Issue 071

January 2011

FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts

First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical editor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.

Anderson Silva (27-4-0) vs Vitor Belfort (19-8-0)

UFC 126, February 5th, 2011, 

Las Vegas, USA

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Chael Sonnen’s elevated testosterone levels robbed us all of a potentially epic rematch with middleweight-king Silva. Instead, the record-breaking champion faces fellow Brazilian and last month’s FO cover star Belfort. Silva (27-4) goes into the Octagon as the longest-reigning champion in UFC history, with additional records for the most title defenses (seven) and the most consecutive wins (12). ‘The Spider’ hasn’t lost a fight in five years, and that was for getting himself disqualified. As infuriating as he’s been in some of his title defenses (his antics in the Patrick Cote, Thales Leites and Demian Maia fights earned some long-lasting contempt), the 35-year-old boasts exceptional speed, reflexes, sublime striking, excellent grappling skills, a great chin and plenty of stamina, making him easily one of the world’s truly elite fighters.

Two years younger than Silva, but an MMA star since the ‘no holds barred’ days of 1997, Belfort (19-8) is a uniquely polarizing fighter. Many fans and pundits will always see him as a lightning-fast, heavy-handed teenage wrecking machine. Others have ‘The Phenom’ down as a congenitally inconsistent, wildly overrated almost-man who’s living off a name he acquired in the last century. Both are exaggerated positions, but do contain an element of truth. It’s long been a running joke that his fans are constantly waiting for, and touting the triumphant return of "the old Vitor." Actually, he’s currently riding a five-fight winning streak: the longest of his entire career. In 2009, he obliterated former UFC title challenger Matt Lindland in 37 seconds and then, in his UFC return (at a195lb catchweight) he smashed former champion Rich Franklin to defeat in three minutes.

Clearly, Belfort still has knockout power and strong finishing instincts. But how will he approach a fighter of Silva’s caliber? Too often in the past (most notably against Randy Couture, Alistair Overeem and Dan Henderson) Belfort has underperformed in high-pressure situations. Facing Silva in the main event of a major UFC pay-per-view in Vegas is as about as high pressure as MMA gets. 

There are plenty of questions about the champion too. Will he recover from his rib injury? Is age finally catching up with his reflex-based style? Will Sonnen physically dominating him for four and a half rounds at UFC 117 affect his confidence? Belfort may not have truly earned this title shot, but it’ll fascinating to see what happens.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN 

Southpaw Belfort stands and moves with a typical boxing style, circling to his right against orthodox fighters, keeping his lead foot outside the opponent's and standing with his lead toe internally rotated. Although Belfort has developed and polished his style he remains much the same proposition as he ever did, his primary attribute being formidable power punches, backed up by solid wrestling and a powerful top game when things aren’t working out for him on the feet. Belfort has improved considerably in terms of movement and footwork, but it’s still his brutal left cross that marks him out from his peers. Against Terry Martin, Belfort maneuvered beautifully, fighting off the back foot comfortably, luring the one-dimensional Martin onto his work. Even against fellow lefthanders Lindland and Franklin, he still found his mark with the left cross; when he chose his moment to explode. Belfort dispatched Lindland with an initial blow of the left cross, against Franklin he followed him to the mat, following his classic formula, spiral riding to Franklin’s back and forcing the stoppage with a relentless barrage of hooks. Landing a clean straight on Anderson Silva, though, is a far tougher proposition. Between his rapid switches of stance, masterful misdirection and evasive head and body movement that appears almost psychic, Silva is perhaps the hardest target in all of mixed martial arts.

Where Belfort is a typical aggressive top player, with a guard that seems to serve mostly for defense only, Silva is a completely versatile grappler. When Belfort does go to his back the fight tends to get away from him, like during his unsuccessful attempt at reprisal against Alistair Overeem on Strikeforce’s 2006 Revenge event. Silva on the other hand appears totally comfortable from his guard, attacking for submissions and unleashing his hammering elbows.

Silva has been contesting the UFC title since 2006, including ten title bouts to date. For Belfort this is his first time fighting over five, five-minute rounds. For a heavily muscled athlete whose style is predicated on explosive power, five rounds is a serious challenge. The emotional charge of taking on a former teammate could prove difficult for the psychologically inconsistent Belfort, and he must still feel haunted by the training session that allegedly left him in tears at the hands of ‘The Spider‘.

2

Vitor Belfort has only fought at the middleweight limit of 185lb twice before in his career. He won both fights by knockout, beating UFC alumni Terry Martin and Matt Lindland 

11

Belfort has earned his title shot with one win in the UFC during this most recent stint in the organization. However, the Brazilian striker has 11 UFC appearances under his belt dating back to 1997

0

Out of his four losses, Anderson Silva has never been stopped by strikes. His other ‘L’s have come through decision, disqualification and submission (twice)

4

Silva has four more fights than Belfort under his belt despite a career lasting four years less than Belfort's

68%

Belfort has won 68% of his fights by (T)KO

Evan Dunham (11-1-0) vs Kenny Florian (13-5-0)

UFC Fight for the Troops 2, 

January 22nd, 2011, Kileen, Texas

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Previously undefeated rising star Dunham (11-1) was, in this writer’s opinion, the victim of one of the worst robberies in recent judging history at UFC 119. Now he faces seemingly perpetual lightweight title challenger 'Ken-Flo' in an intriguing piece of matchmaking. Now skirting the edges of the 155lb top ten, the Xtreme Couture-based Dunham arguably beat former champion Sean Sherk (who mauled Florian to defeat in a gory 2006 title fight) with his aggressive submission attempts and superior striking. Florian (14-5), the older man by five years, is coming off a disappointing performance where he was completely shut down by Gray Maynard in a title eliminator. A win for Dunham (who has impressive victories over quality fighters such as Per Eklund, Marcus Aurelio and Tyson Griffin) will edge him closer to a title shot; but things look very different for Florian. He’s lost badly in both his title challenges (BJ Penn utterly outclassed him in 2009), and while still a top ten fighter, as shown by his wins over Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi, his role here looks to be as for a test a fresh title hopeful rather than to be a contender himself.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Both men will be forced to shake up their usual stand-up tactics in this clash of southpaws. Dunham makes great use of his long reach, throwing the left cross against an orthodox opponent, patting down his jab to send a big shot over the top. Florian uses his left leg to great effect against opponents with a mirror-image stance. Both men use good in-out and lateral footwork, both have extensive reach and neither are the most prolific of hitters but have proven ability to stop their opponents with accuracy and attrition. How the two will adjust to a same-stance opponent could be the factor that separates them.

Dunham favors his rangy punching combinations, throwing the odd kick for good measure. Florian brings a mixed bag of Muay Thai skills, combining punches, elbows, kicks and knees with a very tidy style. On the mat the match remains tight, with both men holding BJJ black belts and demonstrating a preference for choke finishes: Dunham victorious via submission six times in his 12-fight career, Florian racking up eight submission wins of 13 career victories (plus one submission from strikes versus Alvin Robinson, UFC 73).

7

Kenny Florian has a huge seven wins via rear naked choke, and at 53% the move accounts for over half of his victories

1

Florian only has one submission loss to his name. It was a rear naked choke tapout to jiu-jitsu artist BJ Penn

10

In his UFC career Evan Dunham has ten submission attempts, all unsuccessful. However, he owns six tapouts outside the Octagon

82

A skewed 82% of Dunham’s successful strikes in the UFC have come in stand-up exchanges. Most average 60% on their feet

40%

Florian has only completed two fifths of his 53 UFC takedown attempts

Jon Jones (11-1-0) vs Ryan Bader 12-0-0)

UFC 126, February 5, 2011, Las Vegas, USA

THE BIGGER PICTURE

If this were boxing, a pair of talent-rich future prospects like ‘Bones’ Jones and ‘Darth’ Bader would be kept away from each other, only meeting after they’d both won their own versions of fractured ‘world’ titles. Things are different in MMA. At 23, Jones is an impossibly explosive, unpredictable doomsday machine. Tall, strong, versatile and a gifted wrestler, Jones has rattled off a string of impressive performances since making his UFC debut (just four months after his first professional fight) as a largely untested 21-year-old with a 6-0 record. He’s now 11-1 having dominated Andre Gusmao, Stephan Bonnar, Jake O’ Brien, Matt Hamill (though he lost via a foolish disqualification), Brandon Vera and Vladimir Matyushenko. At 27, Ultimate Fighter 8 winner, Bader, is 12-0 as a professional and 5-0 with the UFC. Nothing like as spectacular, he wins fights with his power wrestling and ever-improving boxing. He’s been in control for most of his time inside the Octagon, stopping BJJ star Vinny Magalhaes and veteran Keith Jardine while recording decision wins over Carmelo Marerro, Eric Schafer and, in his biggest fight to date, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. It’s not hard to imagine at least one, if not both of them challenging for the UFC light heavyweight belt in the next two or three years, but the winner here will be that much closer to his title shot.

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN

Bader controls the turtle position well with a neat line in leg rides, holding the position to pound away rather than sink in the hooks. His punching style is far from beautiful. His wide open left hook habitually leads him to simultaneously drop his right hand, often culminating in a lurch forward with chin high when he follows up with a big right. But he does get his body weight behind his punch, having proved his knockout power against Magalhaes and Jardine. Those punches are often wildly overcommitted, throwing his whole body left and right or forward into the shot. In many ways the polar opposite of Bader, as both a striker and a wrestler Jones delivers his work with incredible flair. The heavily built Bader has an orthodox ‘grab ‘n’ smash’ wrestling style. He captures his straight forward high double leg takedown against an advancing opponent using a short, accurate level change without touching his knee to the floor, complemented by a strong drive and lift. Tall and lean, Jones sets up his takedowns by expertly taking balance then hitting the suplex, foot sweep or backstep.

0

No one has ever attempted a takedown on Ryan Bader (a two-time Division 1 All-American wrestler) in any of his UFC fights

90

Jon Jones has completed a staggering 90% of takedowns in his UFC bouts, including those against wrestlers like Matt Hamill

20

In his UFC career Jones has landed 20 more strikes than ‘Darth’ Bader despite seeing 11 UFC rounds compared to Bader’s 13

66

Two thirds (66%) of Ryan Bader's wins are stoppages despite being widely regarded as a wrestling-based fighter

100%

Jones has avoided all takedown attempts on him in the UFC