Issue 134
November 2015
Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit
Few matchups in MMA right now can set pulses racing quite like the welterweight title fight between champion Robbie Lawler and challenger Carlos Condit. It offers up the very best of what the sport has to offer. Both men boast limitless cardio, a propensity for spilling blood and chilling one-punch KO power.
With 35 knockouts between them, ‘Ruthless’ vs. ‘The Natural Born Killer’ is likely to become a striking battle for the ages. It’s unlikely these two will be grappling for position when they finally face off. So FO spoke to three men who specialize in attributes more relevant to the next title fight at 170lb and get the lowdown on who they think is likely to emerge with the 12 pounds of gold around their waist after a contest that has ‘Fight of the Night’ written all over it.
Strength & Conditioning
Jake Bonacci
Both men need the gas for a five-round fight, so the Blackzilians’ S&C coach assesses their stamina
“Both of them are very well conditioned and have fantastic gas tanks, but Robbie’s ability to carry his power is going to be the difference in this fight. Robbie has shown a few times now that he can go a hard five rounds and still maintain power in his strikes. Look at what he just did against Rory MacDonald. He took whatever Rory threw at him and gave it back until he was able to finish him.
“The power that he carries, he’s able to hold it for five rounds and Condit doesn’t have that same ability. Condit can certainly fight five rounds, but he won’t knock Robbie out in the later rounds, whereas I believe Robbie could finish him in the fifth just as easily as he could in the first round.
“To prepare someone to be that dangerous for the full five, five-minute rounds takes a lot of work. Firstly, you need to get them up to the appropriate volume they’ll need to go for five rounds. It’s all about increasing the intensity. A 25-minute conditioning workout needs the volume set first before then increasing the intensity. It’s a real science in itself. Once you get the volume and you increase the intensity properly, which you should do all the way up until the fight so the athlete peaks around the week of the fight.
“Although I don’t think Carlos will win, if he was going to, I could see him winning via something crazy, like a kick or a knee because I can see him landing something like that. If he could somehow get the fight to the floor, a submission isn’t out of the realm of possibilities either. He’s got very good submissions as we’ve seen in a bunch of his other fights. However, I’m going to have to go with Robbie. He’s just looked too good in every area as of late.”
Winner: ROBBIE LAWLER
Striking
Steven Wright
A man who’s cornered against both Lawler and Condit as Johny Hendricks’ striking coach
“Stylistically, Condit is a hit and hold guy. He stays in the pocket. He’s not a big footwork guy who’s going to throw from different angles. He’s there to be hit because he’s going to walk you down to get his offense off.
“For Robbie, he’s got a guy who he knows isn’t going to go for a takedown and is going to stay in the pocket with him. It’s going to be a battle and Robbie loves to get in exchanges.
“The thing about Condit is he figures things out as the fight goes on. If you look at his last fight, Thiago Alves would let Condit throw a little bit of offense and then he would come back with a combination followed by a low kick. I thought we were going to get five rounds of this, but then Condit figured out that he needed to throw one more strike after each of his combinations.
“So if Alves was waiting on him to start throwing, he was going to throw an extra shot. He threw a combination, like he’d been doing all fight, where he unloaded a series of strikes as he walks in, but instead of finishing the combination he added the lead elbow that put Alves in trouble.
“Robbie can definitely be hit and no matter what’s going on, Condit will look for opportunities to land strikes. That’s what you always need to look out for with him because even if he isn’t landing consistently, or even if you’re a good enough athlete where you can land power shots and keep him at bay, he’ll figure it out and score something that’ll land you in a lot of trouble.
“Robbie’s chin is pretty damn good though. He’s ready to bite down on his mouthpiece and exchange with anybody in the world. He’s going to stay in the pocket and look for shots. He throws low kicks sometimes, but Robbie definitely wants to make this a battle of who’s going to throw the meaner shots. And I believe Condit’s willingness to exchange will get him into trouble eventually.”
Winner: ROBBIE LAWLER
Power
Chris Lytle
All-action former UFC welterweight who went to war with a young Lawler in the Octagon in 2003
“This has ‘great fight’ written all over it. Fans should expect it to be fairly similar to Lawler’s last fight. I see Condit being very active during the fight, as he throws a lot of punches and kicks from different angles. He’s not a big takedown guy so I don’t see it going to the ground very much.
“This is going to be a coin-toss between volume and power. Lawler definitely has the power and he’s gotten so much better over the last couple of years. He’s become very precise and very accurate with how he wants to throw his punches and kicks. You can’t throw as many when you’re throwing them with that sort of power, so he’s a little more selective with how and when he throws.
“The main problem for Condit is going to be that power and, just like fans saw with Lawler’s last fight (against Rory MacDonald), five rounds is a long time to constantly get hit with shots like that. It’s the same thing for Lawler, because Carlos is going to throw so many punches and kicks from odd angles. There might be some different things Carlos does so I wouldn’t be surprised if Robbie gets caught with a few of them.
“I don’t know if Condit has the power to take Lawler out because he’s an extremely tough individual. We’re going to see an excellent fight and there’s going to be a ton of fireworks going off. It’ll be very technical but quite wild at the same time.
“I’d put my money on Lawler to win, although it’s far from clear cut. It wouldn’t surprise me if Condit won, especially after his last performance. He’s a very technical and formidable opponent. If they fought 100 times, I guess Robbie wins 55 times and Carlos wins 45. It’s that close.”
Winner: ROBBIE LAWLER
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