Issue 057
December 2009
Our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own very different ways.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
Breakdown by the Numbers
BJ Penn vs Diego Sanchez
3,18
3 years 18 days. Age difference between Penn (30) and Sanchez (27)
81
(%) Combined winning rate of total fights. Sanchez has won 21 of his 24 bouts, Penn has won 14 of his 19
$65,000
Total amount of money won by Sanchez for his Fight of the Night awards
2
Weight classes in which Penn has held UFC gold (lightweight and welterweight)
83%
Percentage of fights Penn has won at 155lb
Breakdown by the Numbers
UFC Lightweight title: BJ Penn vs Diego Sanchez
UFC 107, December 12, 2009,
FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee
The Bigger Picture
Originally booked for the triumphant homecoming of Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson and his epic.grudge fight with Rashad Evans, the $250million, 17,000+ seat FedEx Forum will instead play host to a fascinating lightweight title fight between an enigmatic, ultra-talented and re-dedicated Hawaiian, and a New Mexican best summed up by UFC commentator Joe Rogan as “a strange dude”.
Clearly, there’s no real hometown involvement in the main event, but the personality and ability of these two 155lb fighters should ensure a vocal, excited crowd and promises to be a truly memorable fight.
Penn was in truly devastating form in his last fight – a successful title defense against Kenny Florian. As promised, BJ finally showed up in exceptional shape, thanks to the punishing regime set by 70-year-old hard nut conditioning guru Marv Marinovich. Able to continually repel Florian’s takedown attempts, Penn put on a flawless defensive performance and, once he chose to take Florian to the mat in the fourth round, finished a highly regarded BJJ black belt with speed and precision.
For a man of his exceptional talent (who has so often got by on his ability, without necessarily putting in the required pre-fight work) it was a mature, masterful performance. Hopefully, the drubbing he received from Georges St Pierre in January and the sheer brilliance of the Florian fight has, once and for all, convinced Penn that weight classes exist for a reason, and that he can build a real legacy and gain more from a successful third defense of his lightweight belt than another quixotic shot at welterweight glory.
Penn has lost only once at his natural weight, and that was way back in 2002. At 155lb, he’s obliterated Sean Sherk, laid waste to Takanori Gomi, squashed Joe Stevenson and made Kenny Florian look like a rank amateur. On paper at least, a properly trained and motivated Penn, genuinely convinced his belt is under threat, should add Sanchez to that list.
While Sanchez rose to fame on the back of his TUF winner’s contract, ‘The Nightmare’ is one of the select few who would almost certainly have ended up under contract to (and prospering in) the UFC anyway. Prior to his time in the TUF house, Sanchez had gone 11-0 and already shown immense promise. He’s 8-2 as a UFC welterweight and right now is 2-0 at 155lb, bagging a pair of decision wins (and Fight of the Night bonuses) over Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida.
While the Stevenson fight was an impressive showing, it was the Guida fight which really cemented Diego’s status as a title threat and earned him this shot against Penn. Never stopped or submitted, Sanchez maintains a ferocious pace that should test Penn’s newfound conditioning to the absolute limit. At times wildly aggressive, Sanchez has developed tremendously as a striker and should feel happy to stay on his feet, even with as neat and punishing a boxer, as Penn.
A good wrestler and a talented submission artist, but hardly exceptional at either, Sanchez may have to fight wherever the slick, elusive Penn chooses. However, his sheer energy, toughness, self-belief and track record of fighting right until the final bell (see his 2006 classic with Karo Parisyan) make him a very credible opponent, even for a champion as peerlessly gifted as Penn.
Technical Breakdown
The overwhelming strategic problem facing Sanchez is that in every area that he is good, Penn is simply great. Sanchez favors single legs; Penn excels at balancing and stuffing single leg attacks. Sanchez favors his hands; BJ thrives in a boxing match, and ultimately, as good as Diego’s jiu-jitsu is, this is BJ Penn he’s fighting. Enough said. The only way in which he outstrips Penn is his sustained intensity. Sanchez is capable of maintaining a frenzied pace throughout three rounds, but whether he elects to pace himself differently for a title fight or will succeed in pushing the same all-out furious attack over five remains to be seen.
Much has been made of Penn’s new and improved conditioning regimen, but it’s a story we’ve heard before. The proof was supposedly in the Kenny Florian fight, but in truth it was more Kenny wearing himself out against Penn with the Hawaiian employing an energy-efficient style that allowed him to finish Florian, not a straight out test of conditioning. Rather than going head to head with ‘The Nightmare’, it is more likely that Penn will use his acute movement and outstanding balance to stuff Diego’s efforts until he begins to wear down, then pulling the trigger in the same fashion as he dealt with Florian and Sherk.
Sanchez’s striking-style, and the unusual way he has taken to holding his guard, is reminiscent of an old-fashioned Queensbury rules boxer. He utilized long, stiff, scooping uppercuts to keep the shooting window closed against Guida, and delivers explosive jumping knees and strong kicks with ease, in spite of his stiff appearance. His grappling is likewise explosive and manic whereas BJ, in contrast, has a typically relaxed style to his movement on the feet and on the mat.
Breakdown by the Numbers
Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida
48
12 (48%) of Guida’s career wins have come by submission
21
Combined number of Florian and Guida’s UFC appearances
6
Number of fights Florian has finished in the first round.
3
Times Guida has been awarded Fight of the Night.
91%
Percentage of fights Florian has finished inside the distance.
Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida
UFC 107, December 12, 2009,
FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee
The Bigger Picture
How can anyone not love Clay Guida? Absurdly energetic and owner of one of the most ludicrously fantastic haircuts in the entire sport, Guida is coming off one of the greatest fights in MMA history: his monumental split decision loss to Diego Sanchez. That was the third ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus of Guida’s nine fight, 5-4 UFC career, and while he may never get a UFC title shot, the former Strikeforce lightweight champion is a legitimate crowd and company favorite who could probably lose ten fights in a row and remain under contract.
Two-time UFC lightweight title challenger Florian put together a superb six-fight winning streak until his complete dismantling at the hands of BJ Penn in August. At 33, that was likely ‘Ken Flo’s last shot at the title, but he clearly has a very bright future in the commentary booth and in the meantime he shouldn’t have any trouble getting motivated for a fight like this. It’s no secret that Guida will try and put him under immense pressure from start-to-finish, or that Florian will counter with his sharp kickboxing and slick grappling. But just because everyone knows what’s coming doesn’t make it any less exciting. Christmas is coming thirteen days early in Memphis.
Technical Analysis
Florian and Guida cut about as different figures in the Octagon as two 155lb’ers possibly can. Tall, upright and with fast, light footwork, Florian stands in stark contrast to the hunched, crouching, flatfooted Guida.
Guida, like all fighters with short stature and short limbs, must take one to give one in a striking exchange, and to his credit does so fearlessly, confident in his chin and ability to recover. Florian is far more calculating, moving around and choosing his shots carefully. Expect Kenny to use his footwork to outmaneuver Guida, pawing with the right jab and cueing up the left kick in his characteristic style. Sanchez caused problems to Guida with his southpaw stance and ability to cut-off the cage with good lateral footwork. Undoubtedly he will have worked to remedy these flaws in the interim, as he will certainly be confronted by the same problems by the Boston fighter.
Breakdown by the Numbers
Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo
‘01
Year in which both men made their MMA debut.
3-7
3 years 7 days. Age difference between Kongo (34) and Mir (31)
4
All four of Mir’s losses have been by TKO.
1
Number of opponents they share (Antoni Hardonk). Mir won by first round submission, Kongo by second round TKO.
64%
Percentage of Kongo’s 14 wins that are by TKO.
Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo
UFC 107, December 12, 2009,
FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee
The Bigger Picture
Aggrieved at seemingly everyone on the planet dismissing his career-best performance in finishing Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira as the result of Minotauro’s knee injury and debilitating staph infection, Mir has spent considerable time talking up a rematch with the Brazilian. Nothing will derail that campaign faster than looking past Kongo, a statuesque striker with blindingly obvious flaws in his repertoire that Mir should theoretically be able to exploit. The last time Mir faced a one-dimensional kickboxer, he needed less than 90 seconds to tap out Antoni Hardonk with a lovely kimura.
At times, Kongo has looked exceptionally dangerous (most graphically in his utter destruction of Mustapha Al-Turk) with a frightening barrage of elbows on the mat. And Mir has looked exceptionally vulnerable to just such an attack in the past, with all four of his professional losses due to ground ‘n pound. Mir’s submission skill really sets them apart, but with Kongo’s strength, power and explosiveness, he may not particularly want to be on his back. Standing with Kongo would be an even worse idea in what is a genuinely and fascinatingly high-risk fight for Mir.
Technical Analysis
In spite of Mir’s much improved striking skills, this fight is as much a striker vs grappler as any UFC bout can be in today’s era. Kongo, like all tall Thai boxers, is prey to the blessing and curse of his long legs. The tall pins that give him powerful and accurate kicks inevitably topple him when engaged in a wrestling battle. Where others like Etim and Anderson Silva have developed great guard skills to compensate for this characteristic, Kongo has not.
For a ground technician of Mir’s caliber, passing Kongo’s guard should not present an overwhelming challenge. In terms of pure submission grappling, Mir would have little to fear from Kongo’s ground skills, but should he find himself underneath Kongo, the Frenchman’s raw physical power and aggressive striking could cause Mir serious problems.
