Issue 089

June 2012

FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts,

First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.

ANDERSON SILVA (31-4-0) VS. CHAEL SONNEN (27-11-1)

UFC 147, June 23rd Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

2086

At 2,086 days owning the UFC middleweight belt by fight night, Silva has the longest title reign of any UFC champion in history. 

5+1

During their 2010 meeting, Sonnen passed into Silva’s half guard five times and gained side control once.

43%*

Chael Sonnen successfully completed 43% of his attempted takedowns (19% below his UFC average) when he first challenged for Anderson Silva’s title at UFC 117.

256*

In their first fight, Chael Sonnen landed 256 more total strikes than Anderson Silva, and 60 greater significant strikes. 

THE BIGGER PICTURE

When the most quotable man in sports spent 22 minutes beating up peerless UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva (31-4) only to find himself trapped in a fifth-round triangle choke that ended one of the most dramatic title fights in history, a rematch seemed certain. But (27-11-1) Chael Sonnen’s subsequent testosterone replacement therapy fiasco delayed things greatly. 

Now, almost two years on, and after dominating and outclassing Brian Stann, and squeaking past Michael Bisping thanks to a debated judges verdict, Sonnen gets a second crack at ‘The Spider.’ Having put on the performance of a lifetime in their first fight (aided by Silva’s injured ribs?) can Sonnen repeat the trick but finish the job this time? Or will Silva be better prepared for his relentless pressure and constant striking activity? 

Like the challenger, Silva has fought twice since, annihilating Vitor Belfort and completely outclassing Yushin Okami. The UFC record holder for longest title reign and most title defenses (nine), Silva shows no signs of age-related decline, even at 37. Two years younger, Sonnen will likely be the underdog but will probably relish both that and a rabidly hostile Brazilian crowd in what should be another genuinely epic fight. 

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

In their initial clash at UFC 117 in August 2010, Chael Sonnen shocked Anderson Silva’s fans, not only by taking him down with relative ease, but also landing some clean punches – a feat far better strikers have singularly failed to accomplish.

Anderson Silva is the most accurate striker in the UFC, having landed 68.5% of his significant strikes attempted in the Octagon

The level of Sonnen’s success against Anderson – who, injury issues aside, still under-performed – was unprecedented since The Spider’s arrival in the UFC and was achieved as Sonnen was able to ignore the huge amounts of baffling information Silva puts out. Anderson typically overwhelms his opponent even before any contact is made. 

His feints, at times large, sometimes incredibly subtle, but ever present, left the likes of Forrest Griffin like a rabbit in the headlights, yet amounted to little when pitted against the simplicity of Sonnen’s tactics. 

Sonnen does one thing only and does it well. He charges his man down, drives him onto his back and hammers away with ground ‘n’ pound. Of course, the approach that brings him his success is equally the cause of his undoing, with eight of his 11 losses coming by way of submission.

VITOR BELFORT (21-9-0) VS. WANDERLEI SILVA (34-11-1 (1 NC))

UFC 147, June 23rd Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

44

Number of seconds it took Vitor Belfort to knock Wanderlei Silva out in their first fight in 1998 at UFC: Ultimate Brazil in Sao Paulo.

8*

Despite being a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Belfort has only attempted eight takedowns in his UFC career, completing six of them.

40

Silva and Belfort have an astonishing 40 strike stoppages between them. Belfort has 14 (T)KOs while Silva has 24 (T)KOs and two submissions due to blows.

14lb

Although Belfort and Silva’s UFC 147 meeting is a rematch of their 1998 bout, this will be their first time fighting each other at 185lb. At UFC 17.5 they weighed in 14lb heavier at 199lb.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

‘The Axe Murderer’ Wanderlei Silva (34-11-1 (1 NC)) and Vitor Belfort (21-9) may have upped their profiles at home by serving as coaches on the first-ever Brazilian season of The Ultimate Fighter but their rivalry goes back many years. Their first fight, at October 1998’s UFC: Ultimate Brazil, was Silva’s promotional debut and Belfort’s first light heavyweight outing. Highly anticipated at the time and, as Belfort obliterated him with a dizzying 44-second onslaught, endlessly replayed since, it’s become one of the cornerstones of the Belfort legend. 

Belfort is one of those fighters who seems to get endless opportunities and big fights. He wasn’t at his best in his perhaps undeserved UFC 126 title challenge against Anderson Silva but since then has destroyed the undersized Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 133 last year and the oversized Anthony Johnson before his Brazilian countrymen in Rio at UFC 142 in January. 

Silva, at almost 36, is one of the sport’s most beloved sentimental heroes. His reflexes are now troubled by so many years of hard fighting and training, and his chin has been beaten on a few occasions, but he remains a compelling, gutsy, fan-friendly figure who beat Cung Le last time out at UFC 139. However, this one could prove to be a very, very dangerous fight for The Axe Murderer.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

From the start of his career ‘The Phenom’ always possessed outstanding knockout ability, but he has refined his boxing steadily with crisper, tidier defense and footwork and still the ever-present threat of the thunderous left cross.

Win or lose, only 11% of Silva’s bouts in his 16-year career have gone to a decision

As Belfort continues to mature his style, so too does Wanderlei gradually decline with each outing, his chin now pretty much condemned by many after slugger Chris Leben switched off his lights at UFC 132. His victory against Cung Le at UFC 139 may have been an inspiration, but hardly heralded a return to the ferocious Wanderlei of old. Rather it showed an ageing master struggling to summon or maintain the furious explosions that made him a superstar.

Wanderlei has always had a very square Muay Thai stance, which served him well to twist in those volleys of left and right hooks and sprawl. Inevitably, though, the squarer stance is vulnerable to the straight shots. Belfort has a much narrower profile with his pronounced boxing stance. Expect southpaw Belfort to cue up the left cross with his jab. Whatever refinements Belfort may have made, his basic formula for success remains the same. He either drops his man with punches, or rocks him, sprawls on the shot and spins to take the back, finishing with a barrage of punches.

DUANE LUDWIG (21-12-0) VS. DAN HARDY (23-10-0 (1 NC))

UFC 146, May 26th Las Vegas

33

Ludwig is 33 years old while Hardy is 29. An examination of 227 UFC bouts found fighters older than 32 lost in 62% of the fights analyzed.

10

Dan Hardy started training for MMA 10 years ago, back in 2002. By that time Ludwig was already 8-2 in pro MMA.

1

With 11, Hardy actually has one more (T)KO on his record than former ISKA champion Ludwig. Although, at three, Ludwig has one more submission due to strikes.

1st

Duane Ludwig is in the UFC record books as having the fastest ever knockout in the Octagon – 6.06 seconds over Jonathan Goulet back in 2006.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

The phrase ‘this is the biggest fight of my career’ has become a cliché in MMA, but when Dan Hardy (23-10-1) steps into the cage against Duane Ludwig (21-12) at UFC 146, it truly will be a ‘loser leaves town’ bout. Both men are hanging on by their fingertips to stay in the UFC, with Hardy not winning a fight since 2009 against Mike Swick, whilst Ludwig is 2-3 in his most recent run in the Octagon, being choked unconscious by Josh Neer in his last bout earlier this year.

The big question is, what is in store for the loser? Ludwig has been fighting for an incredibly long time in kickboxing and MMA (since 2000 in both under pro rules), and has fought a who’s who, including Ramon Dekkers, BJ Penn, Jens Pulver, Takanori Gomi amongst others. With injuries piling up and a gym to run, it maybe time for him to call it a day should he not pick up the ‘W’. Hardy on the other hand is four years younger, but has fallen from grace since the five-round decision defeat in an attempt to challenge for Georges St Pierre’s UFC welterweight title in 2010. If he loses and sees his UFC walking papers, you can expect a host of promotions to be all over him, his name still huge, win, lose or draw. Both men have their heads firmly on the chopping blocks, so expect fireworks.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

What is an even bout on the surface between clinical kickboxer Duane Ludwig and venomous striker Dan Hardy appears to be skewed in Ludwig’s favor on the stats sheet. While Hardy will enjoy a not insignificant four-inch reach advantage on his American opponent, according to UFC statistics provider FightMetric, ‘Bang’ trumps the Brit in strike accuracy (connecting 45% of the time as opposed to ‘The Outlaw’s 32%), and has absorbed marginally fewer strikes per minute, taking 2.85 on average opposite Hardy’s 3.31.

On average, Duane Ludwig lands 5.59* significant strikes per minute. Good enough for fourth out of all UFC fighters

However, Hardy remains the only one of the two to have enjoyed a four-fight win streak in the UFC and to have challenged for a UFC title. And while Ludwig’s kickboxing might be revered by all his welterweight peers, his chin has succumbed to the ground ‘n’ pound of strong wrestler Tyson Griffin in 2006 and the power punches of former Hardy stablemate Paul Daley in 2007. He was also dropped in 2008 by a Takanori Gomi left hand.

In Hardy’s last outing against Chris Lytle, where he lost via guillotine choke in round three, he appeared to have trouble with an advancing Lytle, whose forward steps into range constantly forced the former number-one contender to reset and begin his set-ups afresh. If Ludwig can cause similar technical issues for Hardy it could dictate this bout’s outcome should the Brit not land with power onto Ludwig’s chin before the final bell.

Bigger Picture by Aundre Jacobs, Technical Breakdown by Richard Cartey.

*Figures courtesy of FightMetric

† Figure courtesy of CompuStrike

(All details correct at time of going to press)