Issue 083
December 2011
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.
UFC 141, December 30th
Las Vegas, Nevada
Alistair Overeem vs. Brock Lesnar
92%
In his most recent fight against jiu-jitsu ace Fabricio Werdum, Overeem defended 92% of the Brazilian’s takedown attempts
11
Alistair Overeem is on an 11-fight win streak that stretches all the way back to September 2007
3
Overeem is younger than Lesnar by three years. Statistical analysis of UFC fights suggests that fighters younger than their opponent by three or more years are more likely to win – a 58% success rate
58%
Of Brock Lesnar’s 19 attempted takedowns in his MMA career, he’s successfully completed 11 of them, or 58%
8
If both competitors stay true to their last-recorded weigh-ins, at 264lb Brock Lesnar will outweigh Overeem by eight pounds on paper
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Returning from a second battle with diverticulitis, former UFC heavyweight champion and one of the highest paid fighters in the sport, Brock Lesnar (5-2) will finish off 2011 headlining yet another massive, lucrative pay-per-view in.this UFC heavyweight title eliminator. Promoted as two comic book monsters come to life and colliding in the cage, this fight will be huge. It will be 14 months since Lesnar lost the title to the frighteningly good Cain Velasquez and his opponent will be UFC first-timer and one of the sport’s most debated big men, Alistair Overeem (35-11 (1 NC)).
Despite public assurances he was back to full strength, the Lesnar who came from behind to submit an exhausted Shane Carwin and then was battered to first-round defeat by Cain, was nowhere near full strength. And, after yet more time fighting a serious, debilitating disease, nobody really knows how healthy he’ll be for this fight.
The darling of many fans who reflexively (and oddly) back any and every quality fighter outside the UFC as the real, ‘real deal,’ former light heavyweight Alistair Overeem hasn’t lost a fight in four years. Now a monstrous heavyweight and looking like the kind of prototypical WWE star Lesnar used to actually be, he’s also only fought one highly-ranked fighter since 2007. And in that fight, Fabricio Werdum, whose own reputation was boosted due to him catching Fedor Emelianenko’s precipitous downslide first, showed that Overeem isn’t always the unstoppable wrecking machine his boosters would have everyone believe. Overeem took a decision victory but he looked flat against a reluctant opponent.
Strategically, this should be a very simple fight. Lesnar, who hasn’t reacted well to being hit in the face, desperately needs to take Overeem down and maul him on the mat. Overeem, the last (and perhaps last ever) K-1 world grand prix champion might only have to keep the fight standing a few minutes and unload knees and punches to win on his feet. But stopping Lesnar’s takedown will be far from easy and, if he does go down, Overeem has sometimes not shown the ability to battle back from adversity. In a five-round fight the man with stamina issues dating back many years has just as many question marks hanging over his head as Lesnar does.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Bulked up to heavyweight, Alistair Overeem lacks the movement he had in the lower divisions, but still far outstrips Brock Lesnar when it comes to lateral motion. Ungainly and muscle-bound, Lesnar has limited footwork. Where he really can move, however, is driving straight forward. His double-leg drive is like the proverbial freight train.
Overeem has not been faced-off against any great shooters during his heavyweight stint, and although he displayed good sprawling skills against Werdum, the Brazilian is a distinctly different proposition, and hardly a wrestler of Lesnar’s size or caliber.
As much as Overeem cannot match Lesnar’s wrestling, Lesnar’s striking is a world apart from Overeem’s with the Dutchman’s K-1 credentials and array of knockout finishes. Lesnar essentially relies on his jackhammer right hand, having no jab or kicking ability to speak of. Overeem too, more so since his move up the weights, often has his greatest success with a clubbing right hand, but also has the complete package of kicks and knees one would expect from a K-1 champion. Although he may be cautious early on to raise a foot from the floor, if Lesnar tires and goes on the back foot, he may well be greeted by a shin or knee.
This fight, however, is certainly not an old-school striker-versus-grappler match. Of 35 wins in Overeem’s MMA career, 19 have been via submission (although perhaps Paul Buentello’s and Mike Bencic’s submissions to knees to the body, and Arona’s submission to punches, is better accredited to his striking ability) as opposed to the comparatively low, but still blisteringly high 40% knockout ratio, with 14 (T)KOs to his credit. Add in to that picture Overeem’s wealth of K-1 fights, Lesnar is a raw novice with only seven fights under his belt, and very little actual ring time having made it as far as the third only once. Deep waters have to favor the experienced veteran Overeem, and Lesnar may well elect to blitz Overeem in the opening stanza, hoping to overwhelm him early on.
UFC 140, December 10th,
Toronto, Ontario
Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida
58
From his debut at UFC 87 to his acquisition of the UFC light heavyweight belt at UFC 128, it took only 58 UFC events for Jon Jones to become the 205lb king
65%
Jones has completed 65% of his UFC takedown attempts successfully. That ranks him ninth amongst his UFC colleagues.
4th
Lyoto Machida isn’t known for his power punching but he is tied for fourth out of all UFC fighters in most knockdowns scored, with 10 to his name
85%
Machida is the fourth most effective UFC fighter, past or present, at stopping takedowns, with a success rate of 85%. Andrei Arlovski is first with 89.5%
2006
In 2006 Jon Jones won the NJCAA (National Junior College Athletic Association) collegiate wrestling championship at 197lb
THE BIGGER PICTURE
With every successive dismantling of elite level opponents, UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones (14-1) looks more and more like the latest in a long line of ‘unbeatable’ fighters. Yet despite plenty of positive press, ‘Bones’ doesn’t yet connect well with the average fan (his pay-per-view numbers are below what you’d expect for such an explosive champion) but if he carries on along his recent path of total obliteration, the really big numbers will surely start rolling in.
The youngest UFC champion ever, this will be Jones’ fourth fight of a year highlighted by smashing his way to title glory against Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua and, in his first defense, making Quinton Jackson look sluggish and ordinary over nearly four rounds. One of the only fighters able to even dream about competing with Jones for speed, former champion Lyoto Machida (18-2) is hardly the darling of casual fans (or plenty of hardcore followers) either. Elusive and often reluctant to engage, he can be a nightmare to watch despite being a clinical finisher. Losing the 205lb belt to Rua after being gifted a decision win first time around, Machida then dropped a decision to Jackson before front-kicking Randy Couture into retirement. As fast and unpredictable as Machida is, Jones may well be faster and more creative, as well as bigger, stronger, younger and simply better.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
The similarities abound with Lyoto Machida and Jon Jones – kicking and mixing takedowns with striking combinations – but critical differences in their approaches are equally clear. Popularly referred to as ‘elusive,’ Machida’s standard tactic is essentially to hit and run away. Jones is more consistent with his pressure, coming forward and kicking and kneeing without fear of the takedown.
In spite of Jones’ debuting five years after Machida, Jones has been far more active, accruing 15 pro fights, closing the experience gap. Moreover, Jones has torn through the same top-flight opposition that Machida has struggled with, having been knocked out by ‘Shogun’, and decisioned by ‘Rampage’, who Jones KO’d and submitted respectively.
Machida’s stance is the long and low position of the karateka, where Jones is more upright in the Muay Thai style. Jones’ elevation seems to have given him no problem defending takedowns, however, his wrestling instincts being so keenly honed.
Only two of Jones’ opponents have lasted the distance with him, whilst Machida has been to the judges 10 times, and been into the fifth round with Shogun – territory uncharted by Jones. Machida himself has hinted that his plan is to take him to deep waters, specifically stating that stamina and gameplan could have a marked affect the outcome. Jones’ high-octane style is difficult to maintain over five rounds, and if Machida can ride the storm, diffusing Jones’ antics with his back-foot tactics, his chance for victory may emerge late in the bout.
UFC 140, December 10th,
Toronto, Ontario
Mark Hominick vs. Chan-Sung Jung
2
Hominick, well known for his advanced striking, held two kickboxing titles. He was the IKF North American super welterweight champion and ISKA Canadian super welterweight champion.
5%
In UFC and WEC competition, Chan-Sung Jung has avoided 66% of strikes and Hominick 71%, for a 5% differential
2
‘The Korean Zombie’ has won two tournaments in his MMA career. Two stoppages made him a tourney victor in Pancrase, and three wins in one night nabbed him the Korea FC featherweight tournament.
80%
Exactly 80% of Mark Hominick’s five submission losses were the result of a choke. Of Jung’s seven submission victories 57% have been due to a choke
3.5
Hominick will have a three-point-five-inch reach disadvantage against Chan-Sung Jung
THE BIGGER PICTURE
The most famous fighter whose real name hardly anyone knows, ‘The Korean Zombie’ Chan-Sung Jung (14-3) was already well known to hardcore fans before his stunning preliminary fight on the not-quite-WEC pay-per-view event from April 2010. Marketed as a UFC in all but name, main evented by Urijah Faber and José Aldo, the show is just as memorable for the 15 minutes of frenetic violence displayed by Jung and split decision winner Leonard Garcia. Unarguable proof that sometimes having a great fight is far more important than winning or losing, Jung became a cult sensation thanks to his terrifying ability to absorb punishment and keep coming forward like, well, a Korean zombie.
His cartoonish, reckless style didn’t help him a few months later as he was KO’ed for the first time in his career by George Roop, but he rebounded to finish Garcia in a rematch with the first successful twister submission in UFC history. Facing Mark Hominick (20-9), who beat both Garcia and Roop before pushing Aldo for five, hard, dramatic rounds in a stirring UFC featherweight title fight at April’s Toronto mega-show, Jung’s chin and style will be severely tested. A highly skilled, very fast kickboxer, Hominick has a pleasing habit of getting involved in great fights. This could be something truly spectacular.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Mark Hominick has successfully retained the elegance of his K-1 kickboxing style (occasionally lost in the transition to MMA) and always brings superb footwork and crisp combinations. He stands confidently in the pocket, using strict, minimal head movement and tight blocks and parries to defend himself. Stylistically, The Korean Zombie is about as different from Hominick as they come. His method is wild, leading with huge, wide hooks and jump kneeing liberally. Chan-Sung Jung is not so much a switch hitter, as a man with no defined stance: standing square or walking through his stance. His defense is lacking, and generally relies on his willingness to take a punch and answer back.
Jung has a tidier and more measured grappling style, taking the back with great fluency, often from standing, and finishes well with chokes and, of course, the famous twister. Hominick rarely elects to go for the takedown, since he is normally in command of the stand-up, but as witnessed in the final round against Aldo, he is capable of taking the fight to the mat and dominating there. Although Hominick’s beautiful kickboxing style will always see him tagged as a striker, his submission skill cannot be questioned, with an even spread of eight (T)KOs matching eight submission stoppage wins. When confronted with a takedown attempt, Hominick prefers to skip back, short-sprawling the lead leg and posting his hands out on the shooter’s shoulders. Chan-Sung Jung more often drops his hands, trying to grab an underhook. If Hominick fakes a shot and then strikes high, the Korean may get caught flush.
...
