Issue 079
September 2011
FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts
Yushin Okami vs Anderson Silva // Forrest Griffin vs Mauricio Rua // Brendan Schaub vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.
Yushin Okami (26-5-0) vs Anderson Silva (28-4-0)
UFC 134, August 27th 2011, Rio de Janeiro
The bigger picture
What a difference a couple of fights make. A year ago, it took all of motormouth Chael Sonnen’s promotional antics to convince many that an Anderson Silva (28-4) fight could be worth paying to see. Arguably the most gifted fighter in the sport’s history, ‘The Spider’ had infuriated his employers and enraged paying fans with his disdainful non-performances against Patrick Cote, Thales Leites and Demian Maia. Choosing to showboat for just over 12 rounds (it would probably have been 15 had Cote not hurt his knee) left a huge, ugly stain on his marketability and reputation. And then along came Sonnen, motivating Silva into action before the fight and forcing him to dig deep with a fifth round triangle submission in a fight he was losing by a country mile. Widely regarded as the fight of the year, the August 2010 epic was followed in February with Silva’s stunning first-round front-kick knockout of Vitor Belfort. Now, in seeking a 14th consecutive UFC victory, and ninth title defense, he faces the last man to actually beat him in a fight.
Giving Yushin Okami (26-5) the ‘Thunder’ nickname after Japanese pro wrestling legend Jushin ‘Thunder’ Liger may well be the finest example of irony of the decade. Liger was a supremely entertaining performer while Okami’s reserved style means he’s had to wait years to finally get the title shot he was first linked with way back in 2007. Debuting in the Octagon in 2006, Okami has gone 10-2 with eight of his fights going the distance. He’s only lost to Rich Franklin and Sonnen but has failed to generate much in the way of excitement as he’s wrestled and outworked people. And that January 2006 win over Silva, thanks to a first-round disqualification for an illegal up-kick to the face that landed while Okami was in Silva’s guard, seems a fairly spurious one. Even with Okami legitimately knocked silly (although he did continue in the evening’s tournament) it could hardly be considered a commanding win.
Belfort may have shriveled under the bright lights and the pressure of his largely undeserved UFC 126 title shot, but Okami is made of sterner stuff. He’ll still be outclassed by a much better fighter though, and hopefully one motivated to put on a truly dominating, entertaining show for his countrymen.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Okami is a natural southpaw who sometimes switches stance, Silva is truly ambidextrous and fights with equal competency from either side leading. In their first fight, Silva elected to take a southpaw stance, while Okami switched to a right-side lead. Silva frustrated Okami’s numerous takedown attempts easily, thwarting them with fast footwork and blocking his shoulders with outstretched arms. Former Okami opponent and current training partner Chael Sonnen appeared to have written the blueprint for taking Anderson down, charging down the center line: ignoring all the peripheral information, the many feints and twitches that Silva plays out with hands, feet and stance.
We will see if Okami has learned Sonnen’s secrets, and if the strategy is still valid on an uninjured Anderson.
Physically, the two bear clear similarities in height, reach and build. Stylistically too, as strikers, both men have much in common. They both exploit a long reach with straight punches, fight from both sides, utilize the knees from plum clinch. Silva, however, is simply far more able. Although Okami may match him well for reach, few fighters in all of MMA can approach Silva’s sense of distance and timing; middleweights with the Spider’s speed, both in his movement and reaction times, are few and far between. Silva overwhelms his opponents even before he connects with a single punch or kick. His baffling array of strikes from any angle, with hands, elbows, feet and knees, coupled with his unpredictable head movements and footwork patterns make his intentions impossible to discern for lesser strikers. Okami is far more conservative, rarely kicking, throwing few fakes and waiting for the moment to let go his long, straight one-two.
Okami does like to press the action against the fence, but is often content to wait, not expending quite enough effort to press his advantage. The clinch-athon that was the initial 10 minutes of his title eliminator match with Nate Marquardt was the perfect example, as Okami pushed Marquardt to the fence and spent a tedious first two rounds attempting lackluster single-legs before breaking, only to clinch again.
Okami works well from top position, posturing up in the guard and using his long reach to rain down punches. Yet Anderson defends himself exceptionally well from his back, normally placing himself out of range because of his long legs and torso. With Okami’s greater reach he may have more success penetrating Anderson’s defense.
When Okami fights have gone to the scorecards he has been victorious 75% of the time.
Okami made his UFC debut just 60 days after Silva in 2006, and has only one fewer fight in the organization.
Silva has the second most knockdowns in modern UFC history with 13, only one behind Hall of Famer Chuck Liddell.
On fight night it will been 2046 days since Silva last tasted defeat – a DQ loss to Okami at Rumble on the Rock 8 in January ‘06.
Okami has successfully defended 83% of takedowns while in the UFC, ranking him seventh overall
FORREST GRIFFIN (18-6-0) VS MAURICIO RUA (19-5-0)
UFC 134, August 27th, Rio de Janeiro
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Another rematch sees two former UFC light heavyweight champions revisit their dramatic UFC 76 battle. Then, former Pride golden boy Mauricio Rua (19-5) was making his UFC debut while Forrest Griffin (18-6) was one seemingly unlikely win away from a title shot. The heavy favorite, ‘Shogun’ took a beating, gassed out badly and Griffin finished him with a bonus-winning rear naked choke late in the fight. Many blamed a Rua knee injury but Griffin was himself competing with a serious ankle injury and a recurring shoulder problem. Since then, Rua has gone 3-2, he looked awful outlasting Mark Coleman, hammered Chuck Liddell, was robbed against Lyoto Machida, only to lift the title in a rematch and then lose in his first defense to free-form thrashing machine Jon Jones. Griffin also dropped the title straight away, battered by Rashad Evans at UFC 92. Since then, he’s fought three times, being annihilated by Anderson Silva and scoring solid decision wins over Tito Ortiz and Rich Franklin. In an ever-changing division where five former champions are still hovering around title contention, a win here could put either Griffin or Rua one very large step closer to another title match – though with ‘Bones’ Jones as champion that likely wouldn’t work out well for either of them.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Shogun and Griffin are almost indistinguishable in terms of experience. Stylistically too, there are an abundance of parallels, the evidence of which can be seen in their first fight. Auguring things to come in his post-Pride career for the tragically inconsistent Rua brother, that disastrous first UFC showing for the Brazilian culminated in a gassed Shogun giving his back and being choked by Griffin. However, the action that preceded the finish showed some marked similarities between the two in technical terms. Griffin dominated physically, with superior workrate and size; but in terms of technique the action was quite similar. Both men slugged it out from the same range, soaking up each other’s combinations and executing their takedowns. Griffin captured a series of low bearhug bodylocks and sagged on them, Shogun attempted single-leg tackles from close range, ducking under Griffin’s broad left hook, both men electing to finish with trips. An array of jiu-jitsu attacks and escapes ensued, with Griffin coming out on top.
Like many of the Pride fighters, Shogun arrived in the UFC looking distinctly undersized next to his American counterparts, and at six-foot-three Griffin is one of the most physically imposing men in the division. Griffin carries his hands around his chin with fists closed, always ready in punching position. Shogun carries his hands high with a more Thai style, with the palms open, facing outwards. In line with the Chute Boxe Muay Thai style, Shogun is a pressure fighter. While Griffin is more content to give a little ground and use a little lateral movement before planting his feet to swing back.
‘Shogun’ Rua started training in MMA when he was 16 years old, 14 years ago. That beats Forrest Griffin’s start point in 2000 by three years.
When Rua fought Griffin at UFC 76 in 2007 he attempted six takedowns in the opening round alone. He worked for six more in the following rounds.
Forrest Griffin is ranked eighth amongst UFC fighters for strikes landed per minute at 4.53.
While fighting in the Octagon, Rua has only managed to successfully defend 12% of takedown attempts.
In Griffin and Rua’s previous meeting, Griffin out-struck Rua nearly three to one, landing 146 strikes to Rua’s 53
BRENDAN SCHAUB (8-1-0) VS ANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUEIRA (32-6-1)
UFC 134, August 27th, Rio de Janeiro
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Fighting professionally on home soil for, amazingly, the first time, heavyweight legend ‘Minotauro’ (32-6-1 1 NC) is near-guaranteed a hero’s welcome in one of those fights that could greatly sadden the ticket-buying customer. Aged 35 and riddled with injuries, the former Rings King of Kings, Pride and UFC interim heavyweight champion is facing a younger, heavy-handed, athletic fighter coming off a ‘legend-killing’ win and looking to add a second. Seven years younger, Schaub (8-1) has impressed since his TUF 10 finale KO loss to Roy Nelson. Putting together a four-fight win streak that includes a decision victory over Gabriel Gonzaga and that UFC 128 KO over Mirko ‘Cro Cop’, Schaub is a heavyweight on the rise. While the former Arena Football star has been busy, Nogueira has been sidelined with knee and hip injuries since his devastating first-round demolition at the hands of Cain Velasquez back in February 2010. Nogueira is the more talented, experienced all-round fighter, and he’s been written off plenty of times before but, at this stage of his career, coming back from an 18-month absence to face a quality prospect like Schaub, things may not go well for him.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
The master of fighting from his back, Nogueira has always used his exceptional punch resistance to remain focused on his goals of sweep and submission from guard and half guard. For a long time Minotauro was considered to have a chin of granite, but the knockout losses to Mir and Velasquez have done much to dampen that perception. Although he may no longer be considered indestructible, Nogueira is no doubt durable and carries with him a wealth of experience that simply dwarfs the newcomer Schaub’s short career.
Blessed with a long reach and good hand speed for a heavyweight, Schaub sets up his right cross with the jab down the middle or the left hook, and sends the right slightly looping over the top of the counter jab return. He carries his hands a little low, especially the left. Like Nogueira, he rarely utilizes kick or knee techniques, preferring to box. There is no doubt that Schaub pins his hopes of finding a finish on that big right hand, with six of his eight professional career wins coming by way of (T)KO due to punches. Although he has shown his competence as a submission artist in his unregistered TUF ‘exhibition’ appearance, he can’t hope to match Nogueira, universally acclaimed as one of the all-time great MMA jiu-jitsu practitioners, with a total of 20 submission wins and no submission losses since his 1999 debut. Schaub’s claim that he may take Minotauro down and submit him smacks of either gamesmanship of over-confidence.
Brendan Schaub has landed 140 of 378 UFC strikes, giving him an accuracy of 37%.
Across each of their five UFC fights, Schaub’s weigh-in digits have averaged at 241lb while Nogueira has averaged 237lb, a difference of 4lb.
The largest weight disadvantage Nogueira has ever contended with was a discrepancy of 157lb against the 390lb Brazilian man-monster Zuluzinho in Pride in 2006. ‘Big Nog’ won by triangle in round one.
At 89% nearly nine out of every ten of Nogueira’s UFC strikes have landed during the stand-up.
Big Nog has held a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu for 12 years. He received it in 1999, seven years before Brendan Schaub started training for fighting
