Issue 085
February 2012
FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts
Frankie Edgar vs Ben Henderson // Joe Warren vs PAT Curran // Joe Lauzon vs Anthony Pettis
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.
FRANIE EDGAR (14-1-1) VS BEN HENDERSON (15-2-0)
UFC 144
February 26th, Saitama, Japan
The bigger picture
Headlining the first UFC show in Japan in more than a decade, 30-year-old UFC lightweight champion Frankie ‘The Answer’ Edgar (14-1-1) should be relishing a new opponent after facing either BJ Penn or Gray Maynard in five of his last eight fights. But few fighters, even the proven best lightweight in the world, should be in too much of a rush to face Ben Henderson (15-2). Earning this title shot with a unanimous decision victory in a ferocious 15-minute classic with Clay Guida, and before that an inspired three-round dismantling of Jim Miller, Henderson seems to have limitless stamina and impeccable submission defense. Fast, aggressive, an effective wrestler and exceptionally dangerous with chokes (ask Anthony Njokuani, Jamie Varner and Donald Cerrone about his guillotine) Henderson is a very real title threat. As WEC lightweight champion in 2009 and 2010, Henderson beat Cerrone in a truly epic five-rounder, unified two portions of the title with a submission win over Varner and choked out Cerrone less than two minutes into their much-anticipated rematch. And finally, even in dropping the title to Anthony Pettis, Henderson looked tremendous in a great, and very close, five-round fight.
It must be frustrating to be Frankie Edgar. No other UFC champion, with the possible exception of BJ Penn when he held the welterweight title and Randy Couture in his third heavyweight title reign, can have been so often asked when he’s dropping down a division as Edgar. It is, of course, a silly question. Edgar outclassed BJ Penn, then did it again to drive the point home to those who simply couldn’t accept he was a better fighter. Edgar took 9 of 10 rounds against Penn, and in his two title fights with Maynard (a draw and a win) Edgar twice recovered from first-round maulings and being on the very edge of defeat to come back, using his speed, technique and stamina to outclass a bigger opponent. And second time around, Edgar finished a wilted Maynard in the fourth. Yes, Edgar is smaller than most top lightweights, but he’s also faster, is a great wrestler and a hugely improved boxer. Perhaps too quiet and not exactly a fountain of charisma, he’ll struggle to be accepted as a big, money-drawing superstar but Edgar has proved he’s an elite fighter. It’s long past the point where people should be looking at Edgar as the favorite in his title defenses. Henderson will be tough – maybe exceptionally so – but Edgar is just a little better.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Fairly small for the division, Edgar has never appeared to suffer a disadvantage in strength, but rather has benefitted from excellent hand and foot speed and a seemingly inexhaustible gas tank. Henderson has the taller stature, but whether he will be able to exploit the reach advantage against the fast and relentlessly active target that Edgar presents is dubious.
Edgar’s level will automatically be underneath Henderson, even with the typical crouch that Henderson adopts, and should present an easy target for Edgar’s outstanding double-leg. Edgar finishes the double with a well-selected variety of lifts, trips and tilts, turning the corner hard, shooting to the far side or switching his drive to take the man over his head. Given the ease with which Edgar has taken down the best wrestlers in the division, Henderson must surely be anticipating fighting from his guard.
Half of Henderson’s 15 career wins have come via submission, all thanks to some variety of choke. Edgar too has submitted three opponents, all with chokes, but his ground game is less focused on achieving a submission, but rather grounding ‘n’ pounding his way to victory. Although he has been to the judges’ cards in most of his fights, with the exception of the loss and draw versus Maynard, the decisions have been clear, unanimous wins thanks to his exceptional work rate and insightful riding of the top position whilst he delivers barrages of punches.
Southpaw Henderson carries his hands high and leads with his jab, throwing it out with his elbows out wide. Edgar’s striking is much more compact, throwing tight punches and rarely lifting a foot off the mat, preferring to box, unleashing short, tight combinations then moving, constantly varying angle and distance. Edgar’s ability to mix up his striking and wrestling is the key to his success with both, as he constantly keeps his opponents guessing and sells his fakes with great success.
Frankie Edgar has the longest average fight time of all UFC fighters, clocking in at 16 minutes and 28 seconds.
By fight night, Edgar will have been UFC lightweight champion for 688 days. He would need to hold the title for 125 more to beat BJ Penn’s record as the longest reigning 155lb king.
Though Ben Henderson officially lost his WEC lightweight title to Anthony Pettis in 2010 he is the ‘linear’ champion and true number-one contender. Upon moving to the UFC, Pettis lost to Clay Guida, who lost to Henderson.
Ben Henderson might be three inches taller than Frankie Edgar but nevertheless he will suffer a two-inch reach disadvantage.
With 16 decisions out of 33 fights between them, Ben Henderson and Frankie Edgar have been to the judges 48% of the time, indicating this one might end before the fifth.
JOE WARREN (7-2-0) VS PAT CURRAN (16-4-0)
Bellator, February TBC, Venue TBC
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Entering just his fourth year as a professional fighter, motor-mouthed 35-year-old Bellator featherweight champion Joe Warren (7-2) is one of the best wrestlers in the sport and boasts a tremendous work ethic. A 2006 Greco-Roman world champion, Warren beat Norifumi ‘Kid’ Yamamoto (when many pegged Yamamoto as amongst the very best at 145lb) in just his second MMA fight, the first of five judges’ verdicts to go his way so far. Still learning and small for the weight class, Warren is coming off a shock KO defeat to Alexis Vila and a controversial decision win over Marcus Galvao.
Challenger Pat Curran (16-4) is one of the promotion’s greatest discoveries and the only man to win Bellator tournaments at two different weights, lightweight and featherweight. Bigger, younger by over a decade, more versatile and with a more impressive list of wins, having beaten Roger Huerta, Toby Imada, Ronnie Mann and Marlon Sandro, Curran is one of the very best young fighters out there without a UFC contract. Last year he went five rounds with the hugely talented Eddie Alvarez for the lightweight championship and he should do better here, finishing Warren inside the distance to lift the title.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
A wrestler of an extremely high caliber, it is obvious where Joe Warren’s talents lie. His striking is limited, and given the harsh knockout he suffered against Alexis Vila in his last fight, he may be more tentative on his feet. Warren typically bulls in looking to tie up high, and then execute his takedown, or shoot under the punches and tackle the legs. Although his greatest achievements as a wrestler were in Greco-Roman, he is no stranger to freestyle and has no trouble tackling or defending the legs. His inexperience with the submission game was exposed by Bibiano Fernandes back in 2009, when he fell fowl of the straight armlock, but has since managed to resist submission attempts, narrowly evading razor close attempts from Eric Marriot in 2010. From top position Warren is dangerous and relentless, but once on his back he struggles, and was horribly dominated by Patricio ‘Pitbull’ Freire in the first round of their Bellator 23 clash – saved by the bell, as he was against Marriot.
Curran has only been stopped once in his career, back in 2009. A genuine all-rounder, he strikes, wrestles and grapples on the mat with equal competence. He’s perhaps not the greatest in any given area but tends to find a way to employ his skills. He may well struggle with the wrestling skills of Warren, but has an edge in submission and striking, and benefits from the grace under fire that comes with 20 fights’ experience. Curran boxes with hunched shoulders, sticking to the basics, changing angles and range. He favors his right leg, generally going to the leg and body, but also delivered an stunning head-kick KO to Marlon Sandro in 2010.
On fight night, the 35-year-old Warren will be 10 years the 25-year-old Pat Curran’s senior. However, Curran owns 11 more fights’ worth of in-ring experience.
Pat Curran will have a four-inch height advantage over the one-time bantamweight Joe Warren.
Curran is the first person to win two Bellator tournaments in two different weight classes. In 2010 he won the lightweight bracket. In 2011, he took the 145lb tournament for the number-one contender spot at featherweight.
Joe Warren’s defense of his Bellator featherweight title against Pat Curran will be his first, and it will be only the third 145lb title fight in Bellator history.
In Greco-Roman wrestling Warren has three gold medals between the World Cup, Pan American and World Championships.
JOE LAUZON (21-6-0) VS ANTHONY PETTIS (14-2-0)
UFC 144, February 26th, Saitama, Japan
THE BIGGER PICTURE
The last WEC lightweight champion before the division’s UFC absorption, Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis (14-2) was promised a fast-tracked shot at the UFC title but circumstances, and his acceptance of a fight with Clay Guida, got in the way. Unable to cope with Guida’s pace and wrestling, Pettis dropped a decision but came back to outpoint underappreciated veteran Jeremy Stephens in a tough, close fight. Riding high in late 2010 with his WEC title win and ‘that’ kick to Ben Henderson’s face, which has seemingly been on US TV screens more times than the Kardashians, Pettis is an exciting young (25 on fight night) fighter with name value. But he needs a spectacular win or two in such a tough division to break out of the pack.
Trying to stop him will be 27-year-old six-year UFC veteran Joe Lauzon (21-6). Owner of five ‘Submission of the Night’ bonuses in his eight UFC wins (he’s lost three times, picking up some consolation in the ‘Fight of the Night’ award each time) Lauzon seems perpetually on the verge of title contention, if he can just pick up one more big, impressive win. Destroying Melvin Guillard last time out, Lauzon is a superb grappler but he lags far behind Pettis’ striking. That may be the decider here. Either way, this should provide some fantastic action.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Highly experienced at 27 years of age, Lauzon debuted in 2004. Pettis, younger still, made his pro debut in early 2007, and has amassed a 14-2 record, half the experience of ‘J-Lau.’
Submission specialist Lauzon has picked up 17 of his 21 career victories with a variety of finishes. With a grappling style that is both fast and aggressive, yet extremely tight, Lauzon slips through his opponent’s guard and sticks himself fast to the pin or the back ride. Although he doesn’t appear physically imposing, he has no trouble finishing his well timed double-legs, ducking under the punches and driving in deep, or capturing the hips from a body lock, and squeezing his man down to the mat with a twist or trip. Unfortunately his striking lacks the finesse of his grappling, and although he has shown knockout power, his highlight moments tend to happen on the mat, as he still looks somewhat clumsy on his feet.
A stylish and creative kicker, Pettis goes high and low, fakes with one leg and kicks with the other. He garnered fame for the spectacular kick that capped off his campaign against Ben Henderson, but has some deeper substance to his striking, like the more conventional low kicks that punished Alex Karalexis’ legs. Pettis stands a little wide and square, and carries his hands quite low. Far from being a one-trick pony, though, he has a lightning-fast guillotine and triangle to counter his opponent’s shot, having finished Mike Campbell, Alex Karalexis and Shane Roller successively, all by triangle.
Joe Lauzon ranks second among his UFC peers for most submission attempts per fight. On average, Lauzon seeks 4.88 submissions every 15 minutes of action.
Lauzon has taken an astonishing 17 of his 21 by submission, once due to strikes. Of those 17, rear naked chokes and armbars account for 10.
While with the UFC and WEC, Anthony Pettis has only gone for 13 takedowns but completed 10 of them for a 77% success rate.
Fighting in Japan will mark the first time either Lauzon or Pettis have ever fought outside of North America.
Anthony Pettis has a deep bag of tricks, such as his flying kick attack against Ben Henderson at WEC 53 which has been viewed well over three million times on YouTube.
