Issue 048
April 2009
Our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own very different way.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
Keith Jardine vs Quinton Jackson
UFC 96, March 7 2009, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio
Andrew Garvey
For a while it looked as if the main event of this show would be the intriguing (but sorely lacking in star power) pairing of Shane Carwin and Gabriel Gonzaga. But as so often happens, the UFC’s Joe Silva pulled a magic rabbit out of his matchmaking hat, securing a high stakes battle between two of the sport’s best light heavyweights.
Coming off his crushing one punch KO of old foe Wanderlei Silva, charismatic superstar ‘Rampage’ Jackson seems back to his best, re-invigorated and happy with his new camp at England’s Wolfslair. That victory, and the sheer closeness of his unsuccessful but utterly gripping UFC light heavyweight title defence against Forrest Griffin last July, put him very high on the list of potential challengers to new champion Rashad Evans. Indeed, Jackson looked certain to get first crack at Evans and then, win or lose, head into a rematch with the deposed Griffin - but instead he agreed to face ‘the Dean of Mean’.
Fighting someone as dangerous (if inconsistent) as Jardine is a very real risk. The Albuquerque-based fighter is 3-2 in his last five fights, with a very impressive first-round TKO of Griffin, a measured, tactically superb decision win over Chuck Liddell, and a decision over the once once-promising Brandon Vera. But Jardine’s recent defeats have been beyond decisive. Houston Alexander, a fighter so one dimensional he appears stuck somewhere in 1994, laid waste to an over-confident Jardine in 48 thrillingly destructive seconds. And Wanderlei, who otherwise hasn’t looked himself since mid-2006, viciously knocked out Jardine, leaving him flat out on the canvas in just 36 seconds. It’s those defeats, and a perceived lack of ‘star power’ on Jardine’s part that seem to have kept him out of the title picture. But a win over Jackson would make him a top contender. Of course, he’s highly unlikely to ever face his close friend and training partner, Evans, but he could certainly knock ‘Rampage’ out of contention - while also setting himself up for a shot at the belt should someone else beat his teammate.
The title ramifications definitely make this a significant fight, but it’s also a fascinating one. Both men still have question marks in a number of areas and both have plenty of experience and real ability. Jackson seems worryingly up-and-down mentally, going off on his much-publicized fasting and energy drink-fuelled joyride after losing the title to Griffin, but joking around like the Jackson of old after the Silva fight in December. Obviously a fighter is going to be happier after a win than a loss, but Jackson seems to swing a little too easily in either direction.
Physically, Jackson is as good as they come. He has a great chin, eye-popping strength, real wrestling and submission skills, and some very tidy, if at times flat-footed, striking. He’s an exceptionally dangerous fighter and truly one of the best in the entire sport. But one weakness Jackson has shown a few times is his lack of defence for hard leg-kicks, most notably against Griffin, and that has often been one of Jardine’s best weapons (see his wins over Wilson Gouveia, Liddell, and Vera for proof).
Coming from one of the sport’s best-coached camps, under Greg Jackson, Jardine is a high-quality fighter who will go into the fight the underdog but has a very real chance to win. ‘Rampage’ should prevail but, unless he catches the slow-starting, questionably-chinned Jardine
immediately, it could be a genuinely hard, competitive struggle all the way.
Peter Irving
Cardio
No Greg Jackson-trained fighter ever comes to the cage with sub-par fitness, and equally neither do the Wolfslair. Even the notoriously work-shy Rampage will not be allowed to coast, and in a three round fight it would be a surprise if conditioning was the factor that separated these two.
Striking
Jardine’s frankly bizarre movement and timing is always going to cause problems regardless of the calibre of the opponent, if for no other reason than he is unlike pretty much anyone that can be brought in as a sparring partner. His bobbing, hunched frame appears strangely hard to connect a flush shot with, but Rampage’s eye has been keenly tuned in to the one big, accurate counter-punch ever since his career began anew in the UFC.
Although Rampage’s boxing has improved leaps and bounds, he also developed the common boxer’s defect. Rampage has consistently struggled to deal with leg kicks, taking many without blocking or moving away against Griffin and again with Wanderlei, and although the fight was too short for the kicks to take their toll, a clear pattern was starting to emerge that will surely not have escaped Jardine’s attention. However, now under the tutelage of Dave Jackson, Rampage’s Muay Thai skills will surely continue to develop.
Grappling
With Rampage’s improved striking, his wrestling arsenal has taken a back seat, and Jardine too has a habit of making a kickboxing bout of his MMA fights. Should things go to the mat the deciding factor will certainly be who is on top, Rampage’s strength is clearly working from above and has found himself lost when under the mount. Jardine by contrast has a more rounded grappling/submission game.
Breakdown by the Numbers
Keith Jardine 14-4-1
Rampage Jackson 29-7-0
21
Age at which 30-year-old Jackson made his MMA debut
29
Number of leg kicks Jardine landed on Liddell during their three-round fight.
17
Number of unanswered knees Jackson ate before the referee stopped his first fight with Wanderlei Silva. Rampage didn’t go down from any of them.
48.28%
Percentage of fights Rampage has finished via TKO.
Carlos Condit vs Martin Kampmann
UFC Fight Night, April 1st 2009,
Nashville, Tennessee
Andrew Garvey
WEC Welterweight champion Condit finally makes his long awaited and much-rumoured UFC debut. Tagged as one of the best young fighters in the sport for the last three years, the 24-year-old ‘Natural Born Killer’ had nothing left to prove in Zuffa’s sister promotion, even if they weren’t phasing out the weight class. Condit won the title by beating the talented Brock Larson with an extremely tight armbar before guillotining Carlo Prater with shocking ease in his first defence. But Condit’s last outing was a different matter. Among the most dramatic fights of 2008, Condit was flung all over the cage by judo stylist Hiromitsu Miura, but by constantly working for submissions and maintaining a furious pace, Condit outlasted and smashed Miura to a fourth round TKO defeat.
One of the best (and most well-rounded) Europeans in the entire sport, the Las Vegas-based Dane Martin Kampmann is making his seventh UFC appearance, and second at 170lb. As an undersized middleweight, Kampmann reached the fringes of title contention (beating Thales Leites along the way) before a stunning 82 second pasting from a rampant Nate Marquardt last September prompted a drop in weight. Kampmann’s welterweight debut was outstanding as the 26-year-old shrugged off a brutal kick to the nuts early on to pound out a second round win. In a sport as unpredictable as this, few things are certain, but with these two an excellent fight and an explosive ending are almost guaranteed. Whoever wins, they may not be too far away from genuine title contention.
Peter Irving
Tall and lean, the rangy Condit kicks and knees without fear of the takedown. He defends himself so well from his guard, mixing up sweeps and submissions while keeping his head safe, that being put on his back hardly seems a disadvantage to him. His submission finishes are all of the orthodox ilk, but he applies them in textbook fashion with force and speed.
Having fought most of his career at middleweight, the 6’ Dane cuts a tall figure as a welterweight. His striking style is straight forward, and has shown his static head to be an easy target at times, but makes up for it with good power in his hands and a lethal left kick that he throws gracefully and accurately. His submission game is tight, and he will work patiently, inching toward his finish. Kampmann executes throws well from high tie-ups but is rarely seen shooting for the legs.
Breakdown by the Numbers
Carlos Condit 23-4-0
Martin Kampmann 14-2-0
7
Number of countries in which Kampmann has fought MMA.
18
Age at which Condit made his professional MMA debut.
15
Number of fights Kampmann had at middleweight before dropping to 170lb.
18
Number of months Condit spent as WEC welterweight champion before signing with the UFC.
100%
Percentage of fights Condit has finished inside the distance. He has never been to a decision.
Chuck Liddell vs ‘Shogun’ Rua
UFC 97, April 18 2009,
Bell Centre, Montreal, Canada
Andrew Garvey
It’s amazing to think that a fighter who returned from devastating knee injuries to score, stoppage victory over a legend of the sport could still be widely condemned and criticized for his performance, but that’s exactly what happened to Rua in the immediate aftermath of his dramatic, slow-motion battle with Mark Coleman, a fighter old enough to be his dad.
For all his abundant talent (the Shogun of 2005 was an incredible fighter) Rua has mostly looked awful since signing with the UFC. Whether it’s the different rules, adjusting to fighting in the cage, the aforementioned knee injuries, or something else, Rua has been a terrible disappointment. But in Liddell, he faces a fighter with recent problems of his own.
Much like Shogun, the Liddell of 2005 was simply brilliant, but now, age (and his hard-living lifestyle) seems to have finally caught up with one of the most iconic fighters in UFC history. Losing three of his last four fights Liddell looked ploddingly slow and out of ideas against both Keith Jardine and Rashad Evans.
Always a concussive counter-striker, the 39-year-old Liddell struggles when his opponent refuses to play along by charging wildly after him. Both fighters have a lot to lose in this. Desperation to impress and shut up their growing legions of detractors may well spur both men into an epic, crowd-pleasing brawl. Let’s hope so.
Peter Irving
Age is on Shogun’s side as Liddell’s lifestyle and long career catches up with him, but serious question marks hang over Shogun’s physical readiness, after lacking the explosive energy that characterized his early performances, during his last two outings.
Although the Iceman’s air of invincibility may have melted, he still poses the same problems as he ever did. Where the awkward Jardine and animated Evans may have found the key to unlocking Chuck’s counter-punching style the question is, can the straightforward pressure-fighter do the same? Unable to properly apply a smart offence, even against the strategically open book that is Coleman, it seems hard to imagine that Shogun’s camp will be able to properly plan for Liddell the way Jardine and Evans did under the tutelage of an MMA mastermind like Jackson. Shogun has had his aura of invincibility well and truly shattered, and the outcome of this fight must surely hang on who can reinvigorate their desire and self-belief.
Shogun’s jiu-jitsu is strong and certainly more developed than Liddell’s, but how can Shogun engage the masterful counter wrestler in a ground battle? Given Chuck’s superb takedown defence and scrambles, Shogun will struggle to take down, and keep down, a fit Liddell. Once again the question is about conditioning.
Breakdown by the Numbers
Chuck Liddell 21-6-0
Shogun Rua 17-3-0
12
Age difference in years between Liddell and Shogun
21
Number of times Liddell has fought in the UFC Octagon
4
Number of times Liddell defended the UFC light heavyweight title.
3
Number of eight-man tournaments Shogun has fought in (he won two).
61.9%
Percentage of Liddell’s victories by TKO.
82.35%
Percentage of Shogun’s victories by TKO.
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