Issue 093
October 2012
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.
UFC 152, September 22, Toronto, Canada
Demetrious Johnson vs. Joseph Benavidez
1:1: Though Demetrius Johnson is one-inch shorter than Joseph Benavidez he will have a one-inch reach advantage.
2005: Johnson started training in MMA in 2005 after watching the first season of The Ultimate Fighter.
203: By fight night, Joseph Benavidez will have had to wait 203 days since his last bout, to contest the UFC 125lb title with Demetrius Johnson.
3: Three of Benavidez and Johnson’s four combined losses have come to one man: bantamweight champ Dominick Cruz.
77%: Despite coming from wrestler-heavy camp Team Alpha Male, 77% of Benavidez’s strikes in his last 11 fights have been thrown standing.
The bigger picture
At five-foot-three and five-foot-four respectively, Demetrius ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson (15-2-1) and Joseph Benavidez (16-2) are two of the shortest fighters on the UFC roster; and two of the fastest and most talented. This fight, for the first UFC flyweight title, the 125lb weight division being added early this year, would have happened in June, if not for one of those thankfully rare but still appalling officiating mishaps.
In the opening round of the four-man title tournament on March 3rd, Benavidez had little trouble battering aged Shooto champion Yasuhiro Urushitani, earning the third bonus of his WEC/UFC career with a second-round stoppage. Whilst Johnson battled talented oddball Ian McCall for a full three rounds. Many thought McCall – especially after a dominating third round where Johnson tired badly in his first fight at 125lb – had done enough to win, and the crowd booed the announcement of Johnson’s victory.
Unfortunately, the simple task of transcribing and adding the judge’s scores was hopelessly bungled by the Australian officials – the fight had actually been ruled a draw. Under the agreed tournament rules, that should have resulted in a fourth, deciding round, which McCall looked far more likely to win. The error was revealed far too late for that to happen so they fought again in June and this time, a smarter, fitter, better Johnson did more than enough to clearly earn the decision.
So, delayed but still highly anticipated, the two former bantamweight title challengers (both were outclassed over five rounds by Dominick Cruz) meet in a fight that promises plenty of fast, furious action, and probably five rounds of it. Neither man has ever been finished. Benavidez dropped two decisions to Cruz and Johnson also lost a judges’ verdict to the ever-entertaining Brad Pickett. But despite a combined 31 wins, they’ve just seven knockouts between them.
A student of pioneering fighter and trainer Matt Hume, Johnson has a very strong wrestling base, while Benavidez, a long-time teammate of Urijah Faber, is a skilled, energetic grappler and a hurtful striker. Neither are likely to tire (as long as they cut weight sensibly) no matter how brisk the pace of their fight.
They are exceptionally well-matched, very talented fighters. Whoever wins, at 26 and 28, Johnson and Benavidez, even with the traditionally shorter careers of lighter weight competitors, have plenty of time left in the cage, and as two of the elite fighters in a somewhat sparsely populated division, are very likely to meet again.
Technical breakdown
Comparisons between Benavidez and his Team Alpha Male boss Urijah Faber are inevitable. Cut from the same physical mold, the short, heavily muscled Benavidez lifts with the body lock, slams his opponents with lightning-fast leg tackles and scrambles intensely just like Faber. His choice of ground techniques comes straight from the Faber playbook, with a preference for chokes and a rapid guard-pull with the guillotine.
Johnson too is a master of the guillotine choke, picking up ‘Submission of the Night’ honors for his spectacular stoppage of Damacio Page with the reversal and finish from the mount. Benavidez works primarily from orthodox but is not averse to switching southpaw to try his luck from a reverse stance. Regardless of the stance he adopts, though, he banks on the right hand to do his most effective work.
Much like Benavidez, Johnson operates best coming forwards. He eats up the distance with tight hand combinations, twisting his torso to generate power. Sometimes he does so overzealously and pays the price by charging into a takedown. His habit of finishing his hand combinations with a kick or his trademark jump knee can sometimes pay dividends, but also contributes to giving away the occasional takedown, as happened a few times with McCall.
Both men’s records tell a similar story, with only two losses a piece, it has been the unconventional Cruz that handed Johnson one of his (the other defeat coming at the hands of Brit Brad Pickett), and both times for Benavidez, Cruz has been his kryptonite.
With both men here being short, stocky pressure fighters, Benavidez looking for his powerful, driving takedowns and Johnson looking for his big knee, the victor should be decided by who is able to put the other man on the back foot.
UFC 152, September 22, Toronto, Canada
Rory MacDonald vs. BJ Penn
6.5: Rory MacDonald will have over a six-inch reach advantage on BJ Penn.
4: MacDonald only started his pro MMA career four years after Penn despite being 10 years his junior come fight night.
78%: BJ Penn has fended off a staggering 78% of UFC takedown attempts.
68%: MacDonald’s and Penn’s careers combine for a 68% finish percentage.
5:00:53: If BJ Penn’s bout with MacDonald runs past 2:02 in the third round, he will have clocked the longest total UFC fight time, breaking the record of 5:00:53 currently held by Tito Ortiz.
The bigger picture
That former UFC welterweight and lightweight champion BJ Penn (16-8-2) was tempted out of retirement inside a year should surprise no one. After all, few fighters stick to such pledges for long and Penn was soon backtracking on his announcement. But agreeing to fight Canada’s rising welterweight superstar Rory MacDonald (13-1) should have raised more than a few eyebrows. The Great White North’s next great hope, MacDonald is just 23, a training partner of Georges St-Pierre and, ever since his UFC debut back in January 2010, has looked like a star in the making.
Even in his loss to current interim champion Carlos Condit, MacDonald was winning until fading late, being TKO’d seven seconds from victory. He’s also gone on to look superb in beating Nate Diaz, Mike Pyle, and Che Mills. Since MacDonald’s UFC debut, BJ has gone 1-3-1, losing twice to Frankie Edgar before returning to 170lb – a division he’s simply far too small for – to KO old foe Matt Hughes in 21 seconds, battle to a draw with Jon Fitch and take a three-round beating off Nick Diaz. True, he’s been facing elite fighters, but the 33-year-old appears on the slide and this fight should see MacDonald pick up his first win over a truly big-name opponent.
Technical breakdown
Comparisons between GSP and MacDonald abound – their common nationality making it inevitable – stylistically the comparison is warranted. Strong striking coupled with unstoppably powerful and well-timed wrestling, and a top game that marries a flair for jiu-jitsu with devastating ground ‘n’ pound, it’s no wonder MacDonald is being considered as an heir to the 170lb throne. MacDonald times his leg tackles superbly in the flow of striking exchanges, which should neatly bypass Penn’s legendary balance and flexibility that has foiled the takedowns of the best the welterweight division had to offer time and again.
Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar had success taking Penn down by tackling him within the exchanges. Flitting between 170lb and 155lb, Penn once again finds himself undersized facing a fully-fledged welterweight, with youth on his side. That, coupled with his famously lackluster conditioning could be decisive the longer the fight wears on. The much younger MacDonald maintains his intensity well and consistently sets the tempo of his fights.
Penn’s striking must never be discounted – ferocious when he brings intensity, cruel and punishing when he sits back and picks. He has a knack of making his opponents look horrendously marked up with his whipping punches (GSP, Sherk), or leaves them blood-soaked from cuts reminiscent of a horror movie (Stevenson, Sanchez). Against the six-foot MacDonald he loses out on reach, though, which will force him to commit to touch the Canadian, and may allow MacDonald to set up those takedowns.
UFC on Fuel TV, September 29, Nottingham, UK
Stefan Struve vs. Stipe Miocic
20th: As an NCAA Division I wrestler for Cleveland State in 2003, Stipe Miocic was ranked 20th in the nation at 197lb.
1: Miocic’s only submission win came not via grappling, but due to leg kicks in his final bout before joining the UFC.
3rd: Stefan Struve ranks third amongst UFC fighters for most submissions attempted per 15 minutes of fight time with 4.50. Behind only TJ Waldburger (5.77) and Joe Lauzon (4.78).
0%: According to FightMetric, Struve has never successfully defended a takedown in the UFC Octagon.
3rd: Besides wrestling in college, Stipe Miocic played third base with Cleveland State Vikings baseball.
The bigger picture
At six-foot-eleven, Dutch ‘Skyscraper’ Struve (24-5) is one of the more recognizable, and consistently entertaining fighters in the UFC. Entering his 30th professional fight, he’s still just 24, but has compiled an 8-3 record inside the Octagon and is riding a three-fight winning streak. An exceptionally good heavyweight grappler, with 16 submission wins, Struve has plenty of experience, talent and still-to-be-fulfilled potential.
However, blitzed in 54 seconds by Junior Dos Santos, in 39 by Roy Nelson and KO’d inside a round by Travis Browne, his chin has failed him a few times. And two of his last three victims – Pat Barry and Lavar Johnson – have submission games right out of the primitive mid-1990s.
Former Golden Gloves amateur boxer and college Division I wrestler and baseball player, 30-year-old Croatian-American Miocic, meanwhile, has gone unbeaten in nine fights since making his MMA debut in January 2010. He has gone 3-0 inside the Octagon, decisioning the iron-chinned Joey Beltran, hammering Phil De Fries early, and TKO’ing Shane Del Rosario just minutes after Struve finished Johnson at UFC 146. Still learning on the job, Miocic is nowhere near as good a striker as Struve and needs to be very careful when taking the Dutchman down not to be trapped in a submission.
Technical breakdown
Miocic arrived in MMA perfectly cut into the mold of the boxer-wrestler archetype. With Division I wrestling credentials and golden gloves honors, the Croatian-American delivers just what you would expect. His straightforward approach to striking – straight one-twos, tight and minimal head movement, sparing and careful use of kick and knee technique – has brought him a series of knockout finishes in his undefeated nine-fight career. Before the UFC, Miocic simply physically and technically dominated overmatched opponents on the NAAFS circuit, and after moving to a higher level of competition has benefitted from the ‘wrestler’s prerogative,’ the ability to decide at will where the fight takes place.
His well-chosen single-leg tackles served him well against the always-durable Beltran, a testament to his ability to combine his wrestling and boxing offensively and defensively. Miocic’s boxing is not without its flaws, though, and he has a habit of crossing his feet as he moves laterally.
Struve, unsurprisingly for a Dutchman, utilizes his long legs well, and if Miocic wanders across his legs he may offer an easy target for Struve’s low kick. Struve uses his legs equally well on the mat, recycling his guard with ease and setting up his triangle and armbar combinations. Struve has won 16 fights via sub, mostly from his guard.
And, although his defensive wrestling is unlikely to be a match for his opponent’s strong leg tackles, Miocic must be wary of those legs should he elect to take the fight to the mat.
...
