Issue 065
August 2010
Our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own very different ways.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
Kenny Florian (13-4-0) vs Gray Maynard (9-0-0) 1NC
UFC 118, August 28, 2010,
Boston, Massachusetts, USA
The Bigger Picture
A three-time All American wrestler (on the same Michigan State team as Rashad Evans), the 31-year-old Maynard got his big break in MMA as a sparring partner for BJ Penn back in 2004. His amateur wrestling connections led him to Xtreme Couture, a couple of professional fights, and a spot on season five of The Ultimate Fighter. Eliminated in the semifinals by Nate Diaz, Maynard still impressed. His willingness and proficiency in trading punches, outstanding wrestling and solid submission defense showed him to be a confident fighter. Though he has a 9-0-0 (1NC) record, ‘The Bully’ is likely less proud of his reputation as one of the dullest fighters in the sport.
A skilled, powerful and tenacious wrestler, very few 155lb fighters can do anything if Maynard decides to take them down and smother them to a decision, and that’s exactly what he’s done in several of his fights. Is it any wonder he acquired his ‘boring’ tag? Since January 2008, Maynard has fought six times and gone the distance every time. True, Maynard has been beating quality opposition – Frankie Edgar would later go on to win the lightweight title, Maynard gave Roger Huerta an unpleasant time in the budding actor’s final UFC fight, and most recently Gray avenged his TUF 5 loss to Diaz.
Maynard’s mauling and bullying of Edgar was simply a grim experience. His wins over Rich Clementi and Jim Miller (the latter almost entirely on their feet) were dull, and his battle with Huerta was memorable for its atypical drama. Those victories made him a leading title contender, but in beating Diaz in a very close (and very boring) way, Edgar leapfrogged him and took the title from Penn. Now Maynard has another chance, since a win over twice-title-contender Florian should earn him a shot at the winner of Penn-Edgar II, no matter how stifling or crowd-killing his methods.
While Maynard sports an excellent record and is still looking for a title shot, Florian (13-4-0) has been up to his ears in them. His first crack at the lightweight belt back in October 2006 raised more than a few eyebrows. Just his second fight at lightweight and with an overall record of 6-2-0, most expected Sean Sherk to massacre him. Instead, Florian gutted out five brutal rounds, slicing Sherk up with his trademark slashing elbows, but dropped a lopsided decision. Winning six fights in a row more than earned Ken-Flo his second shot.
Sadly, that came against BJ Penn, and Florian was mercilessly dealt with, eventually tapping out to a rear naked choke. Prior to that, he’d finished five quality fighters in Dokonjonosuke Mishima, Alvin Robinson, Din Thomas, Joe Lauzon and Joe Stevenson. Oddly enough, Florian’s only disappointing fight of that winning run came against Huerta, when Florian turned what looked like a sure-fire fight of the year candidate into a master class on the art of counter-fighting.
The 34-year-old has bounced back extremely well from the Penn obliteration – outclassing and choking out Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi. Will he be able to keep the heavy-handed but more plodding Maynard at bay? Will he be able to avoid the takedowns, or use them as an opportunity to showcase his BJJ skills? It’s a winnable fight for either man, although, depending on the outcome of the Penn-Edgar main event, it may well set up a truly pointless Penn-Florian II or a fascinating Edgar-Florian fight.
Technical Breakdown
A truly complete fighter, Florian brings more tools to this match than Maynard. Florian’s kicks, knees, elbows and punches can all potentially end the fight. He sets up skillful lateral throws and single leg takedowns by exploiting his southpaw stance to penetrate the opponent’s lead leg and twist them or lift them down to the mat. Once there, Florian’s passing, pinning and finishing skills are all highly developed and polished.
Maynard’s defensive wrestling is second to none. Typifying the Xtreme Couture style of adapted wrestling, Maynard metes out severe punishment to anyone who attempts to try and take him down, using his heavy sprawl and crushing front headlock. Typical of a wrestler, Maynard is effective from top position, but from his back he can only realistically hope to scramble out from beneath the BJJ black belt. Florian can effectively strike, sweep and submit from his guard.
A limited yet heavy-handed striker, ‘The Bully’ pins most of his hopes on the big right cross. Maynard struggled a little with Jim Miller’s southpaw stance and was forced to step toward Miller’s power hand. He had difficulty finding his range with the right cross lead, something likely to happen with Florian. Add the Boston man’s faster footwork and left roundhouse kick into the mix and Maynard could have a serious problem should he be unable to get his lead foot outside Florian’s lead leg and find his range with the left hook, right-cross combo. Expect Florian to work the left body kick to counter and keep Maynard’s powerful right hand at bay.
7
Number of fights Florian has finished by rear naked choke.
6
Maynard’s last six wins have been by decision.
2
Of those six, his last two were by split decision.
4
In his last five fights, Florian has only been taken down four times.
92%
Of his 13 wins Florian has won 12 inside the distance.
Nate Marquardt vs Rousimar Palhares
UFC 118, August 28, 2010, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
The Bigger Picture
A former middleweight title challenger, Nate Marquardt (30-8-2) has a clear edge in experience over the powerfully built grappler Palhares (11-2). He’s also a well-rounded fighter and more versatile than the heel hook-happy Brazilian, who is seemingly obsessed with the hold that’s brought him five of his eight submission wins. The same hold should also have earned him a lengthy ban after his last fight where he held on, despite the referee’s clear and physical intervention, injuring Tomasz Drawl’s leg. Instead, Palhares essentially got away with it and now faces one of the division’s best in a fight where the winner can’t be too far away from a title shot.
Marquardt has gone 4-2 since his title fight loss to Anderson Silva in mid-2007, though if he’d been able to keep from fouling Thales Leites he wouldn’t have lost two points on the scorecards, and as a result, the fight. Two years ago, Dan Henderson out-pointed Palhares with a mixture of strong wrestling and precise, cautious striking – Marquardt will likely do the same.
Technical Analysis
Marquardt typifies the Jackson’s MMA fighter in many ways. Well versed in all areas of the game, he always comes in well conditioned and equipped with a smart strategy. Marquardt is (alongside teammates such as St Pierre) the model for the modern athlete. Where he has fallen down is that his perfectly balanced skill set means he does not possess an absolute mastery in any specific aspect of the game. This is how he found himself outwrestled by Sonnen and outstruck by Silva.
With a very complete toolbox at his disposal, taking a specialist like Palhares out of his comfort zone should assure victory for Marquardt. The Brazilian’s striking is terribly poor when compared to his peers in the UFC, but he is saved by his powerful wrestling and impressive submission finishes. ‘Toquinho’s mastery of leg locks is a wildcard – potentially, anybody could fall foul of the heel hook at any stage of the fight, regardless of how the bout has played out. Although a potentially high-risk maneuver, the heel hook is a frightening prospect for any fighter – resisting the hold fractionally too long can spell many months in rehab.
20
Number of fights Marquardt had between 1999 and 2005 in Japanese promotion Pancrase.
23
Combined number of submission wins the black belts hold in MMA.
2
Number of points Marquardt was docked in his fight with Thales Leites (one for an illegal knee, one for hitting the back of the head).
90
Length of suspension in days Palhares was given for refusing to let go of the heel hook on UFC 111.
72%
Percentage of fights Palhares has won by submission.
Ross Pearson (11-3-0) vs Cole Miller (16-4-0)
UFC Fight Night, September 15, 2010, Austin, Texas, USA
The Bigger Picture
Much as pedigree dog breeds vary wildly in size, shape and appearance, the lanky Miller and stocky powerhouse Pearson couldn’t be more different. Their upcoming lightweight fight should be both visually extraordinary and action-packed. At 6’1”, American Top Team rep Miller has great reach, range and superb submissions, but none of that will be much use to him if England’s Rough House fighter Pearson catches him with a few shots. Now 3-0-0 as a UFC employee, TUF 9 lightweight winner Pearson is 11-3-0 overall and coming off a great performance in March where he beat Denis Siver by decision.
Miller is 16-4-0 overall and 5-2-0 as a UFC fighter, and got his break as a contestant on TUF 5. Like Pearson, he’s coming off an impressive win, catching Dan Lauzon with a nasty kimura in a short and truly furious fight in January. In his two UFC losses, Miller was overwhelmed with strikes by Efrain Escudero and Jeremy Stephens. Once hurt, Miller seems to fall apart somewhat, leaving him desperately vulnerable, especially against a hard man with the finishing instinct of Pearson.
Technical Analysis
Pearson’s brand of Muay Thai is well adapted to MMA. He utilizes a great deal of lateral and in-out footwork, and has expert timing on his kicks. His boxing skill continues to progress, and he uses tight, minimal head movement to slip punches and counter. For a 155lb fighter, Miller is incredibly tall and rangy. He crouches low in an attempt to defend his legs and tends to double up his jab as a prelude to throwing the right cross. He also comes forward with his chin high as he looks over his punches – a common defect with tall fighters.
Fighting against someone with Miller’s reach and height on the outside poses a problem for any lightweight. Pearson boasts the unusually tall lightweights Andre Winner and Colin Fletcher among his regular sparring partners and will undoubtedly arrive with answers to Miller’s reach. Dealing with Miller’s limbs in a grappling context will probably be more challenging for Pearson. Although a competent grappler, Pearson’s striking is what makes him stand out and gives him his best chance of defeating his ATT rival.
6
Number of fights Pearson has finished in the first round (five submission, two (T)KOs).
5
Height advantage in inches Miller will have over Pearson.
5
Miller is exactly five months to the day older than Pearson.
9
Of Miller’s 11 submission wins, nine have been by choke.
88%
Miller has finished 14 of his 16 wins inside the distance.
