Issue 056
November 2009
Our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own very different ways.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
Breakdown by the Numbers
Mike Brown vs Jose Aldo
6:02
total time taken for Aldo to KO his last three opponents
11
years age difference between Brown (34) and Aldo (23)
3
number of awards won by Brown in last three WEC appearances (submission, KO and Fight of the night)
1
day difference between birthdays (Brown 9/8, Aldo 9/9)
100%
of Brown’s losses are by submission
Mike Brown vs Jose Aldo
WEC 44, November 11 2009
The Bigger Picture
Talented.no-nonsense veteran Brown (22-4-0) makes the third defense of his featherweight crown against the much younger, electrifying Brazilian in what looks like being a typically superb WEC main event. Challenger Aldo (15-1-0) turns 23 a couple of months before the fight and has already proved himself one of the sport’s most exciting young talents. Eleven years older than Aldo, the champion is one of the most solid, physically dominant fighters (within his own weight class) in the world.
Both men made their WEC debuts on June 1st 2008, and have rattled off a combined nine wins for the UFC’s little-brother promotion. Brown’s four-fight winning run has mostly come right at the top of the card and includes his unexpected first-round obliteration of a too-flashy Urijah Faber (to win the belt) last November, his subsequent thrashing of Leonard Garcia and his epic decision-win over Faber in June’s biggest fight in WEC history.
Only Brown’s WEC debut, an unbearably dull decision over Jeff Curran, has disappointed. Prior to his WEC run, Brown had fought all over the place, often at lightweight, where he holds wins over top talent such as Mark Hominick and Yves Edwards. His only previous ‘big time’ experience came at UFC 47 where he was thrown in with, and out-classed by, Genki Sudo. But in WEC, at 145lb, one of the sport’s most humble, diligent and effective fighters has found a home.
A former semi-pro soccer player, Aldo (you see, they aren’t all insufferable wusses) is part of elite Brazilian training camp Nova Uniao, a team known for churning out supremely talented grapplers. Aldo is something of an exception. While a typically high-class BJJ black belt, he earned his title shot with some fearsome displays of aggression and a blitzkrieg striking-style. Proficient with flying knees (ask Roland Perez, or his most recent victim Cub Swanson, about them), a variety of low and body kicks (Chris Mickle) and chillingly effective with his fists once his opponent is in trouble (Alexandre Nogueira, Jonathan Brookins), Aldo has picked up two KO of the night bonuses in WEC. Overall, he’s finished ten fights by KO or TKO, and hasn’t lost a professional fight since he was a teenager, and that was to the very dangerous Luciano Azevedo. Aldo has never gone the distance in the WEC cage, and has only had to rely on the judges three times in a five-year career.
Brown has shown some weakness defending submissions in the past, with all four of his losses by tap out. However, losing to the likes of Hermes Franca, Genki Sudo, Joe Lauzon and Masakazu Imanari is no disgrace. Worryingly for Brown though, Aldo is an excellent, highly credentialed grappler. That may be the key to this fight. Brown has far more submission wins to his credit than Aldo (12 in total) but if he starts swapping submission attempts on the mat he could be in real trouble. Aldo is more than capable of tapping out his opponents, he just tends to annihilate them with strikes. Brown has tremendous physical advantages and has proven stamina. Aldo has never gone five rounds, and hasn’t been a full three in over two years. Brown is a strong, well-rounded fighter but Aldo may just be more creative and more gifted. We could be about to see the coronation of a new, and very special, champion.
Technical Breakdown
Mike Brown uses a tight, compact boxing-style that maximizes the effectiveness of his physique and allows him to throw very powerful punches. He throws his right hook in particular with bad intentions and in the past it’s been influential in his victories over Garcia and Faber. Whilst his striking-style does sacrifice range for power, Brown’s very good at slipping inside without taking punishment. From close range, he’s well placed to employ the wrestling pedigree that was the mainstay of his early MMA career.
On the mat, he prefers to work with punches and elbows from the top position and he maintains a high pace throughout. He is capable of submitting opponents, favoring chokes above other submissions, while rarely at risk of being submitted himself.
Although the WEC announces Jose Aldo as a jiu-jitsu fighter, he fights more like a Muay Thai practitioner. His ferocity and quickness are what sets him apart from other fighters in his weight category as his last three opponents will attest to – none of them made it out of the first round. He throws a stiff left-jab at a frightening speed, which keeps his opponents at distance and distracted so that he can employ another of his favorite weapons – the right low kick.
He’s an expert at landing this fast kick in the same spot over and over but will on occasion whip this kick high, keeping his opponents guessing. But perhaps the most dangerous strike in his arsenal is his right knee, which he throws well from range as both an offensive and defensive tool. Although we haven’t seen much of his groundwork recently, Aldo is a BJJ black belt and should be capable of defending against any submissions that come his way from Brown. However, Brown can use his wrestling and size to smother his opponents on the mat and a ground battle would favor the American.
It would be fair to describe Brown as an opportunist who makes his opponents pay for any mistakes that they make. Garcia and Faber both suffered as a result of being overzealous and this is where he could also make Aldo pay if the young Brazilian isn’t cautious.
Breakdown by the Numbers
Cain Velasquez vs Ben Rothwell
251
number of head shots landed by Velasquez on Cheick Kongo
4
inch height advantage Rothwell has over Velasquez
30
difference in the number of bouts Rothwell has fought (36) over Velasquez (6)
1-1
Rothwell’s record against former UFC Heavyweight Champions
57%
of Rothwell’s victories won by KO or TKO
Cain Velasquez vs Ben Rothwell
UFC 104, Los Angeles, California, October 24th, 2009
The.Bigger Picture
Originally set to fight Shane Carwin for a mega-money title shot at Brock Lesnar, rising heavyweight star Velasquez instead takes on Rothwell (an Affliction refugee and long-time protégé of Pat Miletich) in a fascinating fight. After decimating his first five opponents, Velasquez beat Cheick Kongo by decision in June. Velasquez showed no defense, was rocked badly and repeatedly, and didn’t seem to significantly hurt Kongo on the ground. That said, he still utterly dominated and anyone dismissing him as nothing but overblown hype should be very careful.
UFC newcomer Rothwell is still just 28 but has a wealth of experience, sporting a 33-6-0 record and, prior to his July 2008 loss to Andrei Arlovski, an impressive 13-fight winning streak. Owner of an iron chin, Rothwell took incredible abuse from Arlovski before finally falling early in the third. Big Ben is hardly the fastest, slickest striker in the sport, but he’s a big, rugged, tough and effective fighter. But that simply may not be enough against a fighter with such prodigious talent as Velasquez. Whatever happens, this fight should answer some questions about each man’s standing in the UFC’s newly excellent heavyweight division.
Technical Analysis
Velasquez has incredible wrestling skills and rarely wastes time getting them to the mat. Confusingly for his opponents, he chooses not to establish and hold position, instead riding them and landing strikes as they scramble under him. His stand-up still needs some work however, and Kongo exposed his chin as a potential chink in his armor during his last fight, rocking him several times with straight punches.
Rothwell’s power lies in his hands and in particular his straight right, which he sets up with a pawing left hook. After fighting for the last few years in rings he should enjoy the change to a cage which favors his close pressure / dirty boxing-style. Rarely mixing in kicks, he’s a genuine one-shot KO fighter with a decent chin to boot. His takedown defense is solid but he’s not met a wrestler the caliber of Velasquez yet and that’s where this fight will be won or lost. If Rothwell can keep Velasquez off him he stands a good chance of knocking out the AKA prospect. If not, expect another Kongo-style beating.
Breakdown by the Numbers
Anthony Johnson vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida
3:20
total time taken for Yoshida to submit War Machine and Brandon Wolff
100
(percent) of Yoshida’s UFC fights ended in the first 2 minutes 30 seconds
3
years Johson has been a professional fighter
9
win streak Yoshida had prior to his KO loss to Josh Koscheck
57%
of Johnson’s 7 victories that have ended in the first round
Anthony Johnson vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida
UFC 104, Los Angeles, California, October 24th, 2009
The Bigger Picture
Few young fighters in the entire sport have as much potential as 25-year-old welterweight ‘Rumble’ Johnson. Aggressive, athletic, and self-critical in a way that seems to guarantee future improvement, Johnson has heavy hands and is an immense welterweight. A decade older, judo stylist Yoshida boasts an impressive array of takedowns and chokes but sorely lacks the size, power, energy and striking prowess of his opponent. Yoshida is a quality fighter, but may end up being best known for being so frighteningly KO’d by Josh Koscheck last December. Unlike many Japanese fighters Yoshida is perfectly at home in a cage, but may not be too happy in there with a beast like Johnson. ‘Rumble’ is coming off a pair of stoppage wins, gaining revenge over Kevin Burns with a stunning high-kick KO early in the third round and pounding out brawler Luigi Fioravanti. Burns had ‘won’ their first fight thanks to repeated (yet seemingly unintentional) eye-pokes, and poor refereeing saw their fight ruled a TKO instead of a no contest. Johnson’s performance in the rematch suggests he’s a fighter with a very, very bright future. Yoshida is dangerous, but Johnson should win in impressive fashion.
Technical Analysis
Johnson has a lot of raw power that, if fine tuned, could see him become a force in the welterweight division. His explosiveness both with striking and takedowns make him a tough opponent for less experienced fighters. He has KO power in both his right cross and his right head kick and if either land clean it’s ‘lights out’ for his opponents. Favoring lower-body takedowns he’s good a timing them with his opponent’s attacks, helping to increase his takedown percentage. Once on the mat he’s more ‘rough and tumble’ than ‘patience and precision’, striking and improving position but rarely attempting submissions.
Yoshida comes from a judo background and employs hip tosses to great effect in his fights. Unlike many Japanese fighters he’s accustomed to fighting in the cage and he’s capable of using it to good effect, setting up takedowns, strikes and submissions. His real talent comes from catching submissions in transition and this is where he’ll be most dangerous to the sometimes wild Johnson. Yoshida’s ground control could be too much for Johnson on the mat and his maturity and composure under fire tips the fight in his favor. Should be an exciting fight.
