Issue 052
July 2009
Our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own different ways.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert, Peter Irving, breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
Georges St Pierre (18-2-0) vs Thiago Alves (16-3-0)
UFC Welterweight title, UFC 100, July 11 2009, Las Vegas
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
$5,500
Amount Alves was fined for testing positive for an illegal diuretic in 2006.
199
The numbers of strikes GSP landed on BJ Penn’s head during their four-round fight in January 2009.
21
Alves’ age when he made his UFC debut.
25
Combined number of fights they have had in the UFC Octagon.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Running away with the mainstream sports fan-voted Canadian ‘Athlete of the Year’ for 2008, no other MMA fighter on the planet is both as overwhelmingly popular in his home country and equally well-respected by the worldwide MMA community as Georges St Pierre.
The UFC welterweight king is one of the greatest and most gifted fighters in the history of the sport. Yet bizarrely, GSP has only ever made two successful defenses of the 170lb title which so naturally fits him (against Jon Fitch and BJ Penn). His first title reign ended quickly with his utterly shocking April 2007 TKO loss to Matt Serra, but since then, GSP has gone 5-0, beating Josh Koscheck, smashing Serra in a rematch, subbing old foe Matt Hughes and demolishing Fitch and Penn.
Alves, who publicly challenged St Pierre after the obliteration of Hughes (and again after his own decision win over Koscheck) certainly deserves his title shot. But, like anyone facing St Pierre, there’s a very real chance the 25-year-old American Top Team fighter will be regretting his title ambitions. Alves is a truly destructive fighter, boasting ferocious leg kicks and fast, heavy hands and looks destined for UFC title glory at some point in the next few years. But St Pierre is simply an exceptional fighter.
The embarrassingly overblown and painfully drawn-out ‘Greasegate’ scandal aside, the French-Canadian’s complete domination of BJ Penn in January once again demonstrated just how much size matters in modern MMA. For once, St Pierre (who was 187lb by bell-time against Penn) will be significantly smaller than his opponent. Alves is a gargantuan welterweight, likely entering the Octagon on fight night at close to 200lb. Koscheck, who gave St Pierre one of the tougher battles of his career a couple of years ago, looked like a beaten child in there with Alves, particularly in the first and third rounds when the ‘Pitbull’ brutalized him with leg kicks. Alves couldn’t finish Koscheck but his decision win was much wider (and more dominant) than GSP’s.
St Pierre looked phenomenal in his August 2008 win over Jon Fitch. Comprehensively outwrestling and battering a fighter of Fitch’s caliber for a full five rounds is hugely impressive, and it’s a result that should worry Alves since Fitch bashed him to a second-round defeat two years earlier. There’s a few other worries for Alves too. He seemed to tire early in his April 2008 win over Karo Parisyan, and tiring against an athlete as impeccably well conditioned as GSP is a very bad thing.
Alves also had a very tough back-and-forth brawl with Chris Lytle, a highly respected, experienced, quality fighter, but one who is noticeably absent from the top ten rankings. Anyone hoping to dethrone GSP should be laying waste to fighters of Lytle’s standing along the way.
73%
Percentage of career fights GSP has finished inside the distance
Even with Alves’ much-improved takedown defense, amply demonstrated against Hughes and Koscheck, GSP should be able to dictate where the fight takes place. His uncanny ability to take down excellent grapplers like Fitch and Penn suggests that if Alves troubles GSP too much on his feet, then St Pierre always has the very real, very immediate option of taking the fight to the mat. Of course, if Alves catches GSP early and follows up with the kind of murderous intent he showed in his obliteration of Hughes (despite an ankle injury so severe he could barely move in the days before the fight) then Alves could conceivably take the fight, and the title, in impressive, exciting fashion. But the odds are definitely stacked against him.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
With knockout power in both hands and both legs, the ‘Pitbull’ throws every shot with bad intentions. He may well try to slow down GSP’s footwork and takedowns with his vicious right leg kick, but given his short effective reach he may put himself in great danger of being double-legged when he offers up a kick. His takedown defense is superb though, especially for an aggressive pressure fighter. He puts the brakes on his opponent’s takedown attempts with that very pressure, blitzing them with high and low combinations, freeing his legs from their grips with great explosiveness and balance. While Alves has always pushed a hard pace, the five-round title fight is unknown territory for him. St Pierre, on the other hand, performs consistently over a five rounder and paces himself accordingly. Alves, by contrast, only seems to have one gear, and it’s all out.
The champion has shown himself to be as fallible as anyone when it comes to taking a punch, and Alves must be looking to land heavy combinations from the outset. The champion will probably find ways to tire Alves before he stands in front of him and trades, like he did with Penn early on, wearing out his arms in the clinch for the first round, or like the second Serra fight where he shot immediately and worked him over from top position. GSP constantly harasses his opponents from top, even when he can’t find a big power shot – he works short chipping punches to the face to mentally pause them and digs short knees and elbows to the body, pumping the air out of them and stopping them from breathing comfortably. St Pierre’s jab and left kick will probably come into play, moving in and out and striking with unpredictable timing. Watch for the little stutter steps GSP mixes in as he advances before he throws a left kick, left jab or superman right hands.
Michael Bisping (17-1-0) vs Dan Henderson (24-7-0)
UFC 100, July 11, 2009, Las Vegas, Nevada
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
8
Years. Henderson’s age difference over Bisping.
5
Total number of children the two men have (Henderson three, Bisping two).
21
Number of fights Henderson has had in Japan.
2
Titles Henderson held concurrently (Pride light heavyweight and middleweight titles).
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Unbeaten as a middleweight since his narrow 2007 decision loss to now-UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans, Bisping has gone 3-0 and impressed each time. Almost a decade younger than the 39-year-old Henderson, Bisping had a great 2008, smashing Charles McCarthy and Jason Day before outclassing Chris Leben over three rounds. Adept at (and likely intent on) pushing the pace of a fight, Bisping may just have too much energy and striking creativity for Henderson, a hugely experienced fighter who seems to be increasingly more reliant on his excellent wrestling and near-mythical ‘big right hand’ (just three stoppage wins in five years) these days.
Certainly, Henderson is a huge test for the charismatic Englishman, and has shown more than a few flashes of his long-established and respected skills in recent fights, but at his age (and after 12 hard years in the sport) Henderson is hardly a hungry up-and-comer. That said, he pushed Quinton Jackson to the limit and is coming off a pair of decision wins over quality fighters Rousimar Palhares and Rich Franklin. But Henderson seemed exhausted by the second round of the Franklin fight (an extremely close split decision) and looked somewhat flat and lacked any finishing instincts in a comprehensive but safety-first victory over Palhares. With youth on his side, look for Bisping to earn a title shot with the most impressive win of his career.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Henderson has learned and adapted his game like everyone over the course of his career, but ultimately he remains the same proposition as when he first burst on to the scene. Tremendous upper body throws, a virtually incorruptible base, stubborn submission defense and a huge right hand: as formidable a formula now as it was then. Henderson throws that right hand with all the power his body can generate and could knockout pretty much anybody in the game should he connect.
88%
Number of career wins Bisping has finished inside the distance
Bisping is comfortable fighting off the back foot, and his reach advantage could see his punches land after luring Henderson in. Look for Henderson to try to anchor Bisping in with a single collar to prevent him circling away. Henderson, along with Couture and Lindland, practically wrote the book on the dirty boxing / Greco-Roman style of fighting.
Bisping demonstrated a tremendous ability to scramble against Evans, and even if Henderson secures a takedown it could well prove fruitless. Perhaps ‘The Count’s’ greatest quality as a fighter is his self belief, and as yet we have seen no amount of duress too great to dishearten him. Rocked, mounted, taken down – nobody as yet has been able to deliver sufficient pressure to discourage him. Henderson deserves equal credit for sheer grit, but where duress makes Bisping fire back with everything he has, Henderson is apt to grind it out to the finish at the same pace. If Bisping puts himself ahead, he can stay there.
Yoshihiro Akiyama (12-1-0; 1 NC) vs Alan Belcher (14-5-0)
UFC 100, July 11, 2009 Las Vegas, Nevada
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
5-3
Belcher’s win-loss record in the UFC.
7
Number of wins Akiyama has by submission.
'04
Year Akiyama made MMA debut.
4
Inch height advantage Belcher has over Akiyama.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Eyeing up the vibrant South Korean and fading Japanese markets, the UFC signed up one of the region’s most notable fighters in Akiyama. Unfortunately for the judo-steeped metrosexual, his American debut comes on the back of two deeply unimpressive wins, and he’s been stuck in against the very tough Alan Belcher. Akiyama has struggled since his crushing New Year’s Eve 2007 KO defeat (later ruled a no contest due to an illegal soccer kick) to Kazuo Misaki.
85%
Percentage of career wins Belcher has finished inside the distance
Two weeks shy of his 34th birthday on fight night, Akiyama is the older man by nine years and may well be Belcher’s second straight Korean scalp. The ever-improving American outlasted and submitted the highly-touted Denis Kang (Akiyama also beat Kang, by KO in 2007) in January and may just have the physical tools, energy and striking skills to beat Akiyama handily. Already a seasoned UFC veteran with eight fights under his belt and more total career fights than Akiyama, Belcher is used to the cage while Akiyama has only ever fought in a ring and has never had to deal with elbows on the ground either. This could be a very difficult, not to mention painful, evening for Akiyama.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Belcher is a skilled Thai boxer, with a good clinch game and tidy kicks. Belcher’s courage under fire is admirable, but he is sometimes too happy to cover up and take a punch without firing back. His toughness is unswerving though and, as demonstrated against Kang, even when he is down on the scorecards he is always looking for a chance to finish, and therefore cannot be counted out until the final bell. ‘The Talent’s’ talent is evident, but tends to manifest as total competence punctuated by flashes of brilliance. When those moments of inspiration are likely to strike is anyone’s guess.
How Akiyama will fair in the cage is a big unknown, and how his judo will work minus the friction of his gi is likewise yet to be seen. Like all judo fighters transitioning to no-gi, the results will either be spectacular or spectacularly bad. His striking is courageous, but rudimentary as yet. Expect him to answer back gamely but rush to a clinch. His submission game is basic but highly effective, although once again the lack of kimono will affect his style, especially given his preference for straight armbars.
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