Issue 060
March 2010
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
Breakdown by the Numbers
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez
22
Age Nogueira made his MMA debut (in 1999)
24
Age Velasquez made his MMA debut (in 2006)
38.42
Total time (minutes and seconds) of Velasquez’s entire MMA career
43.52
Total time (minutes and seconds) Minotauro has spent in the ring with Fedor Emelianenko (across 3 fights)
62.5%
of Nogueira’s victories are by way of submission
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez
UFC 110, February 21, 2010,
Sydney, Australia
The Bigger Picture
This fascinating heavyweight clash pits one of the heavyweight division’s most experienced campaigners against possibly it’s most ferocious young fighter. This potential changing of the guard could be one of the most important heavyweight fights of 2010.
Originally scheduled for January, Nogueira’s latest debilitating staph infection pushed the fight back a few weeks. The former RINGS King of Kings, Pride FC and UFC interim champion appears to have learned from his UFC 92 loss in December 2008 to Frank Mir. Heading into that fight the clear favorite, ‘Minotauro’ fought like a lumbering zombie, his awful performance directly related to a knee injury and serious staph infection. Healthier and reinvigorated, Nogueira bounced back at UFC 102 with an excellent performance in his clear decision win over living legend Randy Couture. Clearly, even after all his wars, a fit and healthy Nogueira remains one of the sport’s better big men.
Now 32-5-1, the 33-year-old Brazilian is entering the 12th year of his professional career while Velasquez has a spotless (but brief) record of 7-0 and is six years younger. Nogueira has an immense edge in experience but two-time All American college wrestler Velasquez is a frightening proposition for any fighter. True, some serious questions have been raised by his last two fights, but Velasquez has entered some dominating performances with just one opponent lasting longer than eight minutes. Velasquez has incredible conditioning, superb wrestling and more than enough aggression to be one of the sport’s greatest fighters. However, as he’s stepped up to face better fighters, his chin has appeared wobbly and his power punching more than a little suspect.
At UFC 99, Velasquez couldn’t stop Cheick Kongo despite landing approximately 86 million strikes on the ground and several times he was caught (and heavily rocked) by punches on his feet. At UFC 104, Velasquez handed out a serious beating to the durable Ben Rothwell but never hurt him significantly. The second-round stoppage was a controversial one and Rothwell protested bitterly, but from the opening seconds the outcome was never really in doubt. It appeared Cain could have spent three weeks taking Rothwell down and hitting him, never mind three rounds. Still, if Velasquez lacks power and is prone to rushing headlong at his opponent, that could cost him against a fighter as near-mythically iron-chinned, as skilled and as patient as Nogueira.
Can Nogueira withstand Cain’s blurring onslaught and catch him with punches or a submission on the ground? No one has yet even threatened Velasquez on the mat, but he’s never faced anyone with the skill or experience of Nogueira. The veteran has spent over 43 minutes in the ring with Fedor Emelianenko alone, while Velasquez’s entire professional career has gone less than 40 minutes. Aside from that impressive win over the aged Couture, Nogueira’s UFC victories have hardly been flawless. Old foe Heath Herring was a few seconds (and a few brain cells) away from finishing him at UFC 73 and the now largely discredited Tim Sylvia gave Nogueira some serious problems in their UFC 81 fight before succumbing to a third-round submission. Clearly, the Nogueira who fought Mir was hampered by injury and illness but still, the 2009 / 2010 version of the battle-worn Brazilian is nothing like as effective as in his 2001–2004 heyday. So long as Velasquez is a little less impetuous he should grind out a decision or late stoppage win.
Technical Breakdown
Velasquez has been steadily adding stand-up striking skills to his strong wrestling and powerful, positional ground-game, looking better than ever in his last outing against Ben Rothwell. Nogueira is a wholly different animal, possessing superior boxing and jiu-jitsu. Nogueira’s striking style is modeled very much on the Olympic-style of amateur boxing, and is prey to many of the flaws that this brings along with it. He is an uncomfortable kicker, hindered by his long stance and internally rotated lead leg, typical of the amateur-boxing style. That long stance and lead foot position also renders him unable to check or skip away from kicks easily. On the plus side, he does work well behind his jab and strings together good combinations. Together with good head movement and respectable punching power, Nogueira is one of the best boxers in the heavyweight division. In spite of Velasquez’s notable improvements in this area, Nogueira should still have the edge when trading hands.
Although Minotauro has steadily improved his wrestling skills over the years, adding a good repertoire of upper body throws to his once lackluster leg tackles, he is no match in terms of pure wrestling for the accomplished Velasquez. Ability in the realm of offensive wrestling does not necessarily imply good defensive wrestling, and, with the added dimension that striking brings, answering the question of ‘who scores the takedown’ is pure conjecture.
Velasquez’s pins and ‘no hooks’ back control is formidable, and he frees himself up sufficiently to deliver good ground ‘n pound without losing control of his opponent. Passing Nogueira’s guard poses a major challenge for him though, and he has more chance of achieving a dominant position by means of a direct takedown than a pass.
Safe in the knowledge that his jiu-jitsu is unrivaled among the overwhelming majority of heavyweights, Nogueira is often content to concede the takedown or abandon his own efforts if he is allowed to go to his guard, from where he launches sweeps and submissions with aplomb. Nogueira’s ability to maintain focus under duress is legendary, the evidence of which he bears all over his face. Even with Velasquez’s quality of ground ‘n pound, stopping Minotauro with strikes on the floor would be an amazing feat.
Breakdown by the Numbers
Keith Jardine vs Ryan Bader
7,8
7 years, 8 months. Age difference between Jardine (34) and Bader (26)
4
Number of fights Jardine has lost in the first round.
6
Number of fights Bader has won in the first round.
14
Combined number of times Jardine (11) and Bader (3) have fought in the Octagon.
70%
of fights Bader has finished by either submission or TKO
Keith Jardine vs Ryan Bader
UFC 110, February 21, 2010,
Sydney, Australia
The Bigger Picture
Velasquez’s college wrestling teammate, Bader (unbeaten in MMA at 10-0), takes a major step up in competition as he faces the talented, unorthodox, experienced and woefully inconsistent Jardine (14-6-1). Both are former TUF contestants, with Jardine an afterthought in season two and Bader the 205lb winner of season eight. A notoriously slow starter, Jardine has been KOd four times inside two minutes, while ‘Darth’ Bader has yet to set the world on fire, despite his 3-0 UFC record.
He blasted boxing-averse Vinny Maghalaes to defeat in just over two minutes but looked pedestrian at times in his subsequent decision wins over Carmelo Marrero and Eric Schafer. However, the 26-year-old Bader dominated both fights on the scorecards, is very strong and athletic, a great wrestler, a decent puncher and seems like an intelligent, ever-improving fighter – not to mention a star in the making.
The 34-year-old Jardine has gone 1-3 since the start of 2008, his sole win coming by split decision over Brandon Vera. In that time, he’s lost to Wanderlei Silva, Quinton Jackson (in a close fight) and Thiago Silva. Jardine also holds wins over Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin. Despite Jardine’s track record of (sometime) success, this is Bader’s big chance to push himself into the big time. Look for him to take it in decisive fashion.
Technical Analysis
Jardine’s bizarre stance and guard make for uncomfortable viewing. With his elbows out wide and wrists waving up and down, he defies the conventions of boxing and Muay Thai. For the opposition this clearly makes his intentions difficult to read, and has baffled some of the more skillful strikers he has faced, such as Brandon Vera. The by-product of Jardine’s unconventional style is inevitably inconsistency in his performance; at times evasive and seemingly impossible to catch, at others, throwing himself face-first into the oncoming punch.
Although he rarely initiates a ground battle, Jardine has a surprisingly sophisticated ground game, refusing to be passive and working well from a sitting guard, sweeping and escaping back to his feet. On the feet, Bader sticks to the basics and delivers his limited repertoire of strikes with accuracy and power. Bader tends to shoot from in close, ducking punches and capturing the hips for a high double leg, rather than shooting low from the outside, giving him a high success rate on the takedowns he attempts.
Typical of an accomplished wrestler, Bader’s ground game is based around riding the top positions and firing in short elbows and big punches. He varies his strikes and works the angles well, maintaining a steady pressure and returning his opponent to the mat quickly as they attempt to escape back to their feet.
Breakdown by the Numbers
Stephan Bonnar vs Krzysztof Soszynski
7
Number of fights Bonnar had on his resume before joining the ranks of the UFC
11
Though Bonnar started fighting in 2001, Soszynski has 11 more fights to his name than Bonnar
11,7
Last time Bonnar had a win in the Octagon (UFC 77, Nov 2007)
95k
Bonus money Soszynski has won for his two Submission of the Night honors
88.3%
of fights Soszynski has won by TKO or submission.
Stephan Bonnar vs Krzysztof Soszynski
UFC 110, February 21, 2010,
Sydney, Australia
The Bigger Picture
Few fighters seem as fondly looked on by UFC management as Bonnar. One half of the epic brawl that put The Ultimate Fighter 1 finale into the history books, Bonnar’s career has often floundered thanks to injuries, a lengthy steroid suspension and general inconsistency. Coming off a pair of decision losses (to light heavyweight prodigy Jon Jones and aged warhorse Mark Coleman) even the charmed Bonnar may need a win here to maintain his position on the UFC roster.
A good fighter, though clearly nothing special, Bonnar faces former pro wrestler and TUF 8 contestant Soszynski in what could be a diverting fight that has very few ramifications for the upper echelons of the 205lb division. Willing to step in at short notice and always ready for action, the kimura-happy ‘Polish Experiment’ is a company regular entering his fifth UFC fight in 15 months. Both can be entertaining, inside and outside the Octagon, and this should be a fun scrap. Bonnar is the better grappler but Soszynski may be the more well-rounded competitor. Whoever wins, it should be fun.
Technical Analysis
With a background in taekwondo, Bonnar complements a fairly orthodox kickboxing style with occasional spinning back kicks and axe kicks. Although he is happy to stand and exchange, boldly taking one to give one, he is most effective at range, holding his opponent on the end of his considerable reach. Southpaw Soszynski looks awkward as he delivers his punches from his heavily muscled, almost hunchbacked shoulders. As he throws straights he pulls his head away, dangerously exposing his chin. In spite of the obvious flaws in his technique, he manages to be effective with his strikes as he comes forward with power and aggression. Neither man is the fastest in the division, so who wins the striking battle will be determined by who can effectively control the distance.
It’s rare to see Bonnar press for a takedown, and being tall and lanky he is certainly not a natural shooter. It’s more common to see him concede the takedown as he is apt to over extend while attempting to keep the opponent on the end of his work, leaving himself over-committed should they find their way inside. Unsurprising given his build, Soszynski is a definite top-player, favoring side control and always looking to lock up his trademark kimura.
Comfortable from his guard, Bonnar has a ‘rice and beans’ style of jiu-jitsu, preferring to work for basic kimuras and triangle chokes, sometimes employing fairly naïve set-ups for a high-level fighter, attempting to throw up triangles and armbars without any posture control. Against the top-heavy powerhouse of Soszynski, such an approach is inviting disaster.
