Issue 062
May 2010
Our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own very different ways.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
Quinton Jackson vs Rashad Evans
1, 2, 22
(Year, month, days) Length of time between Jackson’s last fight (vs Jardine) and the Evans fight.
4,8
Length of time Evans went undefeated.
17
Number of times Jackson fought for legendary Japanese promotion Pride.
2
Inch advantage Jackson has over Evans in both height (6’1” to 5’11”) and reach (76” to 74”).
Quinton Jackson vs Rashad Evans
UFC 114, May 29, 2010,
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
The Bigger Picture
Fighting for the first time in over a year, former UFC light heavyweight champion ‘Rampage’ Jackson (30-7) finally gets the chance to fulfill all the promises and threats he made to fellow former titleholder Evans (14-1-1) in 2009.
Moments after beating the difficult Keith Jardine in March 2009, Jackson was confronted by Jardine’s friend and teammate Rashad for possibly the most memorable Octagon face-off ever. Then, once some initial confusion over when they would actually fight was cleared up, Jackson and Evans were confirmed as opposing coaches for The Ultimate Fighter 10. As expected, Rampage and Rashad managed to get involved in several childish (yet hilarious) arguments during the series, perfectly setting the stage for their December 2009 showdown in Jackson’s hometown of Memphis, Tennessee.
But Jackson’s role as iconic badass B.A. Baracus in the film revival of The A-Team got in the way. Jackson’s filming schedule simply wouldn’t allow sufficient training time and the fight was called off indefinitely. Apparently aggrieved by UFC President Dana White’s ill-informed bashing of The A-Team as some kind of low rent B-movie and what he bizarrely deemed Zuffa’s lack of respect for him, ‘Rampage’ flipped his lid and announced his retirement last September, only to climb down a few months later.
It doesn’t take a genius to realize that such a long layoff, publicly bickering about his contract and making movies is hardly the best preparation for a fighter as good as Evans, and Jackson’s comments about this being his last UFC fight (coupled with his being so very obviously overweight as recently as February) don’t bode well for his chances either. Longtime followers of Jackson’s career may note some interesting parallels with his drastic plunge in form when, during 2005, he was at odds with then-employers Pride FC over the way he felt they treated him.
While Jackson has been making news for everything except his fighting exploits, Evans made his return to action at UFC 108 in January. Showcasing his little-seen wrestling ability, Evans earned a clear (albeit dull) decision win over the dangerous Thiago Silva. Even with such a safety-first game plan, Evans was caught and hurt by Silva in the third round and, if the Brazilian had a little more stamina and brainpower, he may have been able to follow up and beat Evans.
Evans picked up the all-important win after his crushing May 2009 title loss KO to Lyoto Machida, but he appeared to lack confidence and the same spark that saw him flatten Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin. Clearly the undersized Rashad has his weaknesses, but at least he actually seems focused on fighting and winning. Even with perfect preparation, Rampage just isn’t as quick as Evans.
Too often predictable, Jackson tends to plod forward, paying little attention to such piffling matters as footwork and defending against leg kicks. Machida destroyed Evans by being faster and more elusive – Jackson will be neither and will instead need to rely on his superior size and strength. Both men are very effective wrestlers, but given their very real antipathy, they are most likely to stand and try to knock their opponent out. That could be a very unwise strategy for a distracted, disinterested Jackson if his thoughts are already on his post-UFC career.
Technical Breakdown
While Rashad has always been one of the smaller and quicker light heavyweights, Rampage is literally at the other end of the scale on both counts. Rampage is a big light heavyweight and a year off from fighting will no doubt have pushed his weight up higher than usual.
Both men are boxer-wrestlers – neither has particularly polished groundwork, so expect this fight to take place almost exclusively on the feet. We haven’t seen Rampage really push for a takedown since his days in Pride, thanks to his excellent boxing ability. Only two fighters have really managed to crack Quinton’s defense and iron chin, and that was a prime Wanderlei Silva all the way back in 2003 and 2004, and Shogun in 2005. Jackson’s tight cover, head movement and resilience make him a dangerous man to stand in front of.
Against Griffin and Liddell, Rashad’s strategy was clear – weather the initial storm and utilize his superior speed in the second rounds. Against Rampage, he’s going to have a lot of weathering to do – Jackson is one of the hardest punchers in the 205lb division. Rashad’s quick feet may keep him out of danger but if he wants to connect on Rampage he’ll have to move into range to engage – although his exceptional reflexes and head movement make him a tricky target.
In terms of wrestling credentials, Evans’ pedigree as one of his state’s top university wrestlers puts him light years ahead of Jackson, who quit in junior college. Evans uses his wrestling far more than Jackson, especially against fighters who put him under pressure. He scored a total of eight takedowns against dangerous striker Thiago Silva, though the only men who have managed to take Jackson down in the last five years are Olympians Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland.
Jackson moved away from his wrestling roots some time ago and reinvented himself as a striker during his Pride career. He hasn’t had a great deal of success with his takedowns in a fight since his bout with Matt Lindland in 2006, averaging only two or three takedown attempts per fight over the last few years.
Forrest Griffin vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
UFC 114, May 29, 2010,
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Breakdown by the Numbers
Forrest Griffin vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
7-6
Griffin has 7 submissions on his record compared to Minotoro’s 6.
'06
Minotoro has been training alongside Anderson Silva since 2006.
1
Number of punches Forrest Griffin landed on Anderson Silva before being knocked out.
5
Combined number of UFC bonuses both men have won (Griffin 4, Minotoro 1).
61%
of fights Nogueira has finished by either (T)KO or submission.
The Bigger Picture
For so long in the shadow of his twin brother Rodrigo, the 33-year-old Nogueira made a splash in his UFC debut last November, hammering Luiz Cane to defeat in just 116 seconds. ‘Minotoro’ made Cane look like a rank amateur, utterly outclassing him with some of the neatest boxing seen in the Octagon in a long time. He’s also exceptionally good on the mat, very experienced, and tougher than a leather bag full of nails. Long a favorite of hardcore fans, the well-traveled Nogueira’s performance was met with plenty of over-excitement and hyperbole. If he can follow it up with a win, over inconsistent oddball and former UFC light heavyweight champion Griffin, then he should be jostling for title contention after just two UFC outings.
Griffin’s limb-flailing attack looks ripe for exploitation by a more educated puncher such as Nogueira, but The Ultimate Fighter 1 winner is more than just a boneheaded brawler, as he demonstrated in his wins over Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua, Quinton Jackson and, most recently, Tito Ortiz. A huge 205lb fighter, Griffin is talented and determined enough to win, but, even if he doesn’t, his past exploits ensure his Zuffa future will be secure for a long time to come.
Technical Analysis
A lanky 6’3”, at first glance Forrest Griffin appears far bigger than Minotoro, but in reality he only has an inch on the Brazilian, who stands 6’2”. Griffin will benefit from a two-inch reach advantage though, and of course he has those long, long legs which make such great weapons when delivering leg kicks. Both men are adept strikers but stylistically are very, very different. Griffin’s tall Muay Thai stance is in direct contrast to Minotoro’s boxing base. Nogueira throws punches from many different angles, moves well and cuts corners like any good boxer. Griffin is very much on rails, moving straight in or out and rarely circling away.
Minotoro has proved he’s got fast, concussive hands, while Griffin’s always been the kind of fighter who will take one to give one. He should be extremely wary of attempting this against Nogueira, who has the very real ability to put him to sleep with one shot.
On the mat the match is actually more even – Griffin’s excellent jiu-jitsu should be more than enough to allow him to hang with the Brazilian, who has never had the same reputation on the mat as his heavyweight twin.
Michael Bisping vs Dan Miller
UFC 114, May 29, 2010,
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Breakdown by the Numbers
Michael Bisping vs Dan Miller
7
Bisping has faced opponents representing seven different countries.
1,8
(Year, months) Length of time Bisping had been fighting as a pro before he was chosen for TUF3.
7
Number of fights Miller has won by submission.
5
Different submission victories Miller can claim (Armbar, triangle choke, rear naked choke, guillotine choke and kneebar).
88%
of fights Bisping has won by either (T)KO or submission.
The Bigger Picture
Coming off a close decision loss to Wanderlei Silva, Bisping is 1-2 in his last three fights although losing to Silva and Dan Henderson (with a career-best battering of Denis Kang sandwiched in-between) is hardly a disgrace. Still, he’s never really fulfilled the admittedly sky-high expectations built up with his TUF 3 triumph back in 2006. Bisping isn’t a concussive puncher, but he is generally an elusive, controlled and neat striker with a real finishing instinct. He’s also a much-underrated wrestler, but opponent Miller is a very talented, dangerous grappler.
Former IFL middleweight champion Miller seems to have picked up the unfortunate habit of losing thoroughly boring fights. A year ago Chael Sonnen simply bullied him, and Demian Maia outclassed him on the feet in February. Miller may be on Zuffa’s endangered species list, and a loss here (surely the likeliest outcome) would be the final straw. Bisping is rarely in a boring fight and he should make this one entertaining along the way to picking up a much-needed, and decisive, victory.
Technical Analysis
Though both Bisping and Miller are extremely well-rounded fighters, on paper this is a classic clash of styles. Bisping is the energetic striker, while Miller is the tough grappler. Bisping has had his fair share of fights against grapplers, having proved his worth against a number of wrestlers and BJJ black belts. His anti-wrestling and ground ‘n pound have been the downfall of more than a couple of dangerous submission artists, and his underrated submission skills generally keep him out of trouble on the canvas.
A former IFL champ, Miller’s wrestling and jiu-jitsu background made him one of the UFC’s middleweights to watch in 2010, but a lackluster decision loss to Demian Maia (which saw the Brazilian soundly out-strike a rather confused-looking Miller) proved maybe he’s not as well rounded as he could be. If Miller struggled with a striker as inconsistent as the relative novice Maia, he may have too much to deal with in Bisping, an unorthodox striker with fast hands and a killer left leg.
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