Issue 211

November 2024

From strawweight to bantamweight, Kyle Dimond reveals how the patterns in men’s MMA have influenced the cycles defining the women’s side of the sport.

Decades of men’s MMA have given us plenty to analyze, but how does the women’s game stack up? When examining the three female weight classes in the UFC, recurring patterns have emerged, shaping this side of the sport in familiar ways. At strawweight and bantamweight, Ronda Rousey and Joanna Jędrzejczyk dominated like they had cheat codes—each powered by a specialist skill set that rewrote the rules. The next era was ushered in by three women: Amanda Nunes, Rose Namajunas, and Valentina Shevchenko, who would become flyweight champion, raising the bar for women’s MMA and spinning it into highlight reels. In the present day, these three champions have all created long-lasting effects on their divisions, with one not being in the same weight class anymore, one only recently reclaiming the belt, and the other riding off into the sunset. But how do they compare to the men’s division? With insights from Julie Kedzie - MMA trailblazer and master matchmaker in the women’s divisions - we uncover the secret parallels between the men’s division and how it’s shaping the evolution of UFC’s three female weight classes.

STRAWWEIGHT - WAITING FOR AN EQUAL

Weili Zhang’s two fights against Rose Namajunas set a benchmark for this division. Like the trilogy of fights between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, both women were the best in their weight class. However, for how great Weili has proven herself to be in her second title reign, she could not beat Namajunas. Holloway’s featherweight reign was pure fire, but Volkanovski showed up with a storm cloud and made ‘Blessed’ look a little weathered. When Zhang’s former foe moved up a weight class, it seemed obvious that Weili would dominate similarly. She’s already beaten three of the top five at 115 pounds and has looked dominant, making fans yearn for the emergence of a new ‘Thug’ Rose who could push her. Currently, two contenders initially set to meet at UFC 310, stand out: Virna Jandiroba, whose struggles have come inside the cage, and Tatiana Suarez, whose biggest fight has been getting past the walkout music. 

Khamzat Chimaev has had a similar path in the UFC as a dominant force, which many expected to become champion in no time. He’s got champion written all over him, with an alpha aura so intense you’d consider jaywalking to the other side of the street just to avoid it. Like Chimaev did at UFC 308, Suarez may only need one big win to restore the feeling. In this scenario, Jandiroba’s path may be more similar to someone like Nassourdine Imavov, who is beginning to make enough noise that it’s impossible to call them the dark horse of the division anymore. They’re total opposites as one contender whose career could detonate at any moment while the other has undergone a covert ops coup to become a top threat.

STRAWS THAT BREAK CAMEL’S BACKS

Zhang defending her title against Suarez would be one of the best fights in the division's history. However, MMA is all gas - no breaks or patience. Fight fans were frothing for years to see the two seemingly unbeatable men's lightweights, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson, collide. There were endless debates about whether ‘El Cucuy’ would be the kryptonite to the undefeated super Dagestani. However, after constant pushbacks, Justin Gaethje eventually shattered the dream and Ferguson’s boogeyman-like reputation.

Equally, Julie Kedzie made her MMA debut in 2004, and before ending her career in the UFC nine years later, she faced many of the top names that kickstarted women’s MMA. Since then, she has played a crucial role in the evolution of the sport as a commentator and matchmaker for Invicta FC, MMA’s leading all-female promotion. She believes that though Zhang, Suarez, and Jandiroba might be the top three, this isn’t set in stone.

"The only predictable thing about MMA is that it's unpredictable,” Kedzie told Fighters Only. “When we think about these fighters who are kind of in a class of their own within a weight class, you have to look at how other people are built and how promotions are building those divisions. Each of those fighters possesses very unique weaknesses but I do think there are fighters out there that could, with the right build-up, actually pose challenges for each one of them. When we see fighters at the top of the division who seem unbeatable and just have to be paired off, you do see when they're paired up with other people that, though they may still win, you can kind of see where the trends are gonna happen, where they're beatable."

Suarez may well be the equal that Zhang is waiting for. Still, Jandiroba, amongst other contenders like Yan Xiaonan, is growing as a legitimate challenger, and the sport is waiting for this romantic narrative to conclude. 

FLYWEIGHT - A REVOLUTION LED BY AN UPSET

Flyweight received a shot of adrenaline when Alexa Grasso submitted Valentina Shevchenko to end her dominant title reign at UFC 285. Shevchenko would close out the trilogy by winning the belt back this September, but while Grasso was locked in her crosshairs, the division sneakily assembled a hit squad of fresh contenders. Shevchenko hates losing, and this drive saw her reverse what appeared to be changing tides. She did it while being the world’s most badass ballerina. 

"I think female flyweight is an insanely exciting division,” says Kedzie. “It's not stale when you have a dominant champion necessarily because then you're looking around at who's gonna dethrone them, but then you also see people have brilliant performances on an undercard, and you're like, well, they're not ready, but they get thrown in too fast.”

With Natalia Silva, Maycee Barber, and Erin Blanchfield, you have three top-five-ranked contenders who are 27, 26 and 25 years old. At the top of all of them, you have the next contender in Manon Fiorot, who, during Shevchenko’s trilogy with Grasso, has proven herself to be the best of the bunch right now by beating the likes of Blanchfield and Namajunas. 

FLYING UNDER THE RADAR

This Grasso and Shevchenko beef can be compared to the UFC’s only quadrilogy in men’s flyweight between Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo. Moreno, like Grasso, emerged out of nowhere as a serious player in the division. While they went to war, the rankings played Tetris, slotting in up-and-comers, old-schoolers, and one fighter who refused to vanish like the perfect piece in a bad spot. 

When the dust settled between Moreno and Figueiredo, Alexandre Pantoja was in a similar position to Manon Fiorot. Like a vengeful spirit, he made the other contenders wish he’d exorcised his demons sooner. Fiorot is now poised to do the same, but we’ve already seen from Shevchenko that though she isn’t unbeatable, her stubborn will to win hasn’t gone anywhere. After proving herself to be the best of her era, Valentina Shevchenko now sits atop a division full of fighters who have watched and studied her minor weaknesses for years.

Following the conclusion of the Moreno versus Figueiredo quadrilogy, the men’s 125-pound division has built a mansion in the spotlight it receives. In 2023, Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi became the first flyweights to receive the main event for a non-title fight in six years (Pettis vs Moreno). In 2024, the men’s flyweight division has headlined six events and produced some of the fights of the year. The women’s flyweight division has had three main events in 2024, meaning that out of 40 UFC headlining bouts in 2024 at the start of December, nine have been at 125 pounds. With the likes of Shevchenko, Fiorot, Grasso, Namajunas, Blanchfield, and Barber all being main event level, the female division will also receive a welcome boost in the next 12 months, and this is a good thing for all of MMA. 

FLYING OVER THE RADAR

For a long time, flyweight was painted in fifty shades of meh. It wasn’t exciting enough. There weren’t enough finishes. Interest was thin. The men’s flyweights' dull reputation is dead thanks to some classic fights in recent years. Women’s flyweight could do the same for the small (minded) section of fight fans that throw the same criticisms at the female side of the sport by having exciting contenders produce an unparalleled work rate. The biggest argument for lightweight being the best division in MMA is that it combines the smaller divisions' speed, output, and technical ability with heavier fighters' power and finish rate. Flyweight should be the perfect cocktail – strawweight speed stirred with bantamweight power – but all divisions have a natural rhythm. 

"Some of it is the social trend of looking at a certain weight class,” says Kedzie. “Some of it is maybe that weight class hasn't matured or the people within that weight class, the ages and the physical attributes haven't quite melded for a group of people at the same time. I do think that there is always going to be a spotlight on one weight class over another weight class at different times."  

BANTAMWEIGHT - CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE 

For a long time, that top spot that Kedzie speaks about has belonged to the bantamweight group. She recalls a time before the UFC embraced women when the 135-pound division carried the torch and hit the Octagon running when the doors opened. Where strawweight may have stalled and flyweight evolved, bantamweight seems stuck between them. Unlike the two smaller weight classes, Amanda Nunes left the division last year, and this power vacuum saw multiple contenders scrambling to fill it. Many of the top names at 135 pounds had already fought each, and newer faces like Mayra Bueno Silva weren’t quite ready to step into the limelight.

Since Nunes’ departure, Raquel Pennington and Julianna Peña have held the title, but both, in some ways, have felt like placeholders. Fight fans have already seen Nunes smash both women to pieces, so a UFC title fight for second best doesn’t move tickets as must-watch TV. The division has Nunes' shadow looming over it and needs new blood. Fortunately, a new presence arrived in former PFL star Kayla Harrison. Her energy has replaced the aura that disappeared with Nunes, just like an enigmatic Czech samurai helped a division move on from the GOAT. 

FILLING THE VOID

In Jon Jones’ absence, the light heavyweight division became more competitive, but it felt like a runners-up competition. This changed when Jiří Procházka signed with the promotion and, in three fights, changed the division by taking out all the names attempting to muscle in on the Jon Jones-shaped hole left behind. His fight with the surging Alex Pereira was the match-up we all wanted to see. Harrison may have the same impact, and fans can dream about her luring Nunes out of retirement for one final chapter that thrusts bantamweight back at the top of the pecking order. Like Rousey and Nunes, male fighters twice her size would think twice before locking horns.

"There are waves,” says Kedzie. “It ebbs and flows with which division is gonna have the most exciting champion versus contender fight and what's gonna have contender versus contender or a building fight,” Kedzie states. "That doesn't mean you can't get great fights between well-matched fighters that aren't ready for that and build them towards it. Now, who the champion fights? That's hard, but that's also not my problem. There is a lot of talent at bantamweight, but it is kind of building talent."

BATTLE OF THE 

Every fighter and match-up is different from the next, but there are always similarities and parallels in combat sports that tend to repeat themselves, and what reason is there to study history if not to learn from it? Despite the similarities, women’s MMA is on its own path. Though the unpredictability of the sport is its appeal, there are only so many outcomes when two people step inside a cage, creating recurring narratives and cycles. The dominant champion and the contender who could at strawweight. A tried and tested veteran amongst hungry challengers at flyweight. Last but not least, a whole kingdom waiting to be seized at bantamweight. Make enough noise, and you might wake up the sleeping lioness, which is good for all of MMA. As the cycles of champions and challengers continue, the women’s division proves that its unpredictability isn’t a flaw - it’s its greatest strength.