Issue 047
March 2009
Our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own different ways.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations. Finally, Rami Genauer of Fightmetric.com provides us with some telling figures from past fights.
Diego Sanchez (19-2-0 ) vs Joe Stevenson (29-9-0)
UFC 95, February 21st 2009, O2 Arena, London
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
10
Number of fights Sanchez has finished inside the first round.
16
Age at which Joe Stevenson began fighting professionally.
3
3 months: length of suspension Sanchez received for testing positive for marijuana in 2006.
4-6
4 years 6 months: time Diego Sanchez went unbeaten in his MMA career.
Andrew Garvey
Young but very experienced, former UFC lightweight title challenger Stevenson is a quality fighter. So is fellow TUF winner Sanchez. This fight, Sanchez’ first at lightweight, is an intriguing match-up that promises some fast, high-level grappling and serious entertainment. But by the UFC’s own high standards, this is no main event. As the headline attraction of a Spike TV midweek Fight Night special in a smaller arena, this would be fine. But as the main attraction of a major, ‘numbered’ UFC event on a Saturday night in the cavernous O2 Arena, this is a terribly weak main event featuring good fighters who severely lack genuine star quality. What makes this particularly galling is that UK fans are used to talent-laden shows and ‘proper’ main events featuring title fights and major, marketable stars.
44%
Percentage of career fights Joe Stevenson has won by submission
Sanchez simply isn’t a truly big, or marketable fight. How significant is it in the big picture? Not very. For the fighters themselves, this is of course very important, but neither will be troubling the upper echelon of the talent-rich lightweight division anytime soon. Both have racked up some good wins but even an utterly dominant victory here would still leave either man well adrift of the title picture.
Stevenson’s title fight with Penn was one of last year’s truly memorable massacres. Pouring with blood, choked out and breaking down in tears, Stevenson was destroyed by the ultra-talented Hawaiian. ‘Daddy’ came back with a submission win over Gleison Tibau, using the guillotine choke he’s also beaten Melvin Guillard and Dokonjonosuke Mishima with, but his most recent outing was just as one-sided as the Penn destruction. A slicker, faster (and undoubtedly better fighter) Kenny Florian battered Stevenson with punches on the ground before ending it with a first round rear naked choke.
Back in 2006, Sanchez looked like a serious welterweight title contender, scoring a Fight of the Year decision win over Karo Parisyan and a fast, exciting annihilation of Joe Riggs. Then Sanchez had his appallingly anti-climactic grudge fight with Josh Koscheck where almost nothing actually happened. Koscheck exposed Sanchez as a fighter who needs to dominate and bully his opponents and finds it exceptionally hard to compete when unable to set the pace.
Sanchez’s next fight was far more satisfying, though again Diego dropped a very clear decision to Jon Fitch. Sanchez at least got to try some submissions, but Fitch blocked everything with ease and battered him to an unarguable defeat. 2008 saw Sanchez rebound, hammering well-regarded Scandinavian David Bielkheden and smashing Luigi Fioravanti in a wild three-round brawl. That fight saw Diego back to his frenetically-aggressive best, finishing Fioravanti with a huge kick to the head, a follow-up knee and some wild punches on the ground for an electrifying TKO finish.
Stevenson is a good wrestler, has been fighting professionally for almost a decade and is far more experienced (and likely more comfortable) at 155lb. A physically strong, technically sound submission artist, Stevenson has shown serious weaknesses when taking on the division’s elite fighters, and it’s very questionable if he’ll be challenging for the UFC lightweight belt ever again. Sanchez is inventively aggressive, a wildly unorthodox striker willing to flail every available limb at his opponents and has some excellent submission skills. An unpredictably odd fish, Sanchez is hardly the dependable pro Stevenson has been for several years, but he may be more naturally talented. That may spell the difference in a fight that should, from bell to bell, be a lot of fun.
Peter Irving
This bout, on paper at least, promises to be an intensely close match. Both fighters are consistently well-conditioned, both have excellent wrestling skills, a great submission game, and have in recent years vastly improved their boxing. Not only do their skill sets appear even, but their careers too have run parallel. Both Stevenson and Sanchez have had long and promising winning streaks only to have their top contender status derailed, (in the lightweight and welterweight divisions respectively) snatched away by two defeats. Joe ‘Daddy’ falling foul of two rear naked chokes after suffering fairly one-sided beatings from the 155lb division’s top jiu-jitsu fighters BJ Penn and Kenny Florian, and Diego being decisioned by Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, the welterweight division’s most decorated wrestlers.
In spite of the fact that Stevenson is the smaller man, he has fared well against very credible opposition as a welterweight and should have little trouble dealing with Sanchez’s size from a strength perspective. Where it will count is range, especially given Diego’s southpaw stance and somewhat awkward boxing style. Conversely, Stevenson’s lower base will give greater difficulty should Sanchez want to shoot low to take the fight to the mat.
Question marks still hang over how Diego will fare after cutting to 155lb. He has never appeared ripped to the bone, and his style was never predicated on explosive power, but pure technique instead. In addition to his proven conditioning and ability to pace himself over three rounds, he should cope well. Diego, in spite of his defeats, has still never been stopped, only out-pointed and frustrated rather than dominated. Stevenson, on the other hand, has lost brutally and been finished. How he will cope mentally following those defeats is critical should he find himself taking punishment or being out-positioned by Sanchez, and if there is another man out there capable of slapping another choke on Stevenson, it has got to be ‘the Nightmare’.
Dan Hardy ( 22-6-0) vs Rory Markham (16-4-0;1NC)
UFC 95, February 21st 2009, O2 Arena, London
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
6
Age at which Dan Hardy started training in martial arts.
3
Number of career losses in which Hardy has been stopped (all via submission).
7
Longest number of fights Markham has remained undefeated.
100
Percentage of Markham’s losses that have come via TKO.
Andrew Garvey
UFC 95 may lack a genuine main event, but there are plenty of talented fighters on show and the most consistently entertaining of these is Nottingham’s Dan Hardy. An aggressive, creative striker equally happy throwing fists, elbows, knees or kicks, the 26-year-old impressed in his UFC debut with a decision win over Japanese veteran Akihiro Gono. Here he faces former IFL regular Markham in a fight that promises plenty of stand-up action. Hardy and Markham have plenty in common. They are the same age, have traditional martial arts backgrounds, both are 1-0 in UFC competition and both seem incapable of boring performances.
50%
Percentage of Hardy’s 20 wins that have ended by (T)KO
Markham has serious power but despite his superb high kick KO of Brodie Farber in his UFC debut is far more of a boxer than a free-form striker like Hardy. The Miletich-schooled American is hardly elusive, and at times his chin has looked a little suspect, most recently in a surprising TKO loss to the unheralded Brett Cooper in December 2007. Leaving aside his very controversial DQ loss to Yoshiyuki Yoshida in Japan, Hardy has won nine straight fights and has never been stopped. He’s lost a few by submission but his ever-improving BJJ under instructor Eddie Bravo and both men’s aggression and stand-up style means this fight is only likely to hit the ground when somebody, most likely Markham, is floored and finished.
Peter Irving
The careers of these two fighters tell remarkably similar stories. Both like to stand and bang, and both possess knockout power. It’s not uncommon to see both Hardy and Markham caught in a tight-looking submission, only to escape through sheer force of will.
Where the difference lies is that the savvy Hardy has never been KO’d, but Markham’s ‘kill or be killed’ style has seen him face down on the canvas from time to time. Hardy hasn’t been stopped at all, and his already stubborn submission defence can only have sharpened during his time spent training in the US.
68.75%
Percentage of Markham’s 16 wins that have ended by (T)KO
Markham throws neat combinations and has proven power and accuracy with his left hook and Superman right. In spite of Markham’s impressive head kick KO in his last UFC outing, the rangier Hardy is certainly the better kicker. His Muay Thai is very tidy, and he uses his left leg beautifully, doubling up kicks to legs, body and head, and picks his punches knees and elbows with a considered grace.
Shane Carwin (10-0-0) vs Gabriel Gonzaga (10-3-0)
UFC 96, March 7th 2009, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
31
Age at which Carwin made his MMA debut.
517
517lbs / 236kg: combined fighting weight of both men.
52
52 min 55 seconds: time that Gonzaga has spent fighting in the UFC Octagon.
12-44
12 min 44 seconds: total duration all of Carwin’s ten fights.
Andrew Garvey
A phenomenally powerful, unbeaten wrestler with a 10-0 professional record, the longest fight of the fearsome Carwin’s career lasted a less than epic 131 seconds. Carwin has bludgeoned a string of heavyweights to defeat with his enormous, dynamite-packed fists while throwing in the odd submission win for good measure. A little on the elderly side at 34, Carwin has a great college wrestling pedigree but faces by far his toughest test against massive BJJ black belt ‘Napao’ Gonzaga.
Talented but wildly inconsistent, Gonzaga looked superb in dominating and KO’ing Mirko Cro Cop with a shocking kick to the head in a fight the Croatian was widely tipped to win. That earned him a UFC heavyweight title shot at undersized legend Randy Couture, and Gonzaga took a bloody beating. He followed that with a performance where he was dominating until spiking himself into the canvas with a failed throw against old jiu-jitsu foe Fabricio Werdum. Bouncing back to form, Gonzaga tapped out an overwhelmed Justin McCulley in the first round and then needed just 61 seconds to loudly and brutally KO Josh Hendricks, a fighter with similar wrestling credentials to Carwin.
100%
Shared percentage of finishes. Neither man has ever gone the distance, always finishing the fight by either TKO or submission
Carwin brings a lot more to the table than the blubbery Hendricks or part-timer McCully. A truly fascinating fight, this should see both Carwin and Gonzaga tested to the limit. Whoever wins, most likely the ascendant Carwin, should be on the fast track for a UFC heavyweight title shot in what is looking like the promotion’s most absorbing weight class for 2009.
Peter Irving
A heavyweight the size of Carwin can pose problems to anyone, regardless of their skill, but more muscle needs more fuel, and Carwin’s gas tank remains unproven having only once in his career seen his way past the first round, steamrollering all his opponents but one in under two minutes.
By contrast Gonzaga has been to the second and third several times, and although both have similar experience in terms of numbers, Gonzaga cut his teeth on Meca and Jungle Fight then rapidly progressed to the UFC, whereas Carwin’s opposition has, on the whole, been less than impressive. If Gonzaga can ride the early storm, his ability to pace himself should allow him to outwork the explosive American. Carwin is so big that his sheer size inhibits his striking, whereas Gonzaga is famously able to kick head height. Gonzaga’s real hope of applying his technique relies on being able to take Carwin in to deep waters and avoid being trampled by his early rush.
