Issue 050
June 2009
Our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own different ways.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert, Peter Irving, breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
Brock Lesnar (3-1-0) vs Frank Mir (12-3-0)
Undisputed UFC heavyweight title
UFC 100, July 11 2009, Las Vegas
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
5
Number of wrestling championships won by Lesnar
24:46
Length of time Lesnar has spent in the ring / cage [minutes : seconds]
58:3
Percentage of Mir’s wins by submission
8
Years Mir has been a professional fighter
57/119
Number of strikes Mir landed on Minotauro [landed/thrown]
Andrew Garvey
In February 2008, at UFC 81, former NCAA champion wrestler Brock Lesnar was one controversial referee’s intervention away from.splattering former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir all over the mat, and that was in just his second MMA fight.
Fifteen months later, Lesnar strides into the Octagon as UFC heavyweight champion, having manhandled and humbled veteran Heath Herring and TKO’d living legend Randy Couture to lift the title. For his part, interim UFC heavyweight champion Mir is riding a three-fight winning streak and is coming off the most impressive performance of his career at UFC 92 in December. Few expected the 3-1 underdog Mir to defeat iron-chinned former Pride champ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, least of all Mir, as he so candidly admitted afterwards. But he did, lifting the sort-of-title in a messy situation that will thankfully be resolved soon enough.
Mir’s second-round TKO victory over Nogueira was superb. He dominated the first round, out-boxing and repeatedly hurting the Brazilian before finishing him off in the second. It was a genuinely emotional moment for Mir, just two years after his career seemed finished. In November 2006, he was obliterated in 69 seconds by forgotten man Brandon Vera, and in his first fight back from a horrific motorcycle accident, Mir was TKO’d by Marcio Cruz, a fighter so painfully one-dimensional and under-evolved he may as well have arrived at UFC 57 in a time machine marked ‘1994’.
True, Mir showed flashes of his old brilliance in his August 2007 submission win over Dutch striker Antoni Hardonk, but he really wasn’t ‘supposed’ to beat Nogueira who, on the night, was reputedly hampered by injury, and showed worryingly zombie-like reflexes, dulled by years of taking excessive punishment (even in fights he won). But Mir still deserves plenty of credit, and he more than earned this fascinating rematch.
Plenty of people are utterly convinced Lesnar is going to finish the annihilation he started last time, and many are passionately certain that Mir is going to catch Lesnar with another submission. The pro-Mir faction may be setting themselves up for a serious disappointment. First time around, the near-superhuman Lesnar took Mir down immediately and hurt him with his ferocious ‘Donkey Kong’ punches before Steve Mazzagatti paused the fight to dock a point for Lesnar whacking Mir in the back of the head.
That Mir was turning his head backwards into those punches was lost on Mazzagatti, and his interference broke Lesnar’s momentum just as Mir was looking raggedly vulnerable. But even then, Lesnar quickly floored Mir with a jab and was back to mauling and mashing him on the ground, until Mir caught a kneebar in a piece of skilled opportunism. Basically, Lesnar was destroying Mir the first time and the behemoth is vastly improved since then. Aside from the crucial detail of who actually wins, will it really be so different this time?
Peter Irving
It’s clear what happened in the first fight. Mir assessed Lesnar’s physical type, spotted a chink in his armor and exploited Lesnar’s inexperience to take a hold of his leg. With more training under his belt, the confidence that must come with having dethroned the king Couture and a huge warning sign left over his legs from the original fight, Lesnar must be heavily prepared to defend Mir’s leg submissions.
The question Mir faces is where else is Lesnar vulnerable? His huge neck and arms don’t look prime for submission attempts, especially not from the bottom position. Taking down Lesnar would be a Herculean feat, sweeping him would be difficult even for a jiu-jitsu player of Mir’s caliber, and as yet there is no indication of how Lesnar will react from underneath. Can his barrel of a torso be pinned?
67%
Percentage of high-power strikes Lesnar accurately landed in their first encounter
Lesnar’s hands clearly have power in them, but his striking is still basic. Even with his one-punch knockout power, he still has to land that punch. He’s built for a ‘bash them, tackle them, bash them some more’ style, and is never likely to exceed that strategic model. Mir’s striking has obviously improved, and with his rangy kicks and southpaw stance he poses an awkward target for a novice striker. The tricky screwshot, left-cross, kick combination that worked so well against Minotauro could work beautifully against Lesnar too, providing he can get Brock to stand in front of him. and without being trampled under the stampede of Brock’s takedown.
While Lesnar’s work ethic in the gym is famous and Mir’s is infamous, it is Mir who has the physical potential to last over five rounds. Lesnar is so big that he simply consumes huge amounts of fuel and oxygen. His fight with Herring was contested over three, and he dropped Randy just as the telltale signs of gassing out started to appear. If Mir overcomes his instinct to coast in the gym, and avoids too much punishment early, the later rounds could be his for the taking.
Matt Hughes (43-7-0) vs Matt Serra (9-5-0)
UFC 98, May 23 2009, Las Vegas, Nevada
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
2
Longest number of fights Serra has had between losses in the UFC
7
Number of title defenses Hughes made between 2001 and 2006
4
Season number of TUF of which Serra was welterweight winner
1999
Year in which Hughes made his UFC debut
Andrew Garvey
Back in December 2007 Serra was supposed to defend the UFC welterweight title, which he so shockingly ripped from Georges St-Pierre’s clutches, against bitter rival Hughes. Sharing little beyond a first name and a profession, Hughes and Serra are very, very different people. As opposing coaches, their evident distaste for each other was the highlight of a turgid sixth season of the Ultimate Fighter. Bible-loving country boy Hughes despised Serra’s foul-mouthed TV rants, while the loud New Yorker once memorably described Hughes as ‘a penis’.
60%
Percentage of Serra’s losses that have come via decision
Serra suffered a herniated disc while training for the fight and Hughes took a pasting from GSP in a match for the interim title. Serra went on to face GSP for the ‘real’ title at UFC 83 and, as expected, St Pierre took his title back in dominating fashion. In 2009, neither Hughes nor Serra look to be troubling the top contenders at 170lb and Hughes, aged 35 and coming off three stoppage defeats in his last four fights, looks near the end of the line. Thankfully though, we’ll finally get to see the Hughes-Serra grudge match. Whoever wins, a big fight like this in front of a raucous, sold out Vegas crowd could be a very fitting end to a pair of fine fighting careers, allowing them to concentrate on training future generations.
Peter Irving
Hughes’s trademark ‘pick-up and slam’ hasn’t been seen for some time now, and the southpaw stance that he has adopted has not served to speed up his shot and is likely indicative of a knee injury. His wrestling is still formidable of course, though he has appeared less able to utilize his takedowns. Serra’s boxing range is very short and he is normally happy to clinch. Serra scores most of his takedowns from a tie-up and, although Hughes brings the better wrestling credentials, Serra’s takedowns should not be underestimated. Watch out for his inside trip and single leg attacks.
78.5%
Percentage of fights Hughes has won by TKO or submission
Serra brings the better jiu-jitsu credentials, yet the mat certainly does not offer a clear-cut advantage to the BJJ black belt. Hughes has dominated jiu-jitsu greats like BJ Penn, and has world-class guard passing and finishing skills in addition to tremendous submission defense. Hughes’s guard, like many wrestlers, has never matched his top game. Serra has always had a great game all round, and if any accusation can be leveled at his jiu-jitsu it is that it’s so good that he has never adapted it perfectly for MMA rules. If Serra comes unstuck on the floor it’s generally by way of strikes rather than submissions.
Neither man is what would be considered a natural striker. A knockout on Hughes’s record has thus far eluded him, whereas Serra has proved his punching power against GSP in one of the biggest upsets in UFC history.
Sean Sherk (36-3-1) vs Frankie Edgar (9-1-0)
UFC 98, May 23 2009, Las Vegas, Nevada
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
2
Years that Edgar has been fighting in the UFC
5
Total number of fights Edgar has won by decision
18
Number of fights Sherk had before his first loss
7
Age at which Sherk started wrestling. He had over 400 matches by the time he started fighting MMA
Andrew Garvey
Unlike Hughes and Serra, gifted wrestlers Sherk and Edgar have plenty in common. With similar styles, backgrounds, and exceptional work ethics, they’ve both also picked up ‘Fight of the Night’ bonuses in decision wins over Tyson Griffin, and both have bested Hermes Franca on the judges’ scorecards. But there are plenty of differences that make this such an intriguing fight. Former UFC lightweight champion Sherk is vastly more experienced, entering his eleventh year as a professional fighter. He should also be bigger than Edgar, having spent much of his career at welterweight. That’s particularly worrying for Edgar in the toughest test of his career, since his only loss came against Gray Maynard, a larger wrestler who was able to stifle his furious pace and manhandle him on the mat.
Neither man is a prolific finisher at this level so the judges should pay particularly close attention here. But neither man is likely to tire either, as they both possess frightening stamina and an admirably stubborn will to win at all costs. Expect a close, fast-paced fight that puts the winner in the hunt for a shot at either current lightweight king BJ Penn or his next challenger, Kenny Florian.
Peter Irving
In this battle of wrestlers, Sherk wins out in terms of pure physical presence. Sherk drives straight through his shots, taking his man all the way to the fence from the other side of the octagon. Edgar doesn’t have the same ‘muscled-up’ look about him, but is equally relentless in his takedown attempts. Edgar is perhaps the more technical wrestler, and where Sherk powers through doubles and lifts in straight lines, Edgar uses masses of lateral movement and strings together trips, tackles and lifts of all varieties in unpredictable style.
63.6%
Percentage of fights Sherk has finished by TKO or submission
Sherk’s striking, even down at 155lb, is still hampered by his short reach. His power is evident, but as witnessed in his bout with Penn, when he becomes frustrated he loads up even more, signals his intentions and throws even closer in. Both men are famous for overwhelming their opposition with offensive wrestling. Who proves to be the better defensive wrestler could well be the deciding factor in this match.
