Issue 068
October 2010
FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts.
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the strategic and technical considerations.
Martin Kampmann (17-3-0) vs Jake Shields (25-4-1)
UFC 121, October 23, 2010, Anaheim, California, USA
2005
Jake Shields is on a 14-fight win streak dating back to November 2005.
14
Shields has faced 14 fighters that have fought in the UFC.
100%
Each of the three times Kampmann’s fights have gone to the judges he has come out on the winning end.
68
Kampmann has spent just over 68 minutes inside the UFC Octagon.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Making his UFC debut, Shields (25-4-1) holds one of the longest and most admired winning streaks in MMA. Yet he remains a curiously unimpressive fighter.
The long-time Cesar Gracie student hasn’t lost a professional fight since December 2004. He’s won Hawaii’s Rumble on the Rock tournament, held titles at welterweight (EliteXC) and above his natural weight (Strikeforce) and of his 14 consecutive victims Shields has finished more than half. He’s beaten dangerous strikers like Paul Daley and Robbie Lawler, outclassed tough veterans such as Jason Miller, Nick Thompson and Mike Pyle, and decisioned current UFC fighters Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami (thanks admittedly to a dodgy decision). Most recently he showed tremendous heart and composure in surviving a horrid first round against former two-weight Pride FC champion Dan Henderson. Floored and seemingly on the brink of his widely predicted annihilation, Shields rallied to outwork and outwrestle the older man for a highly memorable victory.
What’s so unimpressive about that? Let’s start with his striking. It’s just awful. How about the entertainment value of his fights? Well, they’re generally execrable. True, it’s fun to watch him dismantle overmatched journeymen but against tougher opposition he may falter. But the only thing that seems to spark any interest is whether Shields can overcome his striking deficiencies, then use his underrated wrestling and superb jiu-jitsu to win. He’s also repetitively workmanlike – see his flop of a fight with Miller for a perfect example. And he’s apparently incapable of drawing fans either to arenas or to their television sets. It’s simply hard to imagine a fighter this one-dimensional being a major star for the UFC in 2010.
The more experienced Shields goes into this fight as the favorite. But he’s facing an extremely tough first opponent in Kampmann (17-3). Like Shields, the Las Vegas-based Dane is a well-traveled fighter. Unlike Shields, he’s a neatly effective, hurtful striker. Ominously for the debuting American, Kampmann’s coming off a dominating decision win over another elite grappler with poor striking skills – Paulo Thiago. And Kampmann didn’t win that fight just by outclassing the Brazilian on his feet – he controlled him on the mat, too. Another outing like that by the 28-year-old ‘Hitman’ could spell serious trouble for Shields’ title aspirations. Now in his fifth year as a UFC fighter – (8-2) inside the Octagon – Kampmann’s only lost when overwhelmed by strikes early on. Shields is hardly likely to do that. This is a clash of gifted, experienced fighters from two elite camps (Kampmann trains at Xtreme Couture) and the winner should be little more than one more victory away from the daunting task of facing Georges St Pierre (or perhaps Josh Koscheck) for the title in 2011. The more well-rounded Kampmann is certainly good enough to pull off the upset here.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Shields possesses one of the best positional jiu-jitsu games in North America, perhaps even the world. His freestyle wrestling background serves him well and, although not the most explosive shooter in the sport, he gets the takedown done even if he has to desist on the drive to pull his opponent into his guard instead. What Shields may lack in speed he more than compensates for with technical excellence in grappling.
Kampmann, although he has respectable ground skills, can’t hope to match the master of ‘American jiu-jitsu’ on the mat. Kampmann’s hopes must lie in exploiting his striking ability and superior footwork. Xtreme Couture’s MMA wrestling style should provide a strategy to combat Shields’ takedown attempts, especially given Shields’ preference for leg attacks and Kampmann’s long lower limbs and elevated stance. Recently Kampmann’s forgone kicks in favor of boxing, a strategy that should ensure that he’s able to stay fast on his feet and avoid being set up for a shot (Shields often attempts takedowns without particularly good setups).
Although Shields has developed greater confidence in his striking technique he still seems uncomfortable standing, moving about the ring with a flat-footed shuffle. In his 30 professional appearances, Shields has yet to show evidence of knockout power. The same rings true even on the ground, with only 1 TKO to his credit in the last decade (2007's EliteXC Uprising event vs Renato Verssimo).
35%
Kampmann, known for being a striker, has knocked out 35% of his opponents
In spite of his excellent positional game, Shields lacks enough power in his ground ‘n’ pound to finish off his opponents or truly excite the crowd. (As witnessed during his feather-fisted peppering of Henderson during the boring final 3 rounds of their Strikeforce title bout.) His real strength remains his jiu-jitsu skill, which few in the world can rival, even among elite submission-wrestling specialists who never venture into the world of MMA. But Shields doesn’t have the electrifying appeal of a submission specialist like Shinya Aoki or Vitor ‘Shaolin’ Ribeiro, who transitions from attack to attack. Instead Shields cooks up his submissions patiently and executes them in textbook fashion. While impressive, his fights are sometimes boring affairs often leading to decision wins that, however dominant, remain unsatisfying for the spectator. The EliteXC fight against Paul Daley in October 2008 is a classic example. Shields walked away the victor, yet relied solely on the opponent to bring excitement to the clash.
Michael Bisping (19-3-0) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-2-0; 2NC)
UFC 120, October 16, 2010, London, England
43
The time in minutes the two have spent facing their two common opponents, Chris Leben and Denis Kang.
8
Yoshihiro Akiyama won eight judo tournaments, a discipline he may look to utilize against Bisping.
220*
The total number of strikes Michael Bisping threw at Dan Miller through their fight in May.
48*
Percentage of strikes Akiyama has connected with in the UFC.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Co-main eventing the UFC’s return to London, Bisping faces habitual 'Fight of the Night' bonus winner and fading Korean/Japanese superstar Akiyama in what looks certain to be a hugely entertaining scrap. The last time Bisping fought on home soil he recovered from a shaky start to smash Denis Kang to pieces in one of the finest displays of his career. Most recently, he clearly decisioned the tough Dan Miller while Akiyama is coming off perhaps the most dramatic fight of 2010: his UFC 116 submission loss to Chris Leben. Opting to brawl with the zombie-riffic puncher instead of calmly picking him apart as Bisping did in late 2008, Akiyama earned hordes of new fans with his performance, even in defeat. Entertaining as that, and his UFC debut against Alan Belcher, might’ve been, the undersized Akiyama really should be fighting at welterweight and, in any case, seems past his best after failing to impress in his last few fights in Japan. At 35, Akiyama looks to be on the slide and Bisping should finish him inside the distance.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Once thought of as a backfoot fighter, Bisping cited consecutive bouts against wrestlers as the reason for his standard tactics and those fighters’ inhibition of his full punching power. His words rang true, demonstrating a mixed bag of pressure, retreat and lateral movement in his recent appearances against Denis Kang, Wanderlei Silva and Dan Miller. Having spent much of his career as a kickboxer with good scrambling skills, Bisping’s recently showed off impressive advances in his wrestling and a relentlessly active game from his back. He’s becoming increasingly unpredictable and deceptive, kicking high one moment, shooting low the next. Expect him to dictate the pace of this fight.
73%
Bisping has finished 73% of his fights
Size is a major factor to consider here. Englishman Bisping cuts a formidable figure at middleweight but his Korean/Japanese counterpart Akiyama appears distinctly undersized next to his UFC peers. It’ll take considerable effort from Akiyama to find his range against the reachier Bisping, and should he find himself on his back he’ll have Bisping’s considerable load to deal with. Akiyama's judo pedigree is more than respectable: his takedowns and groundwork are as good as one might expect from a champion of that discipline. Unfortunately he strikes like a judoka too, his courage outweighing his abilities. If he’s unable to close the distance on Bisping and he’s forced to try his hand trading blows, things could go badly wrong for Akiyama, who must put his hopes in power over technique.
Tito Ortiz (15-7-1) vs Matt Hamill (9-2-0)
UFC 121, October 23, 2010, Anaheim, California, USA
48
When Tito Ortiz faces Matt Hamill it will be just over 48 months since his last win.
8
Matt Hamill started his MMA career eight years after Tito Ortiz.
2*
In his last fight, with Keith Jardine in June, Hamill was successful in only two of six takedown attempts…
3*
. . .Whereas Tito managed to get three out of four takedown bids against Forrest Griffin at UFC 106.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Former UFC light heavyweight champion, twice an Ultimate Fighter coach and one of the most recognizable fighters in the world, Tito Ortiz returns to action after major surgery to face his TUF 3 golden child Hamill. Essentially trading on name value these days, Ortiz hasn’t actually beaten anyone apart from Ken Shamrock since his April 2006 split decision over Forrest Griffin. Apart from the utterly predictable wins over his old enemy, Ortiz in the last few years has been more famous for his often outlandish claims and statements, his constant injuries and his high-profile private life than anything he’s done in the cage. However, even injury-riddled, ageing and resolutely one dimensional, Tito was one fence-grabbing point deduction away from a win over Rashad Evans. He also came close to trapping Lyoto Machida with a triangle choke and some even argued (mainly due to the vagaries of the scoring system) that he deserved the nod over Griffin in their late 2009 rematch. Despite all that, the sport seems to have passed him by, at the top level anyway. His simplistic takedown-control-elbow approach hasn’t changed in a decade and Hamill, who has a very similar skill-set and approach, but is fresher, less worn down, tough, and heavy-handed, could well neutralize Tito’s wrestling, take advantage of his poor stand-up and exploit his questionable conditioning to grind out a dull decision win.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
As good as Hamill’s takedowns are, it’s his defensive wrestling that really shines. Seeing the shot coming right at its inception, he sprawls and collects the underhook with time to spare or gets a throw after his opponent’s attempt to tie him up high.
29%
Percentage of Hamill and Tito fights that have gone to the judges
Much like MMA’s wrestler pioneers who wrote the book on dirty boxing, Hamill throws his best work from a collar tie, where he can deliver combinations with power. On the outside his inexperience shows a little: He optimistically attempts ugly ‘superman’ right crosses and spinning techniques that invariably fall short of the mark. He’s has been consistently guilty of turning side-on as he tries to collect the collar tie with his lead hand. Franklin picked him up on it, as did Jon Jones, leveling him with the body kick, hitting the hard outside reap judo throw and dominating Hamill on his back.
Ortiz’s once formidable double leg attack has clearly faltered under the strain of knee injuries, leaving him tactically outdated. It should not be forgotten, during his memorable clash with Lyoto Machida at UFC 84, Ortiz demonstrated the ability to fight off his back, a major evolution for a wrestler – which Hamill, to date, has not undergone.
*Figures courtesy of Compustrike
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