Issue 081

November 2011

First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.

650

In his last 10 fights, Georges St Pierre landed 650 successful strikes. That’s 176 fewer strikes than the 826 Nick Diaz has landed in his last 10 fights

4%

St Pierre ranks first out of all UFC fighters in four statistical categories. He has the most takedowns (68), best takedown accuracy (77.3%), most significant strikes landed (977) and highest total strikes landed (2016)

488

St Pierre and Diaz were concurrent welterweight champions of their respective promotions for 488 days. From Diaz winning the Strikeforce belt in January 2010 to his relinquishment in June 2011.

0

In 32 professional fights and 10 years of MMA competition, Nick Diaz has never been submitted.

46%

Nearly half of Georges St Pierre’s career bouts, 11 of 24, have been contested with the UFC welterweight title up for grabs

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Between them, UFC welterweight champion Georges St Pierre (22-2) and former Strikeforce welterweight king Nick Diaz (25-7) boast a combined 19-fight winning streak stretching back to 2007. Diaz has the slight edge with his 10 consecutive victories – just one of which went the distance – and he’s delivered far more entertainment along the way, albeit against less established competition. 

While GSP was outscoring Thiago Alves, Dan Hardy, Josh Koscheck and Diaz teammate Jake Shields over 20 rounds of mostly wrestling and control or effective jabbing, Diaz was electrifying audiences with wild brawls and decisive finishes against Scott Smith, Marius Zaromskis, Hayato Sakurai, KJ Noons (his only judges’ decision in years), Evangelista Santos and Paul Daley.

Worryingly for Diaz, however, those lists show a very real gulf in quality between the UFC and Strikeforce and he also hasn’t faced a great wrestler in a long, long time. That could be very important since, despite his lack of any formal high school or college wrestling background, GSP is perhaps the best wrestler in MMA.

Diaz isn’t the sort of media-friendly champion the UFC would normally embrace and his marijuana advocacy makes him an unlikely endorsement magnet, but he’s one of the sport’s most unique, enthralling characters. He makes sharply dressed three-time ‘Canadian Athlete of the Year’ GSP look like a boring corporate suit. And there’s a very real chance Diaz will take St Pierre’s title back home to Stockton, California. Fitter than probably any other fighter, triathlon-loving Diaz simply doesn’t run out of energy, and that’s despite an exceptionally high work rate. 

He also seems genuinely fearless and has no trouble convincing himself he’s the best fighter in the world. Whatever happens, Diaz, who’s been fighting professionally since he was a teenager, won’t be intimidated by his opponent or the occasion. Aware of all the largely justified criticism his recent performances have earned, and perhaps noting there were even points in the Jake Shields fight in front of 55,000 Canadians at UFC 129 where his adoring countrymen booed him, GSP may get dragged into Diaz’s favorite kind of fight. 

And while it’s true St Pierre was troubled by an eye injury against Shields, he also actually lost rounds in a fight for the first time since 2007. Still, even with a few questions hanging over him, GSP should go into this fight the heavy favorite. But, if Diaz can avoid the takedowns, or if the champion is as leery of Diaz’s ground game as he was of Shields’ and opts to keep it standing, this becomes a very winnable fight for the Californian.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

If any fighter in the world has the chin and guts to withstand GSP’s attrition tactics, it has to be Diaz. Having pulled through numerous beatings early on in his bouts – including a vicious onslaught from arguably the division’s biggest hitter, Paul Daley, most recently – Diaz is undoubtedly a master of riding out a storm. Hanging on in his guard or in the turtle, Diaz bides his time and has recovered from onslaughts that would have finished most men. 

What GSP brings however, is not exactly that. Rather than a wild attack that leaves himself blowing, GSP carefully meters out his attacks, gently pressing the accelerator and pulling back enough to maintain a constant pressure over the full five rounds. The likelihood of Diaz surviving the kind of pressure the reigning UFC champion brought to bear on his teammate Shields is almost assured, but the question is whether or not GSP will expend enough energy to allow Diaz into the fight later on, as Diaz typically does. 

One would expect GSP, based on recent form, to withhold any serious expenditure of energy in pursuit of a finish, and continue to be evasive throughout. Diaz’s hopes may lie in GSP capitulating to pressure from fans to pursue a finish more aggressively, thus allowing him to capitalize as his reserves wane.

St Pierre’s excellent in-and-out footwork will be required to prevent getting stuck in Diaz’s superior boxing range and being picked off by the typical Diaz-style head-and-body punch combos. GSP could potentially find his punches falling short against the unusually built Diaz, but it’s hard to imagine Diaz foiling his takedowns. St Pierre has consistently left the very best wrestlers in the game with their shoulders on the mat. Koscheck, Hughes, Fitch and even the freakish flexibility and balance of Penn could not stop the Canadian’s takedowns. Although he rarely strays from a conventional repertoire of doubles and singles, with the kind of finishes that are known to all and sundry from high school-level wrestling, the reigning champion executes his leg tackles with perfect timing, speed and power. 

Diaz himself acknowledges that his takedown defense has never been particularly good – expect to see him go to his guard and work his legs up when GSP shoots in. GSP’s only submission loss in MMA came way back in 2004, to the then-indestructible Matt Hughes, when he was catapulted into a title fight with only seven pro fights behind him. Aiming to submit Georges from the guard is a statistical long shot, and the champion has hardly been seen with his back to the mat in years.

UFC 137, October 29th, Las Vegas, Nevada

Carlos Condit vs. BJ Penn

1.1

Despite starting his MMA career in 2002 one year after BJ Penn, Carlos Condit has eight more fights under his belt. He’s averaged 1.1 bouts more than Penn per year, with 3.6 fights a year compared to Penn’s 2.5

6:5

Condit will have a six-inch reach advantage and a five-inch height advantage over BJ Penn. Penn has never faced a discrepancy so large in his entire career

42%

Penn has advanced his position on the ground 42 times in his MMA career, and despite his grappling pedigree has only attempted 0.63 submissions every 15 minutes of fighting

12

BJ Penn has been a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Andre Pederneiras (Nova Uniao head trainer) since 1999, or for 12 years. Condit is a purple belt in BJJ

80%

A massive 80% of BJ Penn’s fights have been held under the UFC banner for a total of 59 rounds of action

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Risking a strong case for a title shot by fighting the ever-dangerous BJ Penn (16-7-2), Carlos Condit (27-5) has long been one of the sport’s most dynamic young fighters. Still just 27, the former WEC welterweight champion is coming off a pair of highlight-reel knockouts of Dan Hardy (left hook, UFC 120) and previously unbeaten Dong Hyun Kim (flying knee, UFC 133). Fast, aggressive, well-rounded and young yet experienced, he looks like a serious title threat.

It’s been an odd couple of years for Penn. Frankie Edgar used his speed and efficient striking to take his UFC lightweight title and then, after so many had convinced themselves Penn deserved an immediate rematch and the first fight was a fluke, Edgar repeated the trick, only more emphatically. In response, Penn moved up to 170lb again – a division some say he’s too small for – KO’ing old rival Matt Hughes in 21 seconds before battling to a deeply unsatisfying draw (where he took a real beating in the third) with Jon Fitch. With the winner set for a title shot we’ll either get an unappealing rematch (many feel GSP-Penn II needs no repeating) or the far more fascinating options of Penn-Diaz, Condit-GSP or Condit-Diaz. Look for the fresher, still-rising Condit to edge out the Hawaiian.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Tall and limby, Condit towers over the natural lightweight Penn. He makes the most of his range with his roundhouse kick and long knee, but tends not to exploit the range of his arms, keeping his punches quite compact. Penn heavily favors his hands, preferring to box than use any Muay Thai technique. In spite of the height and reach disparity, Penn should be able to trade comfortably on the inside. Expect Condit to tie Penn up and use his Thai clinch skills rather than go punch for punch with him, as Condit is skilled with the knee and elbow and Penn’s hands are famous for causing terrible damage to the faces of his opposition. 

Condit has the edge in variety, as he mixes his punches to body and head, finishing on kicks and knees, and occasionally throwing in spinning techniques; Penn has the edge in hand speed, with a more fluent style. Condit uses his elbows equally well on the mat, and though he may lack the jiu-jitsu credentials of ‘The Prodigy,’ his ground ‘n’ pound and submission skills are not to be sniffed at. Penn though, has never been submitted, only losing on the judges’ cards, and twice TKO’d by the welterweight division’s dominant champions in Hughes and St Pierre – better accredited to inferior size and conditioning than skill.

A Jackson camp product, Condit will come armed with a well researched gameplan. Teammate GSP explored almost every combat aspect with Penn in their ‘09 title clash: clinching against the fence, passing guard, trading jabs and hitting doubles and singles. Even in light of his ever-improving physical presence and an excellent line in lateral throws from the bodylock, Condit cannot be compared to St Pierre when it comes to takedowns, and it is likely that Condit would struggle far more to put Penn on the mat.

UFC 138, November 5th, Birmingham, England

Mark Munoz vs. Chris Leben

1st

In 2001, Mark Munoz was the NCAA Division-1 wrestling champion at 197lb while at Oklahoma State. That year he wrestled alongside teammates, Strikeforce heavyweight Daniel Cormier and WEC and UFC lightweight Shane Roller

18% 

According to FightMetric, during his WEC and UFC careers Mark Munoz has only landed 10 of 56 attempted takedowns for a success rate of 18%

46%

During his time in the UFC, Chris Leben has succumbed to takedowns on 46% of his opponents’ attempts

6:6:28

Leben has the longest continuous service of any UFC 185lb’er: six years, six months and 28 days, come fight night. His peers have had multiple stints and fellow TUF 1 alum Nate Quarry is currently in quasi-retirement

3

Chris Leben held three titles before joining the UFC in 2005. He was a champion in both Gladiator Challenge and Sport Fight and the first WEC middleweight belt holder

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Contesting the first five-round non-title main event in UFC history, fan-pleasing brawler Chris Leben (22-7) and elite wrestler Mark Munoz (11-2) headline the promotion’s return to England. Coming off a 27-second obliteration of the once-great Wanderlei Silva, 31-year-old punishment sponge Leben has now been a ‘name’ UFC fighter for years, amassing a 12-6 record and, until Brian Stann flattened him in January, seemed like he was heading for a rematch with Anderson Silva for the middleweight crown (‘The Spider’ destroyed him in just 49 seconds back in 2006). 

One win away from real title consideration, Leben needs a strong victory here, but will find Filipino-American Munoz, one of the UFC’s most successful wrestlers, a difficult opponent. Riding a three-fight winning streak and coming off a close decision win over former top contender Demian Maia, Munoz has gone 6-1 since dropping down to 185lb, losing only by decision to Yushin Okami. Munoz’s striking is much improved but the younger Leben is a far more experienced fighter, and underrated off his back. If they hit the uncharted territory of rounds four and five, this could be a very close one, decided largely by stamina.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Both Munoz and Leben have a frankly ugly punching style that nevertheless yields great results and, no one can deny their excellent power: Munoz having five (six including Ryan Jensen’s submission to strikes) of his 11 wins via (T)KO, and Leben with 12 of his 22 wins by (T)KO, all thanks to punches.

Munoz’s striking is not yet the finished article, and he’s apt to back up in straight lines when pressurized (see the first round of his last appearance against Maia). Facing southpaw Maia, he shifted between orthodox and lefty stances in an attempt to throw him off. Leben has generally struggled against evasive fighters like Michael Bisping, and thrived in pitched, toe-to-toe battles (Wanderlei Silva). Footwork and movement could be the key to victory for Munoz, allowing Leben to back him up could be disastrous. Though Munoz’s defense against strikes may be slightly suspect, his sprawl is fast and powerful, blocking the hips with one hand while he hammers away thunderously with the other. The two-time All-American wrestler has the advantage over Leben with leg tackles both offensively and defensively.

The odds of Leben being the first to submit Munoz are slim in light of his neutralizing of BJJ champion Demian Maia. Munoz’s base is too good to sweep, he foiled back attacks by flaring the legs overhead and wrestling out. Munoz, although he keeps the finest company the MMA-BJJ fraternity in his capacity as a wrestling coach, has yet to exhibit submission skills, preferring to lay down a storm of his ‘Donkey Kong’ hammer-fist punches when he gains the top position.