Issue 073

March 2011

First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical editor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.

Breakdown by the Numbers

Jon Fitch vs BJ Penn

56%

During his UFC career, Jon Fitch has completed 56% of his takedown attempts

13

Fitch has seen 13 of his 23 victories go to the judges’ scorecards

81 

Out of his 16 wins, Penn has finished a staggering 81% of his opponents by (T)KO or submission

4

Penn has not lost to a wrestling-based opponent in four years (the last being Matt Hughes at UFC 63)

Jon Fitch vs BJ Penn

UFC 127, February 27, 2011, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

THE BIGGER PICTURE

UFC.fighters are awarded bonuses for finishing their opponents and having exciting fights. To the casual fan, top welterweight contender Fitch (23-3-0 1NC) may seem somewhat less than a breathtaking spectacle. In 14 UFC fights, he’s picked up just the one bonus – ‘Fight of the Night’ at UFC 87 – where, in his first main event, he took a protracted beating but stubbornly hung on to see out the full five rounds against rampant welterweight champion Georges St Pierre. Routinely described as a “grinder”, Fitch has mauled and physically dominated a dozen UFC fighters, with Thiago Alves, Diego Sanchez, Akihiro Gono and Paulo Thiago his more notable victims. Since the GSP hammering, he’s gone 5-0, with every single win coming by decision. And in those fights, only the unheralded Mike Pierce (hurting Fitch badly in the third round at UFC 107) and elite grappler Paulo Thiago (thanks to his first-round choke attempts at UFC 100) have even won a single round against him. Still, Fitch hasn’t finished a fight inside the distance since June 2007. Despite one of the more impressive UFC records of all time (you don’t go 13-1 inside the Octagon on luck), the former captain of the Purdue University wrestling team has failed to enrapture fans with his route-one dominations of opponents who simply can’t cope with his strength, control and grimly unrelenting wrestling. Main-eventing against Penn instead of facing Jake Ellenberger in his originally scheduled fight, and with what he claims is a newfound realization of the need to entertain, this is a momentous occasion for Fitch.

Possibly the sport’s most purely talented fighter, Penn (16-7-1) had been so dominant, since returning in mid-2007 to his natural weight class at lightweight, that him losing the title – and the immediate rematch to the unfancied Frankie Edgar – was a real shocker. Since his last foray into the welterweight division started and ended with him utterly manhandled by the much bigger GSP, and with his aura of 155lb-invincibility destroyed by Edgar, Penn’s future seemed in question. A much-debated move back up to welterweight certainly started well – knocking out old foe Matt Hughes in just 21 seconds at UFC 123 – but the manner of his win leaves us none the wiser of how he’ll cope with bigger, stronger opponents deep into the second or third round. 

Of all the top 170lb'ers, Fitch could be the absolute worst matchup for the Hawaiian. A former light heavyweight, he’s much larger and a proven, well-rounded winner. BJ may well once again regret his habit of ranging through divisions.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN 

With a black belt from American Kickboxing Academy’s noted grappling coach Dave Camarillo, Fitch certainly has a strong understanding of jiu-jitsu. BJ Penn, though, is no ordinary black belt, and has the potential to submit anybody in the world.

Once credited by boxing guru Freddie Roach as having “the best hands in MMA,” Penn has lived up to that high praise time and again. He dishes out knockouts with his powerful right hand and inflicts horrible superficial damage with punches that appear effortless, raking at the skin with a subtle flick of the wrist as he connects. Penn carries his hands fairly low, evading with his excellent footwork rather than blocking punches. If any criticism can be leveled at Penn’s hand skills it’s that he’s neglected to employ his full repertoire of late, even when his primary game plan isn’t working – as it didn’t seem to be during his two championship bouts against Frankie Edgar.

Fitch hasn’t yet developed a comfortable style of striking. Although he’s unafraid to take a dig, he has no illusions about his ability to stand and trade with the better strikers he faces at his level of competition. Fitch’s wrestling is as good as anyone has to offer, though, with the obvious exception of UFC welterweight champion Georges St Pierre. Penn, however, has perhaps the greatest takedown defense in all of MMA, with uncanny reactions, incredible flexibility and a superhuman sense of balance. Given the disparity in striking ability, Fitch will surely want to put Penn on the bottom and exploit his size advantage.

Having been propelled to stardom early on in his career, with the backing of a favorable financial situation, Penn has always been surrounded by friends, family and employees, rather than trainers in a position of authority over him. In those times when the tide of the fight has turned against him (GSP II and both bouts against Edgar being prime examples), the Hawaiian superstar has nobody to advise him in the corner, or force him to fight in top condition. In spite of the continued claims from the Penn camp of a reformed BJ, his motivation to train conditioning is notably inconsistent. By contrast, AKA fighter Fitch is a consummate workhorse and very much part of a strong team rather than the nucleus of it. Fitch hasn’t finished a fight since mid 2007, but with the exception of his admirable five-round battle with St Pierre, Fitch has dominated all of his bouts with his smothering wrestling style, aggressive ground ‘n’ pound and impeccable physical conditioning.

Dennis Siver vs George Sotiropoulos

UFC 127, February 27, 2011, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Breakdown by the Numbers

Dennis Siver vs George Sotiropoulos

54%

Sotiropoulos has been successful in 54% of his takedown attempts while Siver has only managed 29%

2

Siver has (T)KO’d two of his opponents with a deadly spinning back-kick

57

Sotiropoulos has snagged 57% of his wins by way of submission

102

In his UFC career, Sotiropoulos has thrown an average of 102 strikes in each fight

73%

Sotiropoulos.has avoided 73% of strikes thrown in the Octagon

THE BIGGER PICTURE

The last time 33-year-old Aussie grappler Sotiropoulos (14-2) fought on home soil he treated his sports-mad countrymen to a spectacular display – schooling the talented Joe Stevenson on the mat in a virtuoso manner. Since then, he’s beaten Kurt Pellegrino at UFC 116 in a fight he controlled until, thoroughly weight-drained, he almost fell apart in the dying seconds, and finished Joe Lauzon with a kimura in fantastic fight at UFC 123. Surely no more than a couple of wins away from a lightweight title shot, the experienced, well-traveled Sotiropoulos will be heavily favored to beat powerfully built German kickboxing stylist Siver (17-7). The Russian-born Siver has gone 5-1 since the beginning of 2009, picking up a whopping four bonuses along the way (a ‘Fight of the Night’, a ‘Submission of the Night’ and a pair of spinning back-kick-assisted ‘Knockout of the Night’ awards). Siver has beaten some good fighters, and he’s likely the best striker Sotiropoulos has ever faced. Widely touted for future title glory, George should certainly win, but don’t be too stunned if Siver pulls off the big upset.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Siver’s record shows that nine of his 17 career victories have come by submission: misleading given the German’s forte is most certainly kickboxing. Many of those submission victories were preceded by a decisive strike on the feet, which he capitalized on to finish the fight (against Andre Winner at UFC 122, for example). Siver wastes no time when he smells blood. Sotiropoulos, a leading exponent of Eddie Bravo’s 10th Planet jiu-jitsu, has courted some controversy with his use of joint supports on his legs, allegedly lending him an advantage while grappling. The heavily muscled Siver has shown himself to be susceptible to attacks from the closed guard, but uses his build and strength to defend stubbornly. Sotiropoulos works excellent back control, but prefers armbars and kimuras from the side.Siver’s ungainly, muscle-bound striking style is far more effective than it appears at a glance. He has an excellent understanding of his range, which he imposes with intense forward pressure. Siver charges on with barrages of left and right hooks mixed with left body kicks, sometimes to great effect, sometimes overzealously running into the takedown. Short and stocky, Siver's punching range is very close. His longest weapon is the famous spinning back-kick which he delivers accurately with his heel to the liver. Sotiropolous has a range advantage, but Siver takes it on raw power. The Australian has to keep Siver on the outside and be ready to evade the rush.

Chris Lytle vs Carlos Condit

UFC 127, February 27, 2011, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Breakdown by the Numbers

Chris Lytle  vs. Carlos Condit 

70%

Lytle has gained 70% of his victories by submission

0

The number of times Lytle has been knocked out in his 11-year fight career

4

Condit has not been submitted in over four years. The last time he tapped was via kimura against Takuya Wada in Pancrase

96%

The percentage of Condit’s wins that have come by stoppage. ‘The Natural Born Killer’ has only one decision win on his record

60%*

The percentage of UFC strikes Condit has successfully avoided

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Bonus hunter Lytle (30-17-5) had an epiphany after his TUF 4 Finale snoozefest with an equally culpable Matt Serra. Losing that fight by a narrow judges' decision, Lytle set out to reinvent himself from being a tough, capable welterweight to a fighter putting entertainment value above victories and chasing those generous bonus payments. It certainly seems to have paid off, with the former pro boxer taking home a whopping seven ‘Fight…’, ‘Submission…’ or ‘Knockout of the Night’ bonuses in his last 11 outings. During that time he’s gone 8-3, and won four straight bouts. He may never get a title shot but the 36-year-old father of four almost always provides some great action. A decade younger, ‘Natural Born Killer’ Condit (26-5) is coming off a crushing KO of Dan Hardy and a win here should push him closer to the title picture. After a somewhat rocky start to his UFC career (a couple of very close fights, losing one and winning the other and a come-from-behind win over young prospect Rory MacDonald), the last WEC welterweight champion seems to finally be showing off the kind of talent that had insiders pegging him as a future star as far back as 2005. Like Lytle, Condit is only rarely involved in a lackluster fight. Expect something very special, whoever wins.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Despite being a boxer of considerable skill, Lytle is always ready to involve himself in a brawl and often gets wild as he starts to fatigue later in a bout. He’s never afraid to take one to give one and puts considerable faith in his good chin. Given his inferior range, Lytle will have to take care not to find himself on the receiving end of the same left hook that took out Dan Hardy at UFC 120. Condit, although not normally considered a particularly big hitter, works a smart game of attrition and accuracy over raw power. Condit’s long limbs lend themselves naturally to Muay Thai and he should have a considerable advantage over Lytle when kicking and kneeing. He favors his front kicks from either leg, the right head kick and kneeing from the plum clinch. A prolific finisher, only one of Condit’s 26 victories has gone to the judges, with an even split of submission finishes and (T)KOs. Lytle, by contrast goes to the judges regularly, more often than not finding himself on the wrong end, too. Lytle’s recent form over 2010 has been excellent though, finishing Foster and Brown and finding favor with the scorecards against former champion Serra. Condit’s wrestling is perhaps the weaker area of his game, but such is his confidence from his back that he's been known to pull guard and look for the sub, elbow or upkick.