Issue 058
Our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own different ways: Rashad Evans vs Thiago Silva; Gabriel Gonzaga vs Junior Dos Santos; and Shinya Aoki vs Tatsuta Kawajiri.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
Rashad Evans (13-1-1) vs. Thiago Silva (14-1-0 )
UFC 108, January 2, 2010, MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
0
Number of fights Rashad has finished inside the first round since 2004.
80
Rashad’s victory rate in the UFC Octagon (8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss).
13
Number of fights both men had won before losing to Lyoto Machida by KO.
0
Number of fights both men had lost before losing to Lyoto Machida by KO – both were undefeated!
THE BIGGER PICTURE
While bitter rival Quinton Jackson is off sporting an iconic Mohawk and pitying fools on the set of the forthcoming A-Team movie, former UFC light heavyweight champion Evans will be preparing for a very dangerous fight with Brazilian thrashing machine Silva. Two of the more talented and successful 205lb fighters in the world, Silva and Evans both suffered 2009 KO defeats to Lyoto Machida, despite supposedly having stand-up striking styles that would cause serious problems for the karate-infused ‘Dragon’.
Silva’s overwhelming fury and pressure did him little good at UFC 94, where Machida floored him twice before knocking him out with just a second remaining in the opening round. Thought to be the only light heavyweight who could match Machida for hand speed and elusiveness, Evans’ UFC 98 title defense was a disaster. After a predictably cautious start by both men, Machida started landing with kick and punch combinations while Evans flailed around after the seemingly un-hittable challenger. Dominating from start to finish, Machida finished Evans and took the title with a brutal assault late in the second round.
If a need to put that defeat behind him and quickly get back into title contention weren’t enough motivation for Evans, then Silva’s 95-second annihilation of close friend and teammate Keith Jardine at UFC 102 should have him seeking revenge. Evans will surely take this fight very, very seriously. After a patient opening minute or so, Silva floored Jardine with a perfect counter left hook and then pounced with a pair of chillingly powerful punches on the ground that emphatically ended the fight and upped his record to 14-1.
That performance (and Silva’s other trademark stoppage wins over Houston Alexander and Antonio Mendes, both mounted and smashed to pieces) aren’t necessarily indicative of what might happen when Silva takes on as skilled a fighter as Rashad, but they do serve as graphic reminders of just how destructive the Brazilian can be.
A merciless and aggressive fighter, Silva is nonetheless more patient and technically aware than his background as a Chute Boxe brawler would suggest. He’s also a BJJ black belt with a little-mentioned but very effective ground game. Training these days with the American Top Team, the Sao Paulo-born Silva is just 27 and can boast ten first-round wins in his four-year career as a professional fighter.
A very gifted wrestler (and an explosive athlete), 31-year-old Evans’ success at 205lb is all the more impressive considering he’d be far better off if the sport had a regular 195lb weight class. Consistently the smaller man, he uses his speed and technique (both on his feet and on the mat) to outclass bigger, stronger men.
A long-time student of Greg Jackson and training partner of peerless welterweight champion Georges St Pierre, Evans has rattled off some very impressive UFC wins and put together a 13-1-1 overall MMA record. His unforgettable TUF 2 finale win over the gigantic Brad Imes in 2005 was followed with four utterly dominant wins until he faced Tito Ortiz at UFC 73. A very flat performance from Evans saw him walk away with a somewhat lucky draw.
Decisioning Michael Bisping in a close fight at UFC 78, Evans next faced Chuck Liddell at UFC 88. Just 19% of the text-voting pay-per-view audience picked Rashad to win, and few of them would likely have picked him to win via 2008’s most memorable chin-shattering one-punch knockout. Then, just over three months later, Evans lifted the title at UFC 92 with one of the greatest performances of his career. Ground ‘n pounding Forrest Griffin to defeat, Evans put on a superb show, and on similar form he should outclass and finish even a fighter as dangerous as Silva.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Thiago Silva has no reverse gear, preferring always to fight going forwards. He fights very much in straight lines, walking forward square on and with a high elevation. He throws heavy, chopping left kicks from the outside and then stands in close throwing hook, uppercut and straight-punch combinations.
93%
Rate of fights Silva has finished inside the distance
Where Silva thrives on pressuring and physically overwhelming his opposition, Rashad (cutting a relatively smaller 205lb figure) has far more finesse and utilizes fast footwork to get in and out of range or create angles. Evans has a well-educated wrestling style perfect for MMA. To score his takedowns, he uses maximum leverage over brute strength.
Rashad has a knack of looking very active, moving his hands, head and feet, without actually making any contact with his opponent. Being far more content to let minutes of the fight slide by without doing anything decisive, Evans will surely look to provoke the less-patient Silva into stepping within his range. Rashad hangs his left hand low, throwing his jab upwards from the hip or pawing with an open palm, looking to parry or misdirect with the left before launching his powerful right hand.
Gabriel Gonzaga (11-4-0) vs. Junior Dos Santos (9-1-0)
UFC 108, January 2, 2010, MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
4-8-8
4 years, 8 months and 8 days. Age difference between Gonzaga (30) and Dos Santos (25).
3
Inches height difference in the pair (Dos Santos is 6’4”, Gonzaga 6’1”).
7
Number of contests Gonzaga has finished inside the distance in the UFC (five TKOs, two submissions).
3
Time between Gonzaga’s win over Cro Cop (4.51 of rd1) and Dos Santos’ (2.00 of rd3).
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Huge, talented and very experienced, Gonzaga seems to have been in a hurry of late. His last four fights (where he’s gone 3-1) have all ended inside three minutes. Aside from his bludgeoning UFC 96 loss to Shane Carwin (Gonzaga floored him quickly and broke his nose but ran into a right hand), the US-based Brazilian has hardly been facing the toughest of opposition. Massive, limited wrestlers have been the order of the day so his fight with rising star Dos Santos will be a serious, and potentially painful, change of pace.
Riding a four-fight winning streak and 3-0 in the UFC, Dos Santos burst onto the scene with an 81-second destruction of Fabricio Werdum (a man who incidentally holds two TKO wins over Gonzaga). A tall, lean, efficient and heavy-handed striker, Dos Santos followed up the Werdum win with a first-round demolition of Stefan Struve and a dismantling of the once-feared Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 103 in September. The 25-year-old Dos Santos will be younger, taller, faster and lighter, and, while both men have genuine knockout power, Dos Santos is clearly the faster of the two. This could be another quick, though not necessarily enjoyable, evening for Gonzaga while an impressive win by Dos Santos could put him closer to a UFC heavyweight title shot.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Dos Santos is not the fastest heavyweight, but he certainly makes up for it in power, throwing his considerable body weight behind his limited but well-practiced repertoire of straights, hooks, uppercuts and the occasional leg kick. He rarely deviates from the basics, nor ups his tempo until victory is absolutely assured; wisely avoiding punching himself out.
100%
Rate of fights both men have finished inside the distance
Jiu-jitsu world champion Gonzaga plays a heavy top game, passing guard with ease and smothering his opposition with pins and well-chosen ground ‘n pound. His striking is equally heavy, with powerful leg kicks and right hands. On the mat Gonzaga boasts better credentials, but Dos Santos cuts a colossal figure. Handling his size, both when grappling and at range, is Gonzaga’s outstanding challenge.
Shinya Aoki (22-4-0) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (25-5-2)
Dynamite!!, December 31, 2009, Saitama Super Arena, Tokyo
5-1
5 years 1 day. Age difference between Kawajiri (31) and Aoki (26).
75
Percentage of Aoki’s losses by TKO (3 out of 4).
11
Number of fights Kawajiri has won by TKO.
4
Inches height difference between Aoki (5’11”) and Kawajiri (5’7”).
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Somewhat fragile though exceptionally slick on the mat and the undisputed master of garish ring-attire, Aoki looks to make a successful first defense of his Dream lightweight title against the fearsome ‘Crusher’. Both men are products of the talent-rich Shooto promotion (where they each held title belts) but they are very, very different fighters. While Aoki almost totally depends on his submission skills, Kawajiri is far happier taking people down and then punching their faces through the mat.
Currently two of Japan’s most popular native fighters, both are coming off victories in October. Aoki lifted the title after a desperately late armbar in his disappointing rubber match with Joachim Hansen, while Kawajiri obliterated the unfortunate Melchor Manibusan on the same night. With similar records (Kawajiri is 25-5-2 and Aoki 22-4-0) they are two of the sport’s most talented, exciting and experienced lightweight fighters, and their fight looks to be one of the highlights of Japan’s traditional New Year’s Eve fighting spectacular. As usual with Aoki, this looks likely to be either another memorable tapout finish (like his two wins over Hansen) or a gruesome beating (as in his 2008 loss to the Norwegian).
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Kawajiri has coupled his recent improvements in his kickboxing skill with his superb counter wrestling. His reaction times are fast and his base remains solid while he lets his strikes go, giving him one of the best sprawls in the business. Aoki is a high-caliber judoka and tremendously adept at trips, sweeps and upper body tosses, but is not the greatest shooter. Expect him to look for a high tie-up before taking the fight to the mat.
59%
13, or 59%, of Aoki’s wins were by submission
Favoring his left kick toward the inside leg and body, Kawajiri backs up his kicking with respectable punching power. Aoki likewise favors his left leg, but does not have the same confidence in his hands. The contrast of styles should be deeply evident on the mat, with Kawajiri as a confirmed top player with powerful ground ‘n pound and stubborn submission defense, and Aoki showcasing his hyper-flexible bottom game and creative submission attacks.
