, Miller will lose out on reach, and will have to maintain his trademark intensity to outwork Diaz on the inside and on the mat. Miller’s wrestling is simple and effective, as he ties up high and drops to take the legs. He has a few standard finishes that he seems to prefer, such as the Barzegar, a head-on-the-inside single finishing on a double. Miller uses the arm-in guillotine to great effect when defending the takedown, either going to his guard or reversing his opponent onto their back.
UFC on Fox 3, May 5th, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks
4th
Johny Hendricks owns the fourth fastest knockout in the promotion’s history after he KO’d Jon Fitch in 12 seconds and UFC 141.
10%
With 67, Hendricks has attempted one more takedown in the UFC than Josh Koscheck but his completion rate is 10% lower.
10th
Josh Koscheck has accumulated the 10th-longest time in the Octagon with a total of three hours, 21 minutes and 40 seconds.
1
Koscheck’s record shows no submission, however he does have one loss due to a rear naked choke. Drew Fickett put ‘Kos’ to sleep with the hold in 2005 after halfway KO’ing him with a kick.
2009
Johny Hendricks was part of the last welterweight bout in WEC history before the plus-155lb divisions were absorbed into the UFC in 2009.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
The ever-controversial Josh Koscheck (17-5) was deemed extremely lucky to walk away from UFC 143 (his 20th fight for the company), with a split-decision win over Mike Pierce after a turgid performance most notable for repeated warnings from referee Herb Dean about eye poking. Johny Hendricks (12-1) also holds a split-decision win over Pierce, albeit a deserved one in a good fight that showcased his constantly improving striking. Speaking of which, the two-time national champion wrestler is coming off a truly stunning 12-second, one-punch KO of one of the division’s most battle-tested hard men: Jon Fitch.
Slowly dismantled over five rounds by Georges St Pierre in December 2010, Koscheck, at 34, and no longer training at AKA, may not have too many fights left, at least at this level. Undersized for the welterweight division, Hendricks is, by credentials, a truly elite wrestler who just doesn’t seem anywhere near as effective a wrestler in MMA. Thankfully, his striking is making up for that and Koscheck’s inflated sense of his striking prowess may ensure that a fight pitting two of the very best collegiate wrestlers to ever fight in the Octagon is decided largely on their feet. Look for the younger, hungrier, still-rising Hendricks to take a decision that puts him into the UFC welterweight title picture.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Having entered the sport with some of the best collegiate wrestling credentials in the UFC as a four-time NCAA All-American, Josh Koscheck has unsurprisingly established a position as one the most formidable takedown artists in the 170lb division, alongside champion St Pierre and former AKA teammate Fitch, who fell foul of Johny Hendricks’ left hand before any measure of Hendricks’ defensive wrestling ability could be taken.
Koscheck continues to grow in confidence and competence with his striking, having recognized early on the possibility of translating the driving power he harnesses for his leg tackles into delivering his right hand. He fights the archetypal mold of the boxer-wrestler perfectly: heavily built neck and shoulders, he crouches low, always ready to shoot or sprawl or let rip a bomb of a right hand.
Essentially a mirror image of Koscheck, heavy-handed lefty Johny Hendricks combines power punching and big takedowns to great effect. Somewhat less cautious and perhaps more aggressive than Koscheck, he lacks defense, but shoots effectively when pressurized. His shot doesn’t quite cover as much distance as Koscheck’s, but he works in close with his hooks and aggressive dirty boxing and has a tremendous lift.
UFC on Fox 3, May 5th, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson
8
From pro debut to UFC debut it took Lavar Johnson eight years and 12 days to fight in the world’s biggest promotion.
0
Across 21 bouts 34-year-old Johnson has never gone to a decision, win or lose.
15
Between his K-1 rules kickboxing past and current MMA career, Barry has 15 (T)KO wins to his name.
1
In the middle of a seven-fight win streak, Lavar Johnson suffered one gunshot to the abdomen during a 2009 shooting that left one person dead.
90%
A massive 90% of the strikes Pat Barry has landed in the UFC have occurred while the fight was standing.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
The judges may as well put down the pencils and papers for this one because in their combined 32 professional MMA fights, only Barry (7-4) has ever gone the distance – once. And that was a painfully clear victory in a leg-kick showcase against punishment sponge Joey Beltran, a man only Johnson (16-5) has ever knocked out.
A mid-level Strikeforce heavyweight not picked for the ill-fated and seemingly never-ending grand prix, Johnson survived a senseless 2009 shooting that almost killed him and returning to action just nine months later. He’s also known for being big, brutally heavy-handed, one-dimensional and having short, exciting fights. But, as dangerous as Johnson is, short, powerful, technically skilled former kickboxer and san shou competitor Pat ‘HD’ Barry is even more dangerous, as long as no-one tries any of that sneaky submission stuff. A hugely entertaining fighter, Barry has glaring deficiencies in his ground game but is one of the very best strikers in the sport and has faced and beaten far better fighters than Johnson. Both men are a long way from the top of the heavyweight division but, in opening such an important Fox TV special, they’re almost guaranteed to put on a spectacular show, ending with, of course, a knockout.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Even though he is a remarkably short heavyweight, Barry usually has little trouble kicking his opponents high to the head. At six-foot-four, ‘Big’ Lavar Johnson should make a difficult target for the high kick, so expect Barry to try to chop him down rather than fight up to him. A K-1 USA veteran before his mixed martial arts career, Barry is a kickboxer after the classic Dutch style. His schooling in Holland under the legendary Ernesto Hoost shows in his devastating leg kicks, with which he brings to bear all his body weight, even scoring a few knockouts in both MMA and kickboxing via low-kick. Barry’s other major weapon is his heavy right hand, which he often places forward, switching southpaw to catch his opponent with the lead right hook.
Johnson is by far the messier striker, often allowing one hand to drop whilst the other swings. In spite of a multitude of errors in Johnson’s footwork and defense, one simply cannot deny the man’s fight finishing punching power with a sensational 88% (T)KO rate in his 16 professional wins. Watch out for Johnson’s right uppercut. Barry, too, has a knack for finishing his opponents: six of his seven victories in MMA coming via (T)KO stoppage.
Likewise, both men’s weakness is the ground, and both have struggled to defend submissions in the past, Johnson suffering four of his five defeats by submission, Barry tapping out three times in four defeats.
