Issue 072
February 2011
FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts.
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical editor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.
Rich Franklin (28-5-0; 1NC) vs Forrest Griffin (17-6-0)
UFC 126, February 5, 2011, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
14
When Forrest Griffin steps inside the Octagon it’ll be the first time in 14 months and 15 days. Griffin last fought against Tito Ortiz at UFC 106 in November 2009.
3.261*
In the Octagon, Rich Franklin has attempted 1,509 strikes and Griffin has attempted 1,752, accumulating to a startling 3,261 limbs thrown in UFC combat.
11
Between them Griffin and Franklin have 11 grappling submission finishes, accounting for 24% of their wins, but neither man has ever been tapped out in MMA competition.
12
The pair have a common opponent in Anderson Silva, against who they managed a combined total of just over 12 minutes of action before being (T)KO’d.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Almost six years on from their starring roles in one of the most historically important nights in MMA history, longtime Zuffa favorites Franklin (28-5) and Griffin (17-6) are finally meeting in the Octagon. Way back in April 2005, Griffin’s epic slugfest with Stephan Bonnar delivered a fantastic TV rating, earned The Ultimate Fighter a second season and set the stage for the UFC’s runaway success. What most forget is that Franklin ‘main evented’ that show, beating down the sad remnants of MMA legend Ken Shamrock. Since then, both men have served as TUF coaches, headlined a combined 12 UFC events and held UFC championships at middleweight (Rich) and light heavyweight (Forrest).
Fighting at middleweight, light heavyweight and twice at a 195lb catchweight, Franklin is the ultimate company man, willing to fight more or less anyone, at any weight, on short notice. Ever-popular bestselling author Griffin is a massive light heavyweight (he’s significantly larger than the likes of Randy Couture and Mirko ‘Cro Cop’) and should enjoy some major physical advantages in this fight. Both have struggled with injuries and both have gone 2-2 in their last four fights. Rashad Evans was too fast and accurate for Griffin, and Anderson Silva simply made the former champion look like a bumbling amateur. Dan Henderson squeaked past Franklin and Vitor Belfort caught him with some heavy shots to the face, and the back of the head. On the plus side, Forrest decisioned first Quinton Jackson, in a superbly entertaining 2008 battle, and then Tito Ortiz in a fight nowhere near as close as the judges’ scorecards made it seem. Franklin outworked Wanderlei Silva and knocked out an over-eager Chuck Liddell, snatching victory in a fight where he suffered a broken arm (courtesy of a Liddell kick).
The 36-year-old Franklin and the five-years-younger Griffin have probably both booked their places in the UFC Hall of Fame somewhere in the future. Nothing that happens in this fight will change that. Younger and bigger, Griffin, whose intentionally self-deprecating persona often deflects attention from his status as a serious contender, is strongly favored to win. Franklin, good at everything, exceptional at nothing, was ahead of the game five years ago. The fighter of the future back then, he’s now more reliable than ever, solid from bell to bell, providing some great fights and continuing to enjoy his well-earned popularity. Griffin, though, is never more than two or three wins away from legitimate title contention. He should pick one of them up here.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Griffin has a Dutch style of kickboxing, throwing combinations in a turn-based fashion. He attacks, he soaks up the counter and goes back to work. He normally leads with his jab, throwing hand combinations and finishing on a kick – chopping upward with the left to body and head, or slamming down a leg kick with his right. Although his combination hitting-style is taken from a standard playbook, Griffin varies his work sufficiently and resists falling into a repetitive pattern. His willingness to take one to give one is famous. While he lacks tremendous knockout power, he plays for a war of attrition, and does so well: more thanks to his fearless attitude and excellent physical conditioning than punch resistance. While Griffin is never in a poor fight and always keeps his foot on the pedal, it’s not uncommon for his bouts to go the distance, albeit more often in his favor than not. With a well-balanced skill set, he strikes, clinches and grapples by the book. Although he’s best-known for exciting striking matches, and his bouts are comprised mostly of stand-up action, Griffin has had more success finishing his opponents via submission than via knockout. His ground game may be rarely seen, but his grappling skills in the gym are known to be of a high caliber.
12%
The muted percentage of Franklin fights that have gone to the judges
Franklin, like Griffin, made a name for himself thanks to excellent conditioning and physical imposition. Much of Franklin‘s success as a middleweight is owed to the significant size advantage he had over his opposition thanks to his dedicated weight-cutting regime. With his reach he could hit without being struck back, and with his mass he could crush opponents on the mat. As a light heavyweight that advantage has disappeared, and the shoe is on the other foot when faced with the substantial frame of Forrest Griffin. Southpaw Franklin carries his hands low with his elbows out, leading off with looping overhand right hooks and straight lefts. A consistent finisher over his 33-fight career, only five bouts have gone to the scorecards. Although he lets go the odd kick, it’s no secret that Franklin’s main weapon is his boxing. Of his victories, the overwhelming majority came via TKO or KO thanks to punches. Even from his ten recorded submission victories, five of them were in fact taps to punches.
Mark Hominick (19-8-0) vs George Roop (11-6-1)
UFC: Fight For The Troops 2, January 22, 2011, Fort Hood, Texas, USA
4
Mark Hominick has four years pro-fighting experience on George Roop, nine more scraps but only one more in the WEC/UFC.
67*
Hominick’s fast-fisted WEC 49 TKO win over solid striker Yves Jabouin saw ‘The Machine’ land 67 power strikes inside a time of 8:19.
16
Roop was the 16th and last pick on TUF's Team Nogueira vs Team Mir then won his first-round fight with a broken hand.
1
Until Roop KO'd ‘The Korean Zombie’ at WEC 51 he wasn’t known for his stand-up power, having one TKO win from 2008.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Both Hominick (19-8-0) and Roop (11-6-1) are moving up to the big leagues from the now-defunct WEC but are already familiar faces for some UFC fans. Tidy Canadian kickboxer Hominick is unbeaten inside the bigger UFC Octagon, going 2-0 as a lightweight in 2006 with wins over Yves Edwards and Jorge Gurgel. A TUF 8 contestant, the uncommonly lanky six-footer Roop went 1-2 at the same weight in 2008 and 2009. Since then, both have dropped down to featherweight (Roop even flirted with bantamweight) and enjoyed success under the WEC banner. Hominick, a natural 145lb’er all along, is riding a four-fight winning streak and might just as easily have been slotted into a featherweight title fight against Jose Aldo in January. Instead, Josh Grispi, who choked Hominick out in 2008, got the nod. Roop is coming off a memorable achievement – knocking out seemingly indestructible cartoon character and danger-to-himself ‘Korean Zombie’ Chan Sung Jung with a beautifully timed head kick. Hominick is slightly younger but more experienced and has been in with tougher, more varied competition during his career. He may struggle to get past Roop’s reach but should pick up the win.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Kickboxing specialist Hominick blocks and parries kicks and punches exceptionally well, allowing him to stand in the pocket and impose his own distance. This is the Canadian’s key to victory: he can’t afford to stand on the outside against the rangy Roop. Hominick’s counters are always varied, testing different angles, coming high and low with hands and kicks. While Hominick isn’t a prolific hitter, his busy style and variety guarantees an exciting and watchable bout. His consistent work-rate makes up for any shortcomings in raw power, turning out a good percentage of TKOs and submission finishes over the course of his career, with only five of his 27 matches having gone to the judges’ cards.
33.3%
Roop has won just one third of his six WEC/UFC fights
In stark contrast to Hominick’s highly polished kickboxing technique, the tall and gangly Roop is an awkward mover with a seemingly uncomfortable style. Appearances, in this case, are deceptive. Roop has a good understanding of his own range and can bring up his chopping high kick out of nowhere as opponents step back away from his hands. It was that very left kick that laid the Korean Zombie out on the canvas. Roop understands his elevation well too. He level changes and shoots surprisingly well for such a tall man, using the length of his legs to cover distance rapidly.
Miguel Torres (38-3-0) vs Antonio Banuelos (18-6-0)
UFC 126, February 5, 2011, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
44
Miguel Torres has a massive 41 fights on his record dating back ten years. Until August 2009 Torres went 38 matches with just a sole loss.
3
After just 389 seconds of WEC fighting Torres won the promotion’s bantamweight belt in '08. He defended it three times.
39
Though known for his heavy hands, Antonio Banuelos has a 39% strike finish-rate. The majority of his victories are by decision (56%).
14
Banuelos has fought for the WEC 14 times in his 24-fight career going way back to October 2002, 16 months after his pro debut.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Just a couple of years ago, mulleted Mexican-American wrecking-machine and WEC Bantamweight champion Torres (38-3-0, but with probably at least a dozen more officially unrecorded wins) was being touted as among the very best pound-for-pounders in the sport. Murderously aggressive with his fists and feet, brilliant off his back, Torres was still essentially training himself even as he tore through the division. Losses to Brian Bowles (a shocking TKO that cost him the title) and Joseph Benavidez (an almost as stunning guillotine choke) left many thinking Torres was the product of typically over-excitable Internet hype. But his most recent outing, a submission win over Charlie Valencia, was an indication he may be back on form. That’s bad news for fellow Hispanic hardman Banuelos (18-6-0). A good, entertaining fighter who contested a pair of epic brawls with title contender Scott Jorgenson (winning one and losing one), Banuelos was a semiregular for WEC for most of the promotion’s life. Much shorter, a little older and just not as talented or versatile as Torres, this could be a very difficult fight for Banuelos but he’s sure to go down swinging.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Standing 5’9” at 135lb, Torres lauds a height and reach advantage over his opponents. Sticking and moving behind his stiff, accurate jab, landing consistently and rarely eating the counter thanks to his fast retreating footwork. Torres hunches at the shoulders but stands tall at the hips seeming to offer a good takedown target. A well-regarded jiu-jitsu black belt, some among his opposition have been unwilling to go to the ground, forcing themselves to contend with his striking ability.
60%
Three fifths of Torres’s wins have been by submission
The short, stocky Banuelos is at the opposite end of the physical spectrum to Torres, and will have to work hard to fight on the inside without being lined up for a knee. Light on his feet, he does have good, active footwork but is sometimes unable or unwilling to commit standing, often preferring to wait and counterpunch in the mould of Chuck Liddell (who he trains alongside at The Pit). Given the huge discrepancy in reach with Torres, Banuelos’ standard tactics may need to be adjusted. On the mat Banuelos works hard to keep the pressure on, transitioning on the pin, pressing for the pass and striking constantly from top position.
*Figure courtesy of CompuStrike
