Issue 064
July 2010
Our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own very different ways.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
Anderson Silva (26-4-0) vs Chael Sonnen (24-10-1)
UFC 117, August 7, 2010
Oakland, California, USA
The Bigger Picture
Probably the greatest salesman in the entire sport, it may actually be a bigger achievement for Sonnen (24-10-1) to talk fans into paying for this fight than for him to actually beat the supremely skilled Silva (26-4) and lift the UFC light heavyweight title. OK, that’s an exaggeration – but in the aftermath of his unforgivable display against Demian Maia, hordes of fans aggrieved at the way Silva had so blatantly robbed them of their hard-earned cash vowed never to pay for the dubious privilege of seeing him ‘fight’ ever again.
Of course, once the UFC hype-machine kicks in, many will simply forget such declarations and those who retain a deep-seated, burning hatred for Silva will stump up the money in the (probably) vain hope of seeing Sonnen vanquish the villain. Quite why Silva has chosen to sabotage his own career, at a time when his incredible skills are so universally acknowledged and he has a chance of making more money than the vast majority of fighters could ever hope for, is something only he can answer.
One of the most sublimely talented fighters in the history of the sport has now been booed out of the building after three of his last five fights. His shenanigans have raised questions about his mental state, his current attitude to fighting, his relationship with his employers and his apparent contempt for fans. He claimed he was trying to give the fans a show (something they vociferously rejected) in his UFC 90 fight with a hugely overmatched Patrick Cote and in his UFC 97 fiasco with the hapless Thales Leites. As for UFC 112, Maia had apparently hurt his feelings (or something). However, when he isn’t prancing around, taunting people and refusing to fight properly, Silva has looked superb at 205lb, obliterating James Irvin and Forrest Griffin.
Noting he “couldn’t stomach” seeing more than about 14 minutes of Silva’s abominable fight with Maia, Sonnen has also bashed Silva as a fraud who pretends he can’t speak English, insists his striking is full of fundamental errors and called him a “dirtbag.” If Maia upset Silva in the pre-fight hype then Sonnen’s ever-entertaining tirades will probably make him angrier than a wet cat. We’ll just have to see whether that means he’ll blitz the American and really give him what for, or revert to the kind of nasty humiliation tactics that backfired and made Maia a gutsy underdog hero to the Abu Dhabi crowd.
The 33-year-old Sonnen, a real estate agent, coach and aspiring politician in his home state of Oregon, is also a US Olympic wrestling team alternate and All-American, a punishing, well-conditioned wrestler who cuts down from well over 220lb and uses his size expertly. He’s won nine straight rounds in UFC competition, rattling off three decision victories over Dan Miller, Yushin Okami and, most impressively, Nate Marquardt. Surviving a deep cut and tight guillotine choke, Sonnen outwrestled and outworked Marquardt to earn his title shot. Busy and effective with punches and elbows on the ground, Sonnen’s real weakness is against submissions.
His last four defeats, dating back to 2005, have been via armbars and triangle chokes. When faced with top-level grapplers, Sonnen has often fallen prey to submissions. And Silva is an excellent grappler when and if a fight actually hits the mat. He also holds the UFC record for consecutive wins (at 11) and, under threat of being fired if he pulls yet another Cote / Leites / Maia stunt, Silva will hopefully fight to the best, rather than the least, of his abilities. If he does, it could be a very, very bad night for Sonnen.
Technical Breakdown
There can be no doubt about what Sonnen’s intentions will be – he cannot hope to stand and trade with Silva. Sonnen’s takedowns are fast, powerful and unrelenting. His positional game is smothering and his ground ‘n pound is hard and active, but also highly demanding in terms of energy expenditure. So far he has only applied this energy-sapping strategy over three rounds. Even for such a well-conditioned athlete as Sonnen, the extra rounds of a championship fight could potentially be his undoing, given the huge physical demands of his normal tactics. With 14 of his 24 career victories coming via decision (and not having won a fight inside the distance since returning to top-level competition in 2007), it is unlikely that Sonnen can stop the champion.
Silva’s relaxed, efficient style is in stark contrast to the American’s high-energy wrestling / ground ‘n pound method, and Silva (so often content to give away the first round as he finds his timing and distance) could well find himself on his back as he did against Henderson. Once Silva ‘switches on’, Sonnen will be hopelessly outclassed in terms of stand-up striking ability as he lobs the lead right jab like an overhand and wings out clumsy front kicks.
Sonnen will once again have to test his willingness to take one on the way in to score his takedown, as he did countless times against Marquardt. In Sonnen’s fervor to score the takedown, he can often overzealously throw his head out and into precarious positions. Usually, his grit and raw strength are enough to free him from whatever hold he finds himself in, but he has fallen foul of some high-level jiu-jitsu players, such as Maia and Horn.
Silva, while sometimes content to concede a takedown, is very difficult to out-position once there. His long legs and torso mean his head is far from his opponent’s elbows, and his long, flexible guard is extremely hard to open and pass. Sonnen’s typical method is to grind away then free himself of the tie-ups and stack the hips to give leverage to his elbows. Given Silva’s attributes, it is quite possible that Sonnen could find himself trapped in the guard and on the receiving end of the elbows instead of dishing them out.
7
Of Sonnen’s ten losses, seven have been by way of submission.
6
Number of consecutive title defenses Silva has made of the 185lb title (a new record).
5.8
Percentage of fights Sonnen has won by decision.
2.6
Inch reach advantage Silva will have over Sonnen.
72%
Fights Silva has finished by (T)KO or submission.
Jon Jones (10-1-0) vs Vladimir Matyushenko (24-4-0)
UFC on Versus 2, August 1, 2010
Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
The Bigger Picture
The last time Jones (10-1) fought, he obliterated Brandon Vera with a face-breaking elbow, bouncing back from his only ‘defeat’ – an unfortunate disqualification against a thoroughly beaten Matt Hamill. Still less than three years into his MMA career, the wildly exciting Jones now faces a tough, skilled, experienced and thoroughly bland opponent in Matyushenko (24-4).
A former UFC title challenger (albeit back in 2001 when Jones was 14 years old) and the IFL light heavyweight champion in 2007-2008, ‘The Janitor’ is a stiff test for most fighters. Since his UFC return, he’s gone 2-0 but neither of his workmanlike decision wins over Igor Pokrajac and Eliot Marshall attracted the kind of praise as Jones’ series of highlight-reel stuffed muggings of Vera, Hamill, Jake O’Brien and Stephan Bonnar. Matyushenko is a good fighter who, at 39, is at the tail end of a long, solid fighting career. Jones is a genuine phenomenon. Look for him to overwhelm the veteran, be only the third fighter (after Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Andrei Arlovski) to finish him inside the distance and continue his seemingly unstoppable march to superstardom.
Technical Analysis
The veteran brawler Matyushenko, while capable of delivering powerful punches, has never developed much finesse in his striking style. Jones, on the other hand, is steadily adding finely tuned Muay Thai technique to the natural flair he has for striking. At range, the edge Jones has is obvious. The much taller American will have a huge reach advantage over the stocky Belorussian, but, in close, Jones’ higher elevation will leave him susceptible to Matyushenko’s powerful double leg drive.
The problem for Matyushenko is Jones’ superior speed and mobility, which will make it hard for him to force the fight on the inside and make and him an easy target for Jones’ unorthodox strikes. Even if Matyushenko should succeed in closing down the distance, Jones’ masterful control of high tie-ups should leave the Russian in danger of eating knees and being thrown or tripped. Matyushenko’s short, heavily built frame will pose a challenge if Jones attempts his trademark suplex, but his timing is always superb and his range of takedowns is broad enough to tackle any opponent.
17
Active since 1997, Matyushenko has 17 more professional fights on his resume than Jones.
18
Jones has scored a total of 18 takedowns (out of 19 attempts) in his UFC career.
84.5
Jones has the longest reach in the UFC, an incredible 84.5 inches.
17
Matyushenko is 17 years, six months and 19 days older than Jones.
80%
Jones has finished eight of his ten bouts by either (T)KO or sub
Takanori Gomi (31-6-0) vs Joe Stevenson (31-11-0)
UFC on Versus 2, August 1, 2010
Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
The Bigger Picture
At 31, ‘The Fireball Kid’ Takanori Gomi (31-6-0, 1NC) is already several years removed from his destructive prime, and he looks ever-more unlikely to recapture that form if his recent, dismal outings are any indication. Between his late 2003 drubbing at the hands of BJ Penn and his early 2007 submission loss (later a no contest) to Nick Diaz, Gomi was one of the world’s best and most exciting fighters. The impish Japanese poster boy went 13-1 against some of MMA’s very best. Since the Diaz fight, he’s gone 4-3 and looked a shadow of his former self. His UFC debut in March saw him look exhausted in the second round, have no answer for Kenny Florian’s slick striking, mount little offense, take a beating and tap out.
Joe ‘Daddy’ Stevenson (31-11-0) is also coming off a loss, in a stubborn ground war with George Sotiropoulos in February. He’s been beaten by Penn and Florian too, but has been far more impressive than Gomi of late. With recent wins over Nate Diaz and Spencer Fisher (and the perfect kind of well-rounded, physical style to give even a peak Gomi some trouble) Stevenson should pull off a clear (probably decision) win.
Technical Analysis
Heavy-handed southpaw Gomi mixes his punches well, going body to head and sneaking his shots through his opponent’s defenses at angles, working long combinations without sacrificing his ability to move and sprawl. His characteristic low stance hinders his kicking ability, but he is always ready to shoot the double or launch knees on to oncoming leg tackles. In top position, Gomi is a ferocious ground ‘n pounder, but has fallen foul of submission specialists several times. In spite of respectable submission wrestling credentials, his slightly unconventional Japanese grappling style has not fared well against high-level BJJ practitioners.
Stevenson fits this bill nicely, combining strong wrestling abilities with high-level jiu-jitsu and a killer instinct for submission finishes, boasting 15 submission stoppages among the 31 career wins he has picked up to date. Where Stevenson is likely to suffer is on the outside facing Gomi’s reach. With Stevenson’s limited kicking skills and short arms, he will struggle to catch ‘The Fireball Kid’, and the angles that Gomi throws at make it hard to slip inside his work.
80
Total number of combined professional fights. Gomi has had 38, Stevenson has had 42.
6
Gomi holds the record for the fastest KO in Pride history (six seconds).
15
Number of Stevenson’s wins that have been by submission, with eight of those by choke.
23
Combined length in years of their pro careers. Gomi has been active for 12 years, Stevenson for 11.
66%
Two thirds of Gomi’s losses have come by submission
