Issue 084

January 2012

FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts

JOSÉ ALDO vs CHAD MENDES // DANIEL CORMIER vs JOSH BARNETT // CARLOS CONDIT vs JOSH KOSCHECK

First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.

JOSE ALDO (20-1-0) VS CHAD MENDES (11-0-0)

UFC 142

January 14th, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

The bigger picture

The 26-year-old Chad Mendes was twice an All-American wrestler in 2005 and 2008, and now an unbeaten featherweight (11-0) he gets a title shot in his first appearance on a main UFC card. Both his fights since being transferred from WEC were televised preliminaries and both were comfortable decision victories against excellent grapplers. Content to keep the fight standing, Mendes picked apart Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Rani Yahya, an unthreatening striker. While on his UFC debut, he defeated Michihiro Omigawa. In his last two WEC fights, Mendes used his explosive takedowns to decision Cub Swanson and took all three rounds against veteran Javier Vasquez, winning several striking exchanges and defending well against submission attempts. Those four wins are impressive but they do bring his decision victories total to seven, raising some questions about his finishing skills and power. While Mendes hasn’t lost a round as a UFC fighter, Yahya momentarily dropped him and Omigawa, a world-class judoka, blocked several takedown attempts and shrugged off what looked like some heavy shots. And now Mendes faces the best featherweight in the world.

Fighting on home soil for the first time since March 2007, José Aldo (20-1) makes the third defense of his UFC title. Beaten just once, in late 2005, Aldo has rattled off 13 straight wins, looking unstoppable most of the way. However, based on the extraordinarily high standards he set while dominating the 145lb division in the WEC, some observers have raised questions about his two UFC title defenses. Despite punishing Mark Hominick early, Aldo tired and Hominick stubbornly pushed him all the way for five compelling rounds. The previous day, Aldo looked like the walking dead at a Q&A session, suffering from a harsh weight cut and a staph infection. He may simply be physically outgrowing the division and so finding it increasingly harder to cut the necessary weight, which could play a role in this January showdown. Most recently, against perpetual title challenger Kenny Florian, Aldo looked flat and drew boos from the audience in going the distance in a fight he clearly won but where he looked far from superhuman. But he didn’t tire as noticeably this time and even if his mask of invincibility has slipped a little, Aldo should still be the heavy favorite here, and against any featherweight for a while yet. He’s simply too good, too fast, too dangerous and should hand Mendes his first defeat.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Chad Mendes is a typical product of Team Alpha Male, a compact wrestler with an explosive and creative style. Mendes scrambles well and grabs guillotines after the mold of Alpha Male main man Urijah Faber, a former opponent of Aldo. 

Whilst his striking is secondary to his wrestling and ground ‘n’ pound, Mendes makes up for his short range and some technical shortcomings with explosive power and creativity, like the jump knee that troubled Michihiro Omigawa. Mendes leaps in on his punches, both compensating for his short limbs and adding weight to his shots.

Compared to Muay Thai expert Aldo though, Mendes’ striking is rudimentary, and it would be an obvious mistake to pin his hopes on out-striking his Brazilian counterpart. Aldo’s timing and power are second to none in the division, continually landing his thundering liver shot and leg kick combos on all comers. Expect Mendes to attempt his takedowns early on and keep Aldo on his back, where he suffered against Hominick.

A prolific finisher, Aldo’s career is littered with TKO, KO and submission stoppages, but has seen the judges’ cards three times in his last four outings, albeit picking up unquestionable unanimous decisions. Whilst it could be seen as symptomatic of moving up to the world’s highest level, Mendes himself contests that Aldo is “slowing down” and has lost some of the killer instinct of his early days. Whilst his record is unblemished, Mendes himself has finished only four of his 11 pro bouts, maintaining a strong pace to get the judges’ nod. Over five rounds his ability to keep up that pace and continue to score takedowns will surely be tested, with rounds four and five being familiar territory for the reigning champion.

Aldo has successfully defended a highly impressive 94% of takedown attempts – that’s better than UFC welterweight champion Georges St Pierre.

In six fights between the WEC and UFC Mendes has launched 40 takedown attempts, that’s 2.5 per round.

Chad Mendes placed second wrestling at 141lb in the 2008 NCAA Division 1 Championships.

A hefty 64% of Chad Mendes’ fights have gone to a decision, with Mendes getting the nod every one of the seven times.

José Aldo holds the record for the most consecutive WEC wins with eight victories in a row.

DANIEL CORMIER (9-0-0) VS JOSH BARNETT (31-5-0)

Strikeforce, Date TBC 2012,

Venue TBC

THE BIGGER PICTURE

In the final of the thoroughly cursed Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix – its suffered a high-profile participant drop-out, and the eyeball-attracting Fedor Emelianenko’s early exit – one of the initial favorites Josh Barnett (31-5) meets alternate Daniel Cormier. A star on the elite wrestling team at Oklahoma State who went on to represent the US at the 2004 Olympics and placed fourth, Cormier is 9-0 in MMA and coming off an impressive first-round destruction of Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva in September. A fantastic wrestler, Cormier’s wins over Jeff Monson and Silva showed off his fast-developing striking but former Pride FC star Barnett is by far the biggest test of his short fighting career. 

That said, Barnett is claimed in some quarters to be one of the most overrated heavyweights around. The gripe being that he always looks good battering average opponents but hasn’t consistently faced top opposition in years. Well-rounded, entertaining, suplex-happy and proficient in catch wrestling, the 34-year-old should be the favorite based on his experience, but Cormier is a dangerous fighter who could pull off the upset. Whoever wins looks UFC bound, but in the big league Barnett’s licensing issues (thanks to drug test failures) and Cormier’s five-foot-eleven frame (few top heavyweights are under six foot) may limit options and chances of title success.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

CSW representative Barnett’s style of catch wrestling is genuinely distinct from the standard Brazilian jiu-jitsu of most MMA fighters, but essentially he works best after scoring his takedown and taking the mount or back, positionally dominating his opponent before seeking the tap. His ground ‘n’ pound is respectable but not spectacular, and is mostly used to ‘soften up’ the opponent in order to attack the neck or arm for the submission. Barnett has had little challenge from his recent opposition once the fight hits the mat, and has maintained top position easily. Cormier presents much greater difficulty in this regard. Given the AKA man’s wrestling caliber, it is more likely that we will see Barnett on his back, not the position of choice for the catch wrestler.

Although improvements in his striking are clear over his illustrious career, Barnett generally still clinches at the first opportunity. He works best from upper-body tie-ups, often when he shoots for the legs he enters with poor posture and head position for such a high-level fighter. It will be tough for him to make a successful leg tackle on a wrestler of Cormier’s skill. In the case of Cormier, appearances are deceptive. Although the former Olympian appears sluggish, his reaction speed is extraordinary and he makes his takedowns appear effortless. Although his boxing is far from beautiful, he gets results with his brutal power, having picked up four wins via (T)KO.

Josh Barnett won gold at the 2009 No-Gi Jiu-Jitsu World Championships in the over 215lb category despite never formally studying BJJ.

Across a selection of FightMetric-analyzed bouts, Cormier has successfully completed only 27% of his takedown attempts, despite being a former Olympic wrestler.

Despite the five losses on his record, Josh Barnett has only been defeated by three men: ‘Big Nog’ once, Pedro Rizzo once and Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ three times.

Barnett will have a seven-inch reach advantage over Daniel Cormier. The latter suffered a differential five inches larger against ‘Bigfoot’ Silva but still knocked out his opponent on the feet.

Between his first bout, on September 25th 2009, and most recent fight, on September 10th 2011, Daniel Cormier has averaged 4.5 fights a year, or one scrap every 11 weeks.

CARLOS CONDIT (27-5-0) VS JOSH KOSCHECK (16-5-0)

UFC 143, February 4th,

Las Vegas, Nevada

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Riding a truly impressive five-fight (four inside the distance) winning streak, former WEC welterweight champion Carlos Condit (27-5) has had an interesting few months. Handed a UFC title shot against Georges St Pierre thanks to Nick Diaz’s unreliability in completing press conference obligations, the same opportunity was then snatched away due to GSP’s knee injury. When Diaz routed BJ Penn and got under GSP’s skin with his post-fight smack talk, based around alleging St Pierre faked his injury, Condit was shunted and instead risks his top-contender status against former challenger Josh Koscheck (16-5).

This is a very dangerous fight for Condit, although if Koscheck, one wrestler who seems to have fallen in love with striking, wants to keep it standing, the 27-year-old longtime protégé of Greg Jackson should pick him apart. But Koscheck’s wrestling is superb and he’s more than capable of physically dominating and controlling Condit as he did Paul Daley. A win for Condit, coming off those victories over Jake Ellenberger, Rory MacDonald, Dan Hardy and previously unbeaten Dong Hyun Kim, will solidify his status as a very real title threat to either GSP or Diaz. For Koscheck, another shot at GSP (who thoroughly dominated him in December 2010) is unlikely. But if Diaz beats St Pierre, Kos’ and Diaz would be a fascinating, lucrative fight.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Limited in his striking, Josh Koscheck is nevertheless effective, crouching low and setting up his jackhammer right hand with a pawing jab in typical wrestler/boxer fashion.

Condit stands with a high elevation, catching punches with open palms in his long Thai style guard. His tall stance lets him launch his long round kicks and front kicks from the back leg (and the big jump knees that put paid to Don Hyung Kim) but equally makes him an easy target for the leg tackle. Either Condit will have to change his stance and movement in anticipation of Koscheck’s skill with leg tackles, or accept his usual tactic, trying to sweep and submit from the guard, risking losing on points.

With even of submission and (T)KO wins, 13 of each, Condit has only been favored by the judges one time out of four, a split decision against Jake Ellenberger at UFC Fight Night 19.

Kos, the quintessential MMA wrestler, by contrast, tends to come out on top on the judges’ cards, an unsurprising trend given the general consensus in judging that being on top is winning, irrespective of damage caused or submissions attempted. Guard players like Condit, will lose decisions regardless of how much offensive effort is made. Whilst this trend may be controversial and costly to the entertainment value, Koscheck clearly has the better skill set to win on the cards. Having been stopped only once by submission, Condit has a difficult task to tap out Koscheck, and must plan to inflict damage with his Muay Thai.

Condit has fallen foul of 55% of takedown attempts on him during his UFC and WEC careers.

Condit has fallen foul of 55% of takedown attempts on him during his UFC and WEC careers.

Of Josh Koscheck’s 919 strikes thrown in the UFC he’s successfully connected on 37% of them, or on 344 occasions.

Josh Koscheck has fought an astonishing 19 times for the UFC since his debut with the promotion in 2005. That’s 90% of 21 career bouts and 7th best in the UFC

Carlos Condit has only ever lost once under the Zuffa banner – his UFC debut against Martin Kampmann. He’s beaten names like Dan Hardy, Rory MacDonald, Jake Ellenberger, Dong Hyun Kim and John Alessio