Issue 053
August 2009
Our resident experts preview three upcoming fights in their own different ways.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the bigger picture. What are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold for them? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert, Peter Irving, breaks down the strategic and tactical considerations.
BJ Penn (13-5-1) vs Kenny Florian (11-3-0)
UFC lightweight title: UFC 101, August 8 2009, Wachovia Center
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
2000
Year that BJ Penn was awarded his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
4
Weight divisions in which Penn has fought (light, welter, middle and light heavyweight).
34
Months since Florian’s last loss (October 2006).
7
Number of title fights Penn has participated in.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
A few years ago, anyone who had suggested Florian would be a good opponent for Penn (much less a dangerous challenger with a very real chance of winning the fight) might have been deemed beyond all help. An expert BJJ stylist, the only other thing Florian seemed to have going for him were some sharp elbows, but much has changed since 2005.
‘KenFlo’ has lost just once in the last four years – a lop-sided five round decision in a gory trench war with Sean Sherk for the revived UFC lightweight title. Since then, Florian (who most expected Sherk to annihilate) has improved dramatically. Even against Sherk, Florian displayed uncommon tenacity, but since then he’s added so much more to his arsenal.
Like Penn, Florian’s physique has changed radically thanks to a new conditioning regime, but the most striking thing about his current six-fight winning streak is his striking. Schooled by the hugely respected Mark Dellagrotte, Florian has turned into a superb MMA striker, both on his feet and on the ground. Florian’s leg kicks were a major factor in his dominant win over Dokonjonosuke Mishima and his ground ‘n pound was truly ferocious in his wins over Alvin Robinson and Joe Lauzon. Most recently, Florian showed just how far he’s come since his time on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter, obliterating Joe Stevenson more quickly and even more dominantly than Penn did earlier in the year.
While Florian has been improving at a frenetic pace, Penn simply hasn’t. There are a few reasons for that, the first and most important being that he’s been a phenomenal fighter since at least 2003 or 2004 (when he destroyed Takanari Gomi, Matt Hughes and Duane Ludwig). But Penn has often seemed to sit back, lazily reliant on his abundant skill and natural ability, neglecting to put in the necessary hard work. That seemed to change after his 2006 loss to Hughes. Whether injury or fatigue related (and the truth is, it was probably a hefty slice of both), Penn was laying waste to Hughes until the third-round where he was bashed to defeat.
After that, Penn returned to the lightweight division he left after the Gomi fight. Rededicated and physically transformed, a trim Penn looked incredible in obliterating old foe Jens Pulver and an overmatched Joe Stevenson (for the vacant title) by submission. But in many ways, his third round TKO win over Sean Sherk was even more impressive. Showcasing his impeccable takedown defense and neatly destructive kickboxing, Penn dominated Sherk, particularly with his jab, and finished him off at the end of the third round. But then, as he’s done so many times in his career, Penn stepped outside his natural weight class, this time to challenge UFC Welterweight champion Georges St Pierre. Penn was manhandled, worn down, taken down, humbled on the mat and just battered to defeat. In the aftermath, the embarrassingly drawn-out ‘greasegate’ controversy reached its ludicrous peak when Penn’s mother read a statement to the NSAC that GSP was a nasty cheater and the whole thing was deeply unfair to her baby boy.
77%
Percentage of fights Penn has stopped inside the distance
Hopefully Penn has put the entire fiasco behind him, but no-one really knows how much damage the fight and its fallout did to Penn physically, mentally and emotionally. He’s talked of retirement at times, and if he’s lost focus or lost his passion for the sport then he could be in serious trouble with Florian. Few top-level MMA fights pit two such acclaimed grapplers against each other as this, the second defense of Penn’s 155lb title. Both are highly regarded Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts and both are exceptionally dangerous on the ground, but this fight may be decided by what happens on their feet and in their heads. Penn is just over a year removed from one of the finest performances of his career against Sherk, but Florian is clearly desperate to win the title. If he’s so much more motivated than Penn, he could be poised to pull off a major upset.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Florian’s southpaw stance and fast lateral footwork make him a hard-to-hit target, especially early in the fight. St Pierre essentially laid down the blueprint to out-striking Penn by waiting until his arms tired before trading. Florian, never one to engage recklessly too early in any encounter, may well follow a similar model and spend the early portion of the match chipping away at BJ and moving away and side to side, or tying up and attempting to neutralize Penn in the same fashion as he dealt with the early pressure from Joe Stevenson. Florian tends to warm in to fights nicely, and as his opposition starts to flag he feeds on that and picks up his pace. If BJ can’t dominate early and take Florian out of his rhythm, KenFlo will probably be the one to dictate the pace of the match.
Penn’s hand skills are very sophisticated, and he can cause serious damage with seemingly glancing blows. Florian, on the other hand, has a more versatile arsenal of attacks; look for him to control the range with the left body kick coming from the back leg, or break away with his famous elbows.
Although he may have been out-muscled by GSP, BJ is still tremendously dangerous, and one small slip, whether standing or on the mat, could prime him to unleash one of his blistering attacks that put away Sherk and Stevenson. Florian, in spite of his much-improved strength and conditioning, is of course a 155lb fighter, and doesn’t cut the same imposing physical figure as St Pierre, or Hughes in his heyday. He can’t realistically hope to physically dominate Penn in the same fashion as the welterweights.
Anderson Silva (24-4-0) vs Forrest Griffin (16-5-0)
UFC 101, August 8 2009, Wachovia Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
'05
Year in which Griffin won the first season of TUF.
'00
Year Silva made his MMA debut.
9
Successive wins Silva holds in the UFC Octagon.
1
Inch height advantage Griffin has over Silva.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
At first glance, this is a truly inspired piece of matchmaking and one of the very, very few marketable Silva fights on the horizon. Putting the fearless TUF1 winner Griffin in the Octagon should finally force Silva to tear up the secret non-aggression treaty he seemed to have signed in advance of his reputation-killing title defenses against Patrick Cote and Thales Leites.
Surely Griffin is just the man to force Silva to do what he claims he wants to do – actually fight and entertain the fans? Maybe, maybe not. Ignore Griffin’s amiable village-idiot gimmick. The 30-year-old former UFC Light Heavyweight champion is a very smart fighter. He won’t just go charging headlong after one of the slickest and most elusive counter-fighters on the planet. Besides, Griffin is coming off the December 2008 TKO loss of his title to Rashad Evans, and the last time he returned from a stoppage defeat (a first-round loss to Keith Jardine) Griffin was uncommonly cautious in a decision win over the fairly ordinary Hector Ramirez. He surely won’t relish the thought of another loss here, even though it would do little to dent his reputation or popularity.
Whatever the outcome, if it’s dull, people will forgive Griffin but won’t be nearly so kind to Silva. Anything less than a devastating showing from the Brazilian simply won’t be good enough. Expect Griffin to fight in a controlled but still aggressive manner where, over three non-title rounds at light heavyweight, he might just sneak a decision win over the laid back UFC middleweight champion.
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
As a middleweight, Silva generally has inches of reach advantage, but that advantage disappears against the huge frame of Forrest Griffin, which is imposing even for a light-heavyweight. Silva’s takedown defense, like all tall and skinny fighters, has never been the sharpest part of his game. He is often content to conserve his energy and go to his guard, safe in the knowledge that his long legs and body can keep his head well away from the effective striking range of the man on top. That could change with the extra reach and weight of Griffin’s gigantic 205lb frame.
75%
Silva’s finishing rate
Griffin’s ‘take one to give one’ style doesn’t stack up perfectly against the Spider’s skillful and evasive movement, but pressure to engage after his disappointing last two outings might force Silva’s hand and let Forrest in. Forrest’s style is predicated on his punch resistance and willingness to soak up punishment. While Silva’s power may be less telling at 205lb, his accuracy is still impeccable and if he raises his work rate the middleweight speed could allow him to outwork Griffin on the outside. Silva’s chin has hardly been tested thanks to his superior evasive movement and strong tie-ups, so we’ve never really seen him get hit flush by a middleweight. How well he can absorb Griffin’s punching power is an interesting unknown.
Randy Couture (16-9-0) vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1)
UFC 102, August 29 2009, Rose Garden, Portland, Oregon
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
21
Number of fights Minotauro had in Pride.
15
Number of UFC title fights Couture has been part of.
20
Number of career submission wins for Nogueira.
13
Year age difference between Couture (46) and Nogueira (33).
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Looking at both men it seems almost impossible to believe Couture is 13 years older than ‘Minotauro’. The Brazilian may only be 33 but, worryingly, the former Pride FC heavyweight champion sometimes looks like a man in his 50s. Beloved for his ability to absorb tremendous punishment in his heyday, Nogueira looks to be a mere shell of his former self. All those beatings, even in fights he came back to win, have taken a very visible toll.
Couture has never taken those kind of sustained beatings, and while he has a few more TKO or KO losses on his record (six in total) he may be happier in the long run that he never had to absorb punches, knees and kicks the way Nogueira used to. Both are coming off emphatic TKO defeats (Couture to the monstrous Brock Lesnar and Nogueira to a shockingly good Frank Mir).
Giving up so much size and strength, Couture’s performance against Lesnar was more than creditable, while Nogueira’s against Mir was just sad to watch. Both men are past their prime but they will likely show flashes of brilliance in what looks likely to be a slow-paced fight where the winner will be determined by whoever comes in with the fewest injuries and generally fights like the younger man on the night. Probably Couture, then.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
The debate about how long Randy can continue to defy the aging process and turn in world-class performances has gone on for so long that it has become old in itself. Now that Minotauro is prone to the same speculation, prematurely aged by his hard career, speculation about how their skill sets match up has changed significantly from the ‘dream’ match it would have been five years or more ago.
Minotauro’s once sharp boxing appears blunted as his reactions slow down and his eyesight allegedly fails. The Brazilian’s slower footwork and head movement play to Couture’s strengths for fighting on the inside.
57%
Percentage of fights Couture has finished inside the distance
Couture’s Greco skills are still unsurpassed, and given Nogueira’s predilection for dropping to guard it is likely we’ll see the fight go to this position. Passing Nogueira’s guard is no mean feat, so we’ll see Randy try to press him against the fence and follow the Fedor-approved plan of avoiding the submission and working ground ‘n pound.
It’s been famously observed that Minotauro doesn’t lose fights, he just runs out of time to win them. Over three rounds, the chances of Randy tiring to the point where he falls into a submission are minimal. Couture’s stamina is sure to outlast the Brazilian’s, and the cage is always a friend of Couture. Sitting inside the guard trading punches for sub attempts will score for Couture. Minotauro’s hope is to catch Randy by maintaining his distance and trading on the outside, or sweeping Randy and keeping him on his back.
