Issue 080
October 2011
FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts
Jon Jones vs Quinton Jackson // José Aldo vs Kenny Florian // Matt Hughes vs Diego Sanchez
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.
JON JONES (13-1-0) VS QUINTON JACKSON (32-8-0)
UFC 135
September 24th, Denver, Colorado
The bigger picture
Thanks to injuries, his on-off acting career and squabbles with the UFC, ‘Rampage’ Jackson (32-8) has fought just three times since he beat Keith Jardine back in March 2009. All three fights have gone the distance and all have been severely lacking in the kind of excitement his fights used to almost guarantee. His UFC 114 grudge match with Rashad Evans was a spectacular success financially, but, thanks to Evans’ hit-and-move-and-move-some-more tactics and Jackson’s sluggishly uninspired attempts to catch him, the fight was a bitter disappointment. Dropping the decision there, Jackson got the judges’ nod (somewhat controversially) at UFC 123 against Lyoto Machida. Again, he looked slow and if Machida had simply picked up the pace and attacked a little more, the Brazilian would likely have taken the decision. As it was, Jackson’s immediate reaction was that he’d lost and it was again a very unsatisfying fight. Which brings us to his most recent outing – an unarguable and very decisive win over a woefully overmatched Matt Hamill. While the matchmaking was at fault there, Jackson was just too slow and predictable to hunt down and finish his opponent. That doesn’t bode well for his attempt to regain the UFC light heavyweight title in this fight.
Prodigiously talented, just 24, holding one of the sport’s most high-profile titles, sporting a near-perfect 13-1 professional record and boasting a well-received appearance on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, ‘Bones’ Jones looks like the sport’s next true superstar. But some would say he hasn’t yet earned his – and others’ – comparisons to Muhammad Ali, and others were riled by his back-and-forth on whether to get surgery for a long-term hand injury that nixed his title defense against friend-turned-enemy Rashad. His bickering with Evans is brewing nicely though is yet to extend far beyond superficialities. But even if Jones believes the hype a little too much, there’s a very good reason it’s out there in the first place – he’s an exceptional fighter whose eight UFC fights so far have left a pile of battered victims in his wake.
Few fighters could have destroyed Hamill, Brandon Vera, Vladimir Matyushenko and ‘Shogun’ Rua the way Jones did. And what really sets him apart from Jackson is his speed. He’s also inventively unorthodox and a very, very good wrestler. We haven’t seen Jackson finished inside the distance in over six years, when Rua battered him to defeat in Japan. But we could see that again here.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Hugely experienced, Rampage (32-8), has 21 stoppages to his credit over his 40-fight career, seven via submission and 14 via (T)KO. Increasingly though, Rampage’s appearances have been going to the judges, finishing only one of his last seven bouts, albeit with a spectacularly memorable knockout of Wanderlei Silva.
A natural puncher, Rampage generally makes only token efforts at kicks, occasionally mixing in the odd leg kick with his tight hand combinations. He carries his hands quite low, and uses more evasion than blocking to defend his head, slipping and rolling and returning with his own punches. Rampage operates best in close range, with bunches of short powerful shots, tucking his elbows in tight making a hard target to shoot in on.
Jones’ reach advantage is bound to be a major problem for Jackson, having to contend with not only the range, but his speed and variety. An inimitable striker, Jones has rapidly gone from being essentially a bag of unusual tricks, to an inspired and versatile striker with an exceptional sense of timing and distance.
When faced with the reach and back-foot tactics of Machida, Rampage struggled somewhat to dictate the range, finding himself forced to rush in attempting to land his hands, and inevitably arriving in the clinch before he could get his shots off. This pattern looks likely to repeat itself given the attributes and typical approach of Jon ‘Bones.’ Rampage controls the cage well from the over-under, pressing his opponent on the fence, blocking the hip with his overhook arm, feeding his arm inside ready to catch a Mezger, like he did against Machida in the second round.
Jones dominates at range with his long limbs, and wastes no time in close, clinching up to knee or execute a throw, drawing on his extensive arsenal of Greco-Roman techniques. Once the king of the slam, Rampage’s once trademark techniques have all but disappeared from his repertoire, leaving him a fairly one-dimensional proposition against the hugely versatile Jones, who is capable of finishing fights with his hands, elbows, knees and kicks.
Rampage hasn’t submitted anybody since 2001, after stepping up to international level competition (barring injuries or submissions to strikes). Jones on the other hand, has stopped UFC opponents Ryan Bader and Jake O’Brien with his dangerous guillotine choke.
Jones has only been training in MMA for four years. He started only because he needed to make money due to unexpectedly becoming a father while in college.
Jones’ reach will extend 11.5 inches further than Jackson’s on fight night. That’s three inches greater than the advantage Bones had over ‘Shogun’ Rua.
‘Rampage’ Jackson started his mixed martial arts career 11 years ago and with 40 fights has averaged 3.6 bouts a year since.
‘Rampage’ hasn’t submitted an opponent with a choke or hold for over 10 years.
On average Jackson has become 5% more successful with his standing arm strikes since moving from Pride FC to the UFC
JOSE ALDO (19-1-0) VS KENNY FLORIAN (15-5-0)
UFC 136, October 8th, Houston, Texas
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Ultimate Fighter one finalist ‘Ken Flo’ (15-5) gets his third title shot [he also contested an official title eliminator] after being was dominated by Sean Sherk, outclassed by BJ Penn and mauled by Gray Maynard in his previous title/eliminator fights. This may not turn out much better as he faces superb UFC featherweight champion Aldo (19-1).
Now competing in his record-breaking fourth UFC weight class, Florian faces a titleholder who, even after a potentially very serious neck injury and what many saw as a disappointing UFC 129 title defense, is widely regarded as one of the sport’s very best fighters. But all inflated expectations aside; he still gave Canadian hard-man Mark Hominick a serious beating and hasn’t lost a fight since he was a teenager in late 2005.
Only Hominick and Urijah Faber (slowly obliterated with leg kicks) have even lasted the distance since Aldo exploded onto the US fight scene in 2008. At just 24, he’s over a decade younger and some would say more talented fighter than sharp-elbowed BJJ stylist Florian. If fully fit, Aldo should become just the third man, after Penn and Diego Sanchez, to finish Ken-Flo inside the distance.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
José Aldo’s perfectly adapted brand of Muay Thai works superbly in the cage, but still manages to deliver in terms of artistic merit and power. One of Aldo’s finest combinations is the left shovel hook to the liver followed up with his chopping, Dutch-style leg kicking.
Florian’s southpaw stance somewhat diffuses this most potent combination, with the liver shot harder to reach behind the lead arm and the inside leg is not quite as ideal a target. Florian himself is no fool when it comes to Muay Thai, as a representative of Sityodtong gym, Thai-style kick, knee and elbow techniques are a mainstay of his arsenal. Florian uses a little more lateral movement in his feet than Aldo, but Aldo has the superior head movement, cleverly shifting his head side-to-side without over committing his balance.
Florian uses the cage well to execute his takedowns, using an efficient lateral twist to land himself on top in side control. Aldo shoots superbly timed doubles, forcing his opponent on to the back foot with his striking and chasing them down when they are out of position to sprawl.
Both men are BJJ black belts, but very little has been seen of Aldo’s ground game in recent years. Most of the ground action he has presented has been hammering away with ground ‘n’ pound from top position, rather than passing and hunting for the submission.
Against Hominick, Aldo was ineffective from off his back. Florian has an excellent back control, and a knack for finishing from that position, with eight of his nine submission victories being by way of RNC. Aldo’s sole loss, way back in 2005 when he faced Luciano Azevedo at Jungle Fight, came from that very technique.
Despite being a man known for a first-round finish, a José Aldo win lasts approximately seven minutes and 54 seconds on average.
In his UFC and WEC careers José Aldo has stuffed 93% of takedowns attempted on him, while Kenny Florian’s shoot success is 40% having landed on 25 of 60 tries.
Florian has landed 37% of his 414 successful UFC strikes while on the ground.
Aside from his number-one contender bout loss to Gray Maynard, Kenny Florian has only lost in the UFC when a title or achievement has been up for grabs: submission, decision and TKO to BJ Penn, Sean Sherk and Diego Sanchez respectively.
Florian has fought in four weight divisions across a 40lb span during his six-year tenure with the UFC
MATT HUGHES (45-8-0) VS DIEGO SANCHEZ (23-4-0)
UFC 135, September 24th, Denver
THE BIGGER PICTURE
The fighter formerly known as ‘Nightmare’, Ultimate Fighter one middleweight winner and a former UFC lightweight title challenger, Sanchez (23-4) has bagged four ‘Fight of the Night’ bonuses in his last six outings, including his furious fight of the year candidate against Martin Kampmann in March. Having competed at welterweight for most of his career Sanchez took a 155lb detour where he beat Clay Guida [2009 World MMA Awards ‘Fight of the Year’] but then took one of the most comprehensive beatings in MMA history from BJ Penn.
Moving back to welterweight he was shockingly beaten by young Englishman John Hathaway, but has since recorded decision wins over Paulo Thiago and Kampmann. Now he takes on UFC Hall of Famer and twice welterweight champion Hughes (45-8), fighting three weeks shy of his 38th birthday.
In 2008, Hughes looked over the hill, his best option seemingly fighting and beating fellow ‘old timers’ like Matt Serra and Renzo Gracie but his surprise first-round win over Ricardo Almeida put him back in the mix at the upper end of the division he once dominated. That was until Penn KO’d him in 21 seconds. Sanchez is unlikely to replicate that, but he’s much younger at 29, faster and a more modern fighter.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Matt Hughes, in spite of the remarkable improvements in his Thai boxing shown against Renzo Gracie, still strikes like a grappler and, as great a fighter as Renzo is, he is certainly not a striker of any note. Hughes instinctively wants to grab, carrying his hands forward with the fingers open, and is often indecisive about whether he is punching or pushing. He is open down the middle, and often paws too far with the rear hand, making him open to long left hooks.
Whatever the flaws in Hughes’ striking, one cannot discount his physical strength – the headlock that squeezed Almeida to sleep was set in motion by a left hook that sent him crashing to the canvas, remember.
Although Sanchez is a very stiff-looking striker, he makes up for any shortcomings with an ultra-aggressive, forward-pressure style and relentless energy. His right uppercut, which he throws to body and head, is one of his best weapons, and the jump knee he likes to throw allows him to cover distance rapidly and maintain his forward momentum when his opponent backs off. He has come unstuck against more measured strikers who have not allowed him to establish his preferred range, Hathaway and Penn being the prime examples. This is Hughes’ key.
Both men fight best from top position. On the ground Sanchez has always had flair, refining his abilities under jiu-jitsu great Saulo Ribeiro before returning to Greg Jackson. Hughes’ own ground skill, although he may refute the jiu-jitsu tag, is clearly of high black-belt pedigree, having dominated some of the best grapplers in MMA during his extensive 53-fight career.
Hughes has landed a massively skewed 61% of his strikes while on the ground in the UFC. When there he has advanced his position a staggering 76 times.
Diego Sanchez was a high-school state champion wrestler at 152lb. Matt Hughes was a two-time high-school state champion and a four-time collegiate All-American.
Of the nine submission wins on Sanchez’s record, three of those were due to strikes. Two of which came in the UFC.
Matt Hughes has been to a decision 10 times in his 53-fight career and not lost a single judges’ verdict.
Matt Hughes ranks ninth in the UFC for total takedowns with 40. Georges St Pierre leads with 68
