Issue 082
December 2011
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.
UFC on FOX
November 12th
Anaheim, California
Junior Dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez
341:100
Junior Dos Santos has out-struck his seven UFC opponents 341 to 100, for a differential of 241. His biggest domination came in 2010 when he out-struck Roy Nelson 130 to 40.
1:2
Velasquez and Dos Santos hold the first and second spots respectively amongst all UFC fighters for strikes landed per minute. Velasquez’s 7.46 rate beats out Dos Santos’ 6.79.
293:45
Cain Velasquez has managed to out-strike his seven UFC opponents 293 to 45, for a differential of 248. His victory over Denis Stojnic in 2009 saw him notch 88 hits to the Bosnian’s seven.
2
Velasquez went to the NCAA Division 1 Championship twice while at Arizona State University. He placed fifth in 2005, then fourth in 2006.
7
Dos Santos has seven knockouts over opponents in his UFC career. Velasquez was dropped twice by Cheick Kongo at UFC 99 in Cologne, Germany, the only two he’s suffered while with the UFC.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Any UFC title fight is a big, high-pressure occasion for the fighters involved but this, Cain’s long-awaited first defense of the belt he mugged Brock Lesnar for, is huge. Originally scheduled as (9-0) Velasquez’s San Jose homecoming fight, this was moved forward a week not long after the UFC and Fox inked the biggest and most important TV deal in MMA history. Wanting to make a splash as quickly as possible, they scheduled the UFC’s first ever event on broadcast TV in the US, a one-hour live special for November 12th. With the lure of the magical phrase ‘world heavyweight title’ and heavy cross-promotion on Fox broadcasts of NFL games, all involved are expecting massive viewing figures and media attention. Luckily, for a show of such colossal importance, champion Velasquez and challenger Dos Santos (13-1) are almost certain to deliver some explosive action inside the Octagon.
Brazil’s Dos Santos, a 27-year-old boasting some of the best boxing technique in MMA, a solid chin, strong takedown defense and genuine skills on the ground (which he rarely even needs to employ), is a more than worthy title challenger. Only Roy Nelson (who earned a standing ovation for stubbornly battling while completely outgunned) and Shane Carwin (whose face looked like it had been turned inside out) have ever gone the distance with him. And his first-round stoppage victims include Fabricio Werdum, Stefan Struve, Gilbert Yvel and Gabriel Gonzaga. Universally recognized as one of the sport’s top five big men, ‘Cigano’ is the real deal.
Champion Velasquez is simply one of the most immensely talented fighters to emerge in years. Making his UFC debut in just his third professional fight after struggling to find opponents anywhere else, championship success came quickly for the relentless, heavy-handed wrestler whose work ethic and conditioning are already the stuff of legend. Since 2001, only two fighters have lifted a UFC championship in, or before their eighth professional MMA fight – Lesnar and Velasquez. The two collided for the title last October and Velasquez demolished him inside a round, as he did a few months earlier to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. But for all their talent, a few questions linger about both men. Has Cain fully recovered from the rotator cuff injury that’s kept him out of
action for a year? Will Junior’s stamina hold up in a long fight at Cain’s pace? Finding out the answers is going to be a lot of fun for millions of new UFC viewers.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Dos Santos carries knockout power in both hands, and with eight TKOs in his 14-fight pro career (seven from punches), plus the submission to punches that earned him the victory against ‘Cro Cop,’ it is clear that JDS’s favored weapon is his hands. Thanks to a long reach he can deliver punches standing and slip back away from the counter, or tower over a downed man’s open guard and hammer away with brutal straights (see the Gonzaga fight from UFC Live 1).
Velasquez too prefers to box than kick, but is still well capable of throwing kicks into the mix when called for. When Velasquez faced Dos Santos’ mentor ‘Minotauro,’ he worked in some biting low kicks from the back leg and fast, whipping body kicks from the lead left leg. Nevertheless, it is still his hands that have brought him the finishes, with all but one of his wins coming from (T)KO via punches. Velasquez’s hand speed is unusual amongst heavyweights. Excellent hand speed is normally seen amongst undersized heavyweights, but Velasquez is formidably built and has shown his ability to handle even the giants of the division with his superior speed and movement.
Also his wrestling has thus far proved unstoppable on his nine-fight clean slate. Trips, lifts and tilts have put down all of his opponents to date with relative ease, even the gargantuan Lesnar was unable to stay on his feet. So adept is he at a variety of finishes for the leg takedowns, he was even able to make a shot from being dropped by one of Cheick Kongo’s punches. Dos Santos rarely attempts a takedown himself, normally his fights find their way to the mat when he has dropped them with a punch to the jaw.
Dos Santos often prefers not to become embroiled in the ground game, and manages to keep himself disengaged by standing over the guard and throwing long straights rather than attempting a pass, or riding the turtle and throwing hooks rather than taking the back. Similarly, Velasquez’s approach to the ground game is typically wrestling based, positioning himself to ground ‘n’ pound with leg rides on the turtle or standing over the downed man.
TUF 14 Finale, December 3rd,
Las Vegas, Nevada
Jason Miller vs. Michael Bisping
58%
Over half of Jason ‘Mayhem’ Miller’s wins have come by submission, six by rear naked choke and four by arm triangle.
14
Mayhem last competed in the UFC back in 2005 at 170lb against Georges St Pierre. He succumbed to five GSP takedowns and a massive 14 guard passes on the way to a decision loss.
0
Michael Bisping has never been submitted in seven years of MMA competition despite facing experienced jiu-jitsu players Dan Miller, Denis Kang and Eric Schafer as well as black belt judoka Yoshihiro Akiyama.
14
In the last five years ‘Mayhem’ Miller has gone 10-3 (1 NC) in 14 fights. Five of those opponents were past or future UFC veterans, against whom he went 3-2.
71.2%
Bisping has successfully evaded nearly three quarters of his UFC opponents’ strikes, ranking him eighth amongst his peers.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
After coaching opposing teams on the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter before the UFC’s new deal with Fox brings immense changes to the show, middleweight controversy magnets Bisping (21-3) and Miller (24-7,
1 NC) square off in Las Vegas. A TUF 3 winner himself and sporting an impressive 11-3 UFC record, Bisping has won three straight (decisions over Dan Miller and Yoshihiro Akiyama and a good battering of Jorge Rivera) and should be no more than a win or two away from a title shot. Standing in his way is professional attention-seeker ‘Mayhem,’ whose last UFC fight was way back in 2005 – a clear decision loss to Georges St Pierre. Since then he’s been best known for MTV’s gloriously silly Bully Beatdown and instigating a foolish post-fight brawl with the Cesar Gracie camp that helped then-employers Strikeforce get kicked off network TV. Inside the ring/cage, he’s largely been defeating mediocre opposition and losing to anyone who’s ever been vaguely linked to anyone’s top 10 rankings. A UFC regular, Bisping has consistently faced tougher opposition, is a much better striker and has more than enough skill on the mat to negate Miller’s usual submission-tinged attack. Look for Bisping to punish Miller with punches and kicks and stop him inside the distance.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
A disciplined striker, Bisping carries his hands high, with his palms open and relaxed until he throws the punch. If there is one thing you can guarantee with ‘The Count’ it is that he will come in in shape. Bisping always maintains a high workrate consistently over three rounds, and it is this consistent pressure, rather than one big shot, that normally earns him the stoppage.
Bisping has developed his striking and wrestling simultaneously, and comfortably switches between counter fighting and pressure fighting, threatening with or scoring the takedown, then striking again in high volumes. He also likes to cut off the cage, and shoots a great double when the opponent is backed to the fence.
The long-limbed Miller is a wilder striker than The Count, and doesn’t really possess big one-shot stopping power. Mayhem never misses an opportunity to showboat, but with a highly active opponent like Bisping, he may be unwise to play games.
Submissions are far and away the strongest aspect of Miller’s game, with 14 submission wins to his credit. The overwhelming majority of those finishes are from arm triangles or rear naked chokes. Bisping though, in all of his 24 fights has never been submitted, having suffered only one stoppage at the hands of Henderson, and dropping two decisions.
Having spent a large portion of his career fighting in Japan, Mayhem made great stock of the rule allowing knees to the head of a downed opponent, trapping his man in the front headlock or beneath side control and smashing them with knee strikes. On American soil Mayhem will be denied this method of attack.
Bisping has exemplary hip movement, and has proven extremely hard to pin, scrambling back to his feet tenaciously if ever he gets taken down.
UFC 139, November 19th,
San Jose, California
Brian Bowles vs. Urijah Faber
90%
When Brian Bowles gets a win it’s a finish 90% of the time. In 10 victories the 31-year-old has only gone to decision once. Even his sole loss was a TKO doctor stoppage.
210
Brian Bowles was WEC bantamweight champion for 210 days between WEC 42 in 2009 when he knocked out Miguel Torres and WEC 47 in 2010 when Dominick Cruz beat him via doctor stoppage.
1,110
Come fight night, it will have been 1,110 days since Urijah Faber held the WEC featherweight belt, the longest championship drought of his career.
3:30
When Brian Bowles defeated Damacio Page for the second time at UFC Live 3, he replicated his first win exactly. Both times he finished Page with a guillotine at 3:30 of the first round.
23%
Only 23% of Urijah Faber’s 30 career bouts have gone to the judges, with none of his five losses coming by submission.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
After years of seemingly effortless championship success, as the ‘face’ of WEC, ‘California Kid’ Faber (25-5) has gone 4-4 in the last three years and, at 32, is getting on for a lighter weight fighter. Still, he’s been facing the best of the best, and even in defeat he’s stubbornly pushed the likes of Mike Brown and Dominick Cruz all the way to the final bell. In this bantamweight title eliminator, opponent Bowles (10-1) is also a former WEC champion thanks to his shocking obliteration of Miguel Angel Torres a couple of years ago. However, in losing the championship to Cruz a few months later, the oft-injured Bowles was severely outclassed. Now 2-0 as a UFC fighter, Bowles beat Takeya Mizugaki at UFC 132 in a somewhat dull fight and will need a much better performance to beat Faber – a man seemingly incapable of engaging in a bland bout. With his powerful wrestling and sturdy boxing, Bowles is a genuine contender and the winner here will likely earn another title fight in the first half of 2012. It could easily go either way but Faber is the more experienced, versatile fighter and should just about pick up the win.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Bowles utilizes his long arms with both his combination punching, sneaking around the guard, and his trademark guillotine, synching it up with ease, cranking the neck as he applies the choke. Bowles seems able to find a way to attack with the choke from virtually any position: attacking the turtle, defending the double, Bowles has mastered the variations.
Faber, compact and explosive, loses out on range against Bowles. No stranger to being the shorter man, Faber has faced the likes of Cruz (twice) and José Aldo. He did suffer from a lack of reach on these occasions though, being left unable to apply his excellent style of Thai boxing to his full potential.
Like Bowles, Faber is a master of the choke, earning 11 submission wins out of his 25 victories, all by rear naked choke or guillotine. Faber tends to use a high elbow finish to the standard guillotine, whereas Bowles favors the arm in variations, which have brought him six of his 10 wins.
