Issue 046
February 2009
2009 looks set to start with a bang. In the first of a new feature, our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own different ways.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations. Finally, Rami Genauer of Fightmetric.com provides us with some telling figures from past fights.
Georges St Pierre vs BJ Penn
UFC 94, 31 January 2009, Las Vegas
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
5
Number of takedowns GSP scored on Jon Fitch, widely thought to be one of the best wrestlers in the UFC.
16
16 minutes 18 seconds: Time GSP has shared the Octagon with Matt Hughes. GSP holds two wins over the former champ: one via TKO, one via submission.
6
Number of wrestlers GSP has faced (and beaten) in his UFC career.
4
BJ Penn’s career victories by rear naked choke.
0
Takedowns BJ Penn conceded to Sean Sherk.
22
Age at which both BJ Penn and GSP made their UFC debut.
25
Age at which both BJ and GSP won the UFC welterweight title.
Andrew Garvey
After a successful year in 2008, the UFC really kicks off 2009 with this highly-anticipated and hyped rematch for St Pierre’s UFC welterweight title. Lightweight champion Penn is moving up in weight to challenge for the belt in a clash of the sport’s best 170lb and 155lb fighters. When they first met (in March 2006 at UFC 58) both were welterweight contenders vying for a shot at champion Matt Hughes. St Pierre took a hotly debated split decision. BJ had just returned to the promotion after a couple of years fighting in Hawaii and Japan, while St Pierre was riding a four-fight winning streak after losing to Hughes at UFC 50 in a match for the vacant title. Why was the belt vacant? Because Penn, having submitted welterweight champion Hughes at UFC 46, promptly signed to fight for K-1, the short-lived MMA offshoot. Unhappy with one of their champions fighting for another promotion, the UFC stripped him of the title and the resulting lawsuits and arguments kept Penn out of the Octagon for two years.
In that UFC 58 fight, Penn clearly took the first round, landing some precise punches (including a particularly peachy uppercut right to the nose). St Pierre was more aggressive in the second, doing enough to steal the round with takedowns and a nice variety of punches, kicks, and knees. In the third and final round GSP’s superior conditioning made the difference. Even then, it was desperately close and a further two rounds would almost certainly have given us a much clearer outcome. Thankfully, we’ll have the full five championship rounds on 31 January.
St Pierre won the fight but a training injury robbed him of his immediate title shot. Instead, Penn faced champion Hughes at UFC 63. Penn was ‘schooling’ Hughes until running out of gas or suffering a rib injury (depending on which story you believe). Hughes finished it with some brutal third-round ground n’ pound but, in his very next match, Hughes was smashed to pieces by a rampant GSP at UFC 65.
What’s changed since UFC 58? Penn has finally started taking his training and conditioning seriously. It sounds like a cliché but, ever since his June 2007 dismantling of old lightweight rival Jens Pulver, Penn really has looked in the best shape of his life. Seven months after Pulver, Penn looked equally impressive in becoming only the second man in UFC history to ever win titles in two weight classes. He annihilated Joe Stevenson for the lightweight title, and followed with a completely different destruction of former champ Sean Sherk to retain the belt at UFC 84. Displaying his crisp, precise striking, Penn stopped Sherk at the end of the third round.
73%
The ratio of strikes landed by BJ Penn on Sean Sherk. Penn landed 122 strikes to Sherk’s 46
St Pierre has gone 4-1 since his UFC 65 obliteration of Hughes. He shockingly lost his title in the first defence, hammered to defeat by the scrappy Matt Serra in a monumental upset. GSP rebounded slowly, grinding out a decision win over Josh Koscheck. It was a fight notable only for GSP’s uncanny ability to outwrestle a superb wrestler, something he’d already proved in his 2005 wins over Frank Trigg and Sean Sherk. Since then, GSP has been unstoppable. He laid waste to Hughes in their UFC 79 rubber match and then thrilled his countrymen by destroying Serra to regain the belt in Montreal. GSP’s athleticism and wrestling aptitude were on display once again in his subsequent UFC 87 title defence against Jon Fitch. Walking away with the clearest of decision victories, St Pierre out-struck and out-wrestled Fitch in an incredibly dominant display.
This is going to be a huge fight on a traditionally big UFC show (the night before the Super Bowl). Both fighters are on tremendous form, both of them are champions in exceptionally competitive weight classes, and they are both genuine MMA superstars. Whoever wins this is going to be something truly special.
Peter Irving
Cardio
Much has been said about BJ Penn’s improved stamina, but he hasn’t had to prove he’s got it as he stopped Stevenson, Sherk, and Pulver early. GSP, by contrast, out-worked Fitch over five rounds, demonstrating great stamina and the ability to pace himself – a skill Penn has often lacked. The longer the fight goes, the more it favours GSP.
Striking
Last time BJ’s hand speed caused problems for St Pierre, who was unable to dictate the range. It’s worth noting that BJ thumbed GSP’s eye and the Canadian was partially blinded, so we could see a whole different story this time. Penn can cause horrible damage with punches that don’t appear to be thrown with great effort, so the Canadian could once again find himself marked up badly. GSP packs a versatile arsenal of kicks that BJ just can’t match. If he dictates his range, the Hawaiian is set to suffer.
Wrestling
Penn has shown his phenomenal takedown defence against some of the best wrestlers in the UFC. But while they have struggled to take BJ down, GSP did not, and he has outwrestled their three common opponents: Serra, Hughes, and Sherk. GSP also has equally incredible takedown defence, but whereas Penn utilises his flexibility and balance, GSP uses explosiveness. Once down, Penn often accepts guard, while St Pierre will scramble to his feet. Should BJ want the takedown he could be in for a hard night. When St Pierre is likely to attempt his takedown is anyone’s guess. His success with takedowns is largely due to his unpredictability, going low, high, in the centre, or against the fence.
Submission grappling
Not all black belts are created equal, and few can rival Penn’s jiu-jitsu. GSP has a jiu-jitsu style that is ‘rough around the edges’ but he backs it up with tremendous force. He could well muscle the smaller man and stifle his game. The chances of Penn submitting GSP without tiring or injuring him first are small, even for a massive talent like Penn the submission rests on his ability to wear GSP down.
Fedor Emelianenko vs Andrei Arlovski
Affliction 2, 24 January 2009, Los Angeles
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
29
Total number of career wins held by Fedor Emelianenko.
11
Opponents who have outweighed Fedor by more than 10lb.
36
Time in seconds it took Fedor to defeat Tim Sylvia. In contrast, Randy Couture could not finish Sylvia inside 25 minutes.
14
14 inches: height difference between Hong-Man Choi and Fedor.
11
Numbers of KOs on Arlovski’s record.
Andrew Garvey
This would have been a genuine dream match only a couple of years ago, and though both men’s shine has faded, this fight still pits two of the sport’s best heavyweights against each other. But something just seems missing. Arlovski’s last few (mostly awful) UFC appearances hardly enhanced his reputation, and since signing up with Affliction he’s only faced tubby brawlers Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson. At times, Arlovski has looked exceptional, but he remains dogged by questions about his apparently fragile chin. His oft-stated intention to give boxing a try calls into question his commitment to the sport.
100%
Accuracy of leg kicks thrown by Andrei Arlovski in his fight with Ben Rothwell
For his part, the near-mythical heavyweight king Emelianenko is coming off his first defeat in eight years. True, that loss came in Combat Sambo, Fedor’s hobby / passion, but it certainly dented the aura of invincibility he’d created in such style when he utterly obliterated Tim Sylvia in July. With the ongoing soap opera of his financial demands and Byzantine business arrangements, Emelianenko is that great rarity: a supremely talented fighter who, it sometimes seems, just doesn’t want to fight. While he should be the firm favourite to defend his ridiculous ‘undisputed’ World Alliance of Mixed Martial Arts [WAMMA] heavyweight title, his next move is anybody’s guess as every promotion he’s ever fought for is either dead or on the critically endangered list, and after so many failed negotiations he’s hardly on the best of terms with the UFC.
Peter Irving
This is the heavyweight division’s most fearsome puncher against its most famous glass jaw. The problem Arlovski faces is obvious: he simply cannot stand in front of Fedor and trade blow-for-blow. His footwork has always been good, and now with renowned boxing trainer Freddie Roach behind him his movement should be better than ever. Arlovski kicks well but could never match Emelianenko’s ferocious power. Arlovski is not without knockout power, but Fedor’s chin has passed the test against bigger hitters.
It's rare to see Arlovski attempting takedowns, while Fedor’s throws are superb. His reversals are unparalleled, having countered Lindland and survived Randleman’s amazing ‘suplex of death’. Should Arlovski succeed in taking him down, he will find it a major challenge to keep him there. It’s uncommon to see Fedor attempt leg tackles, and his power will serve him well in the clinch.
Fedor has demonstrated consistently that he is practically submission proof – if Minotauro couldn’t do it, what real hope does Arlovski have?
Thiago Silva vs Lyoto Machida
UFC 94, 31 January 2009, Las Vegas
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
15
Number of punches Silva threw at Houston Alexander from mount before the fight was stopped.
0
Number of attacks landed by Tito Ortiz in the first five minutes of his fight with Lyoto Machida.
4
Age at which Machida started training karate.
5
Number of appearances in the UFC Octagon (shared by both men).
9
Number of fights Silva has finished in the first round. Silva has never gone the distance.
Andrew Garvey
Thanks to the sheer unpredictability of MMA, it is rare for any fighter (even those with exceptional talent) to go unbeaten for long. This fascinating match between a pair of fighters with 13-0 records sees the 26-year-old BJJ black belt Silva and the elegantly elusive 30-year-old Machida battle it out to remain undefeated. The winner is likely to be pushed to the head of the queue of UFC light heavyweight title challengers.
Highly skilled on the ground, Silva nonetheless prefers punching people in the face and he may need all his aggression to drag the half-Brazilian, half-Japanese Machida into the kind of war fans have been waiting for since he first came to the UFC. Machida has fought and outclassed some big name fighters (including Rich Franklin and Tito Ortiz) but has too often been content to wait, counter, and claim a decision win.
When he goes for the finish Lyoto is clinically accurate, but he seems to take forever to really get going. Silva has gone the distance just once and may well have the furious style to force Machida out of his comfort zone – and into the kind of fight that will let us see just how good both men really are.
Peter Irving
Southpaw Lyoto paws with his jab, moving in and out of range and firing in his left cross. His left leg is his power leg, and his inside leg kick is effective against orthodox opponents. Watch him mix-up low-, body-, and high kicks, faking with one leg and throwing the other.
Silva’s style, although less cagey than Machida’s, is not wholly dissimilar, favouring straight punches and left kicks. Although Silva is right-handed, he can be expected to switch. With proven knockout power, he could do damage should he manage to find his range on the elusive Machida.
Machida has out-wrestled many opponents who might have been expected to dominate him in this area. It is more common to see Silva’s fights go to the floor from a knockdown than a takedown.
Silva holds the mount well and delivers devastating barrages of punches, perhaps best demonstrated in his bout against Houston Alexander. Machida works from side control superbly. Both men have well-rounded jiu-jitsu, but both work best from top position.
