Issue 034

February 2008

By Jim Burman

My personal favourite fighter to watch in 2007 was Clay Guida. Despite having fought professionally since 2003 ‘The Carpenter’ didn’t appear on my radar until The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) 72. When his bout was booked with Tyson Griffin it was anticipated by people ‘in the know’ but few would suspect it would go on to become a contender for fight of the year. Of course, Guida lost this match. In fact, Guida lost 3 of the 4 bouts that he had in 2007. Just reading these facts you certainly wouldn’t think that he looks like a contender for being someone’s favourite fighter.

The world of sports is dominated by statistics – goals scored, runs hit, yards ran and so on. As mixed martial arts (MMA) continues to move into the mainstream consciousness, statistics start to become more prevalent in the sport. But do they really help fans understand a fighter’s ability to both compete and entertain?

The most instant statistic in MMA is a fighter’s win / loss record. It’s a snapshot of their career in simple figures illustrating how good they are as a combatant, right? Except in 2007 Clay Guida’s win loss record was 1-3. If you define ‘good’ as ability to win, then the record retains some of its value. If you define ‘good’ as entertaining, then the record is pointless. The truth is that in his fight with Huerta, Guida was all over the young upstart, pushing the action and making an entertaining spectacle of the bout until he got caught in the third. He may have lost, but it was the manner in which he lost which remains with the fans that saw the bout – something which is not represented by his win / loss record.

Then there’s the judges’ decisions. How many times in the last 18 months has the scoring criteria of MMA been debated? The flippant and trite response is usually “don’t leave it in the hands of the judges”, but the practical truth is that some fights are evenly matched to end within the allowed time and you’re open to the interpretation of scoring criteria. Fighters’ records will be affected by ‘questionable’ and long-debated decisions.

The win / loss record is also used by the athletic commissions to asses whether a bout is evenly matched (and subsequently ‘safe’). Thankfully it is not the only criteria that they check – if a fight appears to be a mismatch on paper, such as the Sokoudjou / Machida example given by Keith Kizer in the last issue, they check further into a fighter’s background before approving it.

One of MMA’s main appeals is the huge potential for variety – if I watch boxing I know someone’s going to get punched, in judo I expect someone to get thrown, but with MMA I could get either or even a combination of the two plus more. However, this can also affect how you assess fighters and bouts at a glance. Fans still play the ‘fighter triangle’ game, claiming that because combatants have fought a common opponent with different outcomes it will affect the outcome of their fight. 

For example, Dan Henderson dropped a decision to Rampage after knocking out Wanderlei Silva earlier in 2007, but Rampage has been decisively beaten twice by the Brazilian.

A fighter’s record is also down to who he has fought – some fights are just bad style match-ups for certain guys. While we’re currently enjoying the emergence of true mixed martial artists (fighters who are good at everything ala GSP) most fighters still have specific strengths and weaknesses.

New technology allows us to see how many strikes a fighter has thrown and landed in a round, as well as clocking up takedowns and more, but what does this really tell us? Can the technology measure the effectiveness of the strike? MMA isn’t amateur boxing or semi contact karate, but at least it can give you some idea of the balance of techniques fighters have used in past matches.

How can fans learn about a fighter’s ability without insightful statistics? Unfortunately, MMA will continue to be an anomaly in that there is currently no ‘quick fix’ way of learning about fighters. Short of watching a lot of fight shows, you’re probably best leaving it to the experts and promoters to fill you in. Just sit back and enjoy what happens bell to bell – that’s the only thing that really matters anyway. As legendary UK journeyman Paul Jenkins once said, “Records are for DJs, fights are for fighters.”