Issue 066
September 2010
FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
Alan Belcher (16-6-0) vs Demian Maia (12-2-0)
UFC Fight Night, September 15, 2010,
Austin, Texas, USA
The Bigger Picture
Immediately after his thorough dismantling of Patrick Cote at UFC 113 in May, Mississippi’s Alan Belcher issued a challenge, calling out a man he simply described as “you know who.” Unfortunately, barely anyone knew he was talking about Anderson Silva, so unlikely was the idea of Belcher challenging for the UFC middleweight title. Still, he gets a chance to prove himself to skeptical fans against another of Silva’s vanquished foes (Cote had done so back in October 2008) when he meets elite grappler and recent title challenger Maia. If Belcher wins this he deserves to be considered for a title shot. The 185lb division is crammed with talent, even if everyone in it seems light years behind the champion, and Belcher has beaten some quality fighters.
Still only 26 years old, ‘The Talent’ is now in his fifth year at the UFC. Making his Octagon debut on short notice in August 2006, Belcher was off to a poor start: He went 1-2 in his first three fights, dropping a decision to stifling wrestler Yushin Okami, knocking out the tough (but unremarkable) Jorge Santiago and tapping out to Kendall Grove’s D’Arce choke.
A huge middleweight and a punishing kickboxer who’s improved greatly in the last few years, Belcher has nonetheless been dogged by inconsistency. Since joining the UFC, he’s been unable to string together more than two wins in a row. While his overall MMA record is 16-6, he’s gone 7-4 inside the Octagon. After the Grove fight he bounced back with strong wins over Sean Salmon and Kalib Starnes (who infamously ‘ran away’ from Nate Quarry), but his chin looked more than a little suspect when he was taken apart by Jason Day at UFC 83. Again though, Belcher responded to defeat by winning: a solid decision victory over Ed Herman was followed by a submission win over Denis Kang at UFC 93 (in a fight Kang dominated until gassing out). Then once again Belcher fell, albeit dropping a questionable decision to Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 100 – two wins later, outclassing Wilson Gouveia and Cote, he takes on Maia in a testing fight where even the dimmest of observers should be able to work out each man’s strategy.
Demian Maia is not a very good striker, and he’s not that great a wrestler either – but he is a phenomenal submission artist. Winner of more “Submission of the Night” bonuses (four of them) than anyone else in UFC history, the 32-year-old Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is more dangerous on the mat than a particularly virulent staph infection. With a 12-2 MMA record and a list of grappling titles as long as the Gracie family’s combined arms, Maia will be in deep trouble if he stays on his feet for long. Nate Marquardt KO’d him in just 21 seconds and his UFC 112 title challenge was a long and painful experience as the superb, but distastefully petulant, Silva humiliated him in Dubai.
Just as Belcher looks ever more well-rounded, Maia is also moving beyond being a throwback to a more one-dimensional era where a single skill set still allowed success – see his surprisingly effective (if unpopular) showing on his feet in a decision win over Dan Miller in their UFC 109 stinker. Maia really needs to take Belcher down as once they’re on the mat Maia has what looks like an insurmountable advantage in grappling skill. If Belcher can keep it standing he may well pick up the big win he needs to cement any title aspirations in his first-ever UFC main event.
Technical Breakdown
Maia, unlike anybody else, is so capable a jiu-jitsu player that he can employ his techniques unmodified from the mat to the cage. Strategic no-no’s such as pulling guard and throwing up submission attacks without covering from punches and elbows are a commonplace occurrence in Maia’s fights. Maia is not the greatest shooter, often looking to close in to a clinch and score his takedown from there, or even resorting to pulling guard to bring the fight down. Here Belcher will have to work hard not to be dragged in to Maia’s game and utilize his Thai clinch skills to control the action and break away.
The versatile Belcher can turn his hand to more or less any style of fighting the opponent demands. As a pressure fighter Belcher is entertaining; and equally so as a counter fighter, given his willingness to soak up a great deal of punishment in order to dish out payback. In this fight his tactics quite clearly have to be sprawl ‘n brawl, with Belcher lacking the skill to contend with the Brazilian on the mat, and Maia likewise lacking the striking skill to seriously pressure.
A southpaw, Maia’s striking is improving fight by fight. He learned the hard way how to time kicks (the knockout delivered by Marquardt, a standard riposte to the body kick, caught Maia unaware). Maia relied on his hands against the virtually unhittable Anderson Silva, jabbing tentatively and swiping with hooks from his lead right side. In spite of the obvious deficit, Maia nevertheless showed marked improvement in his composure and footwork.
Belcher has his share of submission victories, having pulled off a variety of finishes, but catching Maia in a submission would be nothing short of a miracle – unless preceded by nearly knocking the Brazilian senseless. Belcher thrives on hard fights, getting tougher as the fight goes on. Under duress on the ground Belcher is tenacious, refusing to be submitted. Against Yushin Okami he even dared to showboat a little when Okami held his back. Escaping Maia is a tougher proposition though, with the jiu-jitsu expert capable of submitting him from any position.
490K
Between them, Belcher and Maia have pocketed almost half a million dollars in UFC bonuses. Belcher has earned $275,000, while Maia has amassed $215,000
10
Belcher has fought in four countries (USA, Korea, Canada and Ireland) while Maia has fought in six (Venezuela, Finland, Brazil, USA, England and the United Arab Emirates)
2
Alan Belcher made his UFC debut in August 2006 as an 11-fight veteran. At the time, Demian Maia had only two fights on his record
5
Maia won his first five fights in the UFC by submission. Back then his opponents’
combined records totaled 80-26-1
50%
Half of Maia’s submission wins have been by rear naked choke.
Randy Couture (18-10) vs James Toney (0-0-0)
UFC 118, August 28, 2010,
Boston, Massachusetts, USA
The Bigger Picture
Fighting just a few days after his 42nd birthday, professional boxer James ‘Lights Out’ Toney first fought for money (at 160lb) in October 1988. He went on to capture IBF middleweight and super middleweight gold. Almost a decade removed from his other title reigns, Toney stunned boxing with his 2003 IBF cruiserweight title win. Twice suspended for steroid use, his 2005 bust cost him his newly ‘won’ WBA heavyweight title. The trickily defensive Toney now embarks on an unlikely new venture in the Octagon.
Admitting he’d verbally crucify any other promoter for presenting such a curious (if guaranteed successful) fight, Dana White will likely be as unsurprised as everyone else if the 47-year-old UFC Hall of Famer Couture bulls Toney against the fence, wears him down and grinds out a win. Couture should have the definite edge in conditioning. He’s also a decorated amateur wrestler, a 14-year MMA veteran with 28 fights (going 18-10) and title reigns in two weight divisions behind him, giving him almost preposterous edges in versatility and experience. Still, Toney is one of very few truly successful boxers to enter MMA. With those little gloves and his knack for upsetting the applecart, Lights Out could make this one of the most talked-about fights in a long, long time.
Technical Analysis
This is a true ‘style vs style’ match – history has taught us that, on average, the grappler prevails. Once the fight hits the clinch, Toney cannot hope to compete with Couture’s mastery of Greco-Roman wrestling. Likewise, Couture’s striking has never reached the standard where he could hope to trade blows with a boxer of Toney’s caliber. Even dirty boxing from the clinch, which Couture has always done so well, would be risky considering Toney’s knockout punching power.
As a boxer, Toney’s stance was very side on. He carries his left hand low and ‘hides’ behind his lead side shoulder. His versatile left hand hooks (plus uppercuts to the body and head) cue up a clubbing right hand that’s delivered many a knockout. Working with Juanito Ibarra (formerly ‘Rampage’ Jackson’s coach) he should have gone some way toward rectifying the defects in his stance, but without any MMA experience he may well revert to the habits that have led him to success in the ring.
Couture has never had the fastest footwork (even in his prime), and although Toney is likewise aging he should still possess greater mobility than the wrestler. Toney’s plan must be to stick and move, taking advantage of the expansive UFC Octagon to avoid clinching with the wrestler. Once pressed against the cage it would be miraculous if Toney could defend the takedown, and on the mat it seems unthinkable that he could have crammed in enough ground training to compete with Couture’s years of grappling education.
5
Weights Toney has boxed at: middle weight, super middleweight, light heavy, cruiser and heavyweight
40
Difference in pounds between boxing’s middleweight (160lb) and heavyweight division (200lb+)
618
Toney has boxed a total of 618 rounds. At three minutes per round, that is over 30 hours of experience
306
Couture’s 28-fight MMA career has seen him spend a total of five hours, six minutes and six seconds in the cage (or 306 minutes)
69.2%
of his 26 fights, Couture has won
Joe Lauzon (14-3-0) vs Terry Etim (18-5-0)
UFC 118, August 28, 2010,
Boston, Massachusetts, USA
The Bigger Picture
One of those frighteningly talented fighters who’s amassed tremendous experience at a young age, Liverpool lightweight Etim is 24 years old and entering his ninth UFC fight, boasting an overall MMA record of 14-3. Massachusetts boy Lauzon is 26 and has a career tally of 18-5. Two of the more exciting 155lb combatants in the sport both still have plenty of time to mature and refine their skills before making entirely plausible runs at the UFC lightweight title in the future. Both men are coming off defeats and will be desperate to not drop two in a row in an incredibly competitive weight class.
Fast, effective and aggressive on the mat, Lauzon has had a lucrative seven-fight UFC career so far, earning ‘Submission of the Night’ bonuses (twice) and ‘Fight of the Night’ bonuses (twice). Etim has picked up three submission bonuses of his own. Scheduled as a live preliminary fight on Spike, this should be viewed by far more people than watch the pay-per-view. It will serve as the perfect platform for these two to showcase their considerable skills in what promises to be an exceptionally close and entertaining fight.
Technical Analysis
Etim has maintained a very pure Muay Thai style, with perfectly executed kicks, resisting the temptation to crouch deep and box like many others. The Liverpudlian is a genuine ‘ring general’, controlling the Octagon with great footwork and accurate, well-timed strikes. The result is incredibly pleasing with plenty of stylish kicking and kneeing. But, when facing a wrestler, it’s inevitably followed by Etim falling foul of a takedown. Rather than wasting great amounts of energy resisting every shot, Etim often goes to his guard wasting no time looking for a submission. Once on the mat Etim uses his build to his advantage as competently as he does standing. His long arms dig in for a guillotine and his long legs triangle the waist or climb high, threatening an armlock or triangle.
Lauzon strikes aggressively but lacks the accuracy to make his punches pay off. His only knockout (barring one via slam) was the huge looping left hook that landed on Pulver. Like Etim, the majority of Lauzon’s stoppages have come via submission, but stylistically there are clearly marked differences. While Etim works a patient game of attrition, Lauzon explodes and attempts to overwhelm his opponent. Lauzon uses the bodylock well, driving in and twisting the opposition down to the mat. This could be a real problem for the taller Etim, as his hips are the perfect height for Lauzon to capture.
30
Combined time in minutes Etim and Lauzon fought Sam Stout, their sole common opponent
14
Lauzon has 14 submission victories on his record via seven different methods
3
Advantage Etim will have over Lauzon in both height (6’1” to 5’10”) and reach (73” to 70”)
19
Age at which both men made their professional MMA debut
97%
Combined finishing rate. Etim holds the sole decision win.
