Issue 070
December 2010
FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts.
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, our technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.
Georges St Pierre (20-2-0) vs Josh Koscheck (15-4-0)
UFC 124, December 11, 2010, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
57*
Koscheck has only secured 57% of takedown attempts in the Octagon and only got one of four attempts when he battled GSP previously.
104*
In the pair’s first meeting, St Pierre outstruck Koscheck by 118 to 14, leaving a discrepancy of 104 hits. However, the Canadian missed 145 other attempts.
0
When they fought in 2007 Koscheck managed zero positional improvements on the ground, despite being put on his back with two successful takedown attempts.
7
Georges St Pierre is on a seven-fight win streak. The last time he had one of that length was in 2004. It was abruptly snapped by a Matt Hughes armbar at UFC 50.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Looking to make the sixth title defense of his second reign, UFC welterweight champion GSP has, without question, won (and that’s ‘won’ meaning ‘dominated’) 25 straight completed or near-completed rounds inside the Octagon. The last man to conceivably take a round from the peerless French-Canadian? Josh Koscheck, in their title eliminator a little over three years ago. Coming back from his earth-shattering title loss to Matt Serra, GSP clearly took the second and third rounds of his fight with one of the most decorated collegiate wrestlers in UFC history by outwrestling him in humbling fashion. But Koscheck may just have sneaked that first round. And that’s more than GSP’s subsequent opponents Matt Hughes, Serra (in the rematch), Jon Fitch, BJ Penn, Thiago Alves and Dan Hardy can say.
Twice named Canadian Athlete of the Year, St Pierre is currently more popular in his own country than any MMA fighter in the world. He’s also arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet and unarguably in the top three. Koscheck’s been on the verge of title contention since 2007 but has always managed to lose that one crucial fight. GSP outclassed him at his own game, Paulo Thiago took advantage of a little sloppy arrogance to KO him and Thiago Alves used a massive size advantage and punishing kickboxing to brutalize him over three rounds. Now, after obliterating veteran Frank Trigg, tapping out rising star Anthony Johnson and smartly shutting out a petulant Paul Daley, one of the sport’s most marketable ‘heels’ finally gets his title shot. A gleeful wearer of the black hat, Koscheck never seems happier than when he’s bombarded with boos. If he had the time, he’d probably telephone every living Canadian to call them a moose-loving seal-killer and make sure to tell them he’d be fighting St Pierre in Montreal on December 11th. Given the perfect opportunity to hype this fight as GSP’s opposite coaching number on the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter, Koscheck will almost certainly get the most hostile reception in UFC history at a packed Bell Centre.
Can Koscheck win? Absolutely. He’s a much-improved striker and a superb wrestler. He’s a legitimate title contender and in a year when Chael Sonnen hammered Anderson Silva for four and a half rounds, and Fabricio Werdum tapped out the allegedly invincible Fedor, only a fool would say Koscheck had no chance at all. But this is GSP’s world and every other welterweight lives in it. Koscheck will talk a fantastic fight, and he’ll likely give St Pierre his toughest, most memorable battle in years, but the chances are Montreal’s ever-passionate fight fans will be heading home happy.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Before these two first fought the impression was, according to Koscheck’s pre-fight publicity at least, that his wrestling pedigree equated to a advantage in the cage. In reality, Kos struggled to get St Pierre’s shoulders on the mat, and GSP hardly failed to put Koscheck down. Koscheck tried several times to score a head-on-the-inside single leg takedown. St Pierre’s hip pressure was just too much, and as Kos reached to flare GSP’s back leg he found himself sprawled upon time and again. When Koscheck finally did put St Pierre on his back, he was unable to do anything effective in St Pierre’s active guard. In contrast, St Pierre consistently neutralized Koscheck’s hooks, landed effective punches and elbows and worked to pass.
St Pierre has managed to avoid a staggering 88% of takedown attempts in his UFC bouts
St Pierre kept Kos’ hooks trapped under his hips and moved to half guard time and again, landing elbows and threatening a kimura, but not quite finishing the pass. Since then we have seen marked improvements in GSP’s passing and pinning skills (look at his second fight with BJ Penn), and little has been seen of Koscheck on his back. If Koscheck’s defensive guard hasn’t kept pace with GSP’s passing he could find himself dominated even more easily. On the other hand, Koscheck’s escapes from side control exceed his ability to effectively use the half guard position, and leaving his leg hooked in could be advantageous for Renzo Gracie jiu-jitsu black belt GSP if his sole goal is to hold him down.
Should the focus be on striking this time around, Koscheck discovered his ability to launch a knockout right cross some time ago, and has successfully transitioned from an excellent, but typical, wrestler to an excellent, but still typical, boxer-wrestler.
The specter of the upset KO loss St Pierre suffered to Matt Serra has never quite been erased, in spite of the brutal revenge GSP exacted and his unblemished record ever since. It’s no surprise that people fixate on GSP’s supposedly ‘suspect’ chin, as that one disappointment was the only chink to be seen in the champion’s otherwise flawless armor since first capturing the title.
Kos does his best work coming forward and dishing out the pressure, and will undoubtedly hope to land that big right hand. In the first bout Koscheck began to back up more and more as the fight wore on, and by round three St Pierre was kicking and combination striking more liberally than Koscheck had ever been subjected to. In simple terms, GSP has a greater variety of skills to choose from, and can approach not only every fight, but every round of every fight, with a fresh style or new tactic. If, like the first time, the more limited Koscheck can’t score his takedown and can’t find the range for his big right cross, he’ll be doomed to repeat the pattern of their original meeting.
Thiago Alves (17-7-0) vs John Howard (14-5-0)
UFC 124, December 11, 2010, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
62*
Of all the strikes Thiago Alves has landed in his career a huge 62% of them have been in stand-up exchanges.
39
By fight night it will have been over 39 months (and ten fights) since John Howard secured the last of his six submission victories in competition.
3
‘Doomsday’ held three separate title belts before signing with the UFC at the end of 2008
.2001
Alves is on a two-fight slide, the last time he went 0-2 was way back in 2001 for the first two fights of his career.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Without a win in over two years and given one last chance to prove he can still make welterweight, the pressure is on for American Top Team standout Alves. He takes on Howard, a somewhat unremarkable talent but an exceptionally tough human being. Injuries, defeats to elite 170lb'ers Georges St Pierre and Jon Fitch, plus his continued struggle with the scales may have slowed his career progress. But the 26-year-old Brazilian is a beautifully destructive force. In a fighting career that started when aged 15, he’s laid waste to legend Matt Hughes, dominated top contender Josh Koscheck, and lasted five rounds with GSP. Across the cage, and 4-1 inside the Octagon, Howard’s most notable for his stunning KO of Daniel Roberts and the grotesque way his eye swelled up in a comprehensive loss to Jake Ellenberger. Realistically, Alves should be heavily favored to outclass Howard but things could look very different if he struggles to hit 170. He did in his most recent fight, and seemed barely present en route to losing three lopsided rounds to Fitch. It’s crunch time for ‘The Pitbull’ and if he doesn’t beat Howard he may need to think about moving to a different weight class, promotion, or even both.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Alves’ powerful striking style is always a pleasure to behold, with his left body kick and strong combination punching setting up those devastating, chopping right leg kicks with textbook form. The Pitbull brings the same thunderous intensity to his ground ‘n’ pound, dominating the top position with volleys of heavy punches, getting his whole body weight behind his strikes.
Heavy-handed Howard throws wild left and right hooks with great gusto, hitting as he breaks the clinch and chasing after an opponent whenever he smells blood. Howard’s striking, while effective, has some fundamental flaws. He’s particularly flat-footed, leaving his footwork slow and plodding. Plus he habitually drops his right hand stepping in for a left hook.
62% - percentage of Alves’ UFC fights against noted grapplers
He fended off Hallman’s attempts to finish stubbornly and showed good composure when under pressure on the mat, but in spite of good defense he’s been dominated by both Hallman and Ellenberger once put on his back.
Although his takedown defense is excellent, Alves’ entertaining striking game has been stuffed by the best takedown artists the 170lb division has to offer. In Howard, Alves faces another striker, with a less polished style, and one who lacks great wrestling or submission ability.
Dennis Hallman (42-13-2; 1NC) vs Karo Parisyan (19-5-0; 1NC)
UFC 123, November 20, 2010, Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
60*
Parisyan has completed 60% of his takedowns in the UFC while Hallman has only managed to successfully defend 25%.
3
‘The Heat’ has averaged three positional improvements on the ground per fight and landed 145* strikes to grounded opponents.
2
Hallman is one of only two men to have beaten former UFC welterweight champion Matt Hughes twice (the other is GSP).
78
A massive 78% of Dennis Hallman’s wins have been submissions across an extensive 58-fight career that started in 1997.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
In November 2009, Twitter addict and UFC president Dana White emphatically tweeted that Karo Parisyan, formerly one of the promotion’s best and most exciting welterweights, ‘Will not be fighting Saturday or ever again in the UFC!’ A little over a year later, ‘The Heat’ should (let’s not be too sure) make his return to the Octagon against 60-fight veteran and submission specialist Hallman. Hopefully Parisyan, a hot-headed but gifted judoka, has recovered from the injuries, panic attacks and painkiller addiction that seemed to have destroyed his career. Still just 28, Parisyan first fought for cash as a teenager and has only ever lost to top-notch fighters such as Sean Sherk (twice), Georges St Pierre, Diego Sanchez (in the most exciting fight of 2006) and Thiago Alves. At 34, Hallman is enjoying an unlikely career resurgence after spending most of the last decade fighting all over the US for smaller promotions. Ultimately he is a talented if feather-fisted fighter. If he’s on form and healthy, Parisyan should outwork Hallman for the decision win. If not, this could be a very short-lived UFC return for Karo.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Hailing from the Gokor/Gene LeBell school of grappling, Parisyan’s unique style of no-gi judo has produced some spectacular high-amplitude throws. Parisyan utilizes upper body tie-ups in a significantly different way from Hallman’s traditional wrestling approach, throwing from kimura holds and whizzers. Hallman often works hard for his takedown, grinding away, squeezing the body lock and hitting a lateral twist or chasing the legs. Parisyan’s style, while no less intense (perhaps even more so) is also far more relaxed, hanging out in the clinch before exploding into a fast back step and launching his opponent.
60%, or two thirds, of Parisyan’s fights have been inside the UFC Octagon
Parisyan is what might be described as a “natural grappler”, which is polite commentator code for “dreadfully awkward-looking striker”. In spite of his inability to master proper boxing footwork and punch/kick mechanics, Parisyan still throws a formidable right hand and demonstrates a willingness and ability to take a punch. Hallman too, in spite of having begun his professional MMA career in 1996, has never developed a confident striking game, preferring to shoot or clinch up from the outset.
Of Hallman’s impressive 45 career wins, 34 of them came by way of traditional submission and a great number of those were with his trademark rear naked choke. Just like in the clinch, Hallman is slow and methodical, delivering results without fireworks.
*Figures courtesy of FightMetric
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