Issue 067
November 2010
FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts.
First, Andrew Garvey takes a look at the story behind the fight: what are the career implications for the competitors? What’s their state of mind going into the bout and what might victory hold? Next, Fighters Only’s technique expert Peter Irving breaks down the athletic and tactical considerations.
Quinton Jackson (30-8-0) vs Lyoto Machida (16-1-0)
UFC 123, November 20 2010
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
1st
Both Jackson and Machida have first-round losses to ‘Shogun’ Rua. Although Jackson lasted one minute and 12 seconds longer, Machida persevered though a full 25-minute brawl with Rua seven months before.
56%
Percentage of Machida wins that were the result of a decision.
357*
Machida has landed 357 successful strikes in his UFC career.
76%*
Percentage of takedowns ‘Rampage’ has avoided in his UFC career.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
When talk first surfaced that ‘Rampage’ had been offered a fight with equally short-lived UFC light heavyweight champion Machida, Jackson was reluctant. Stating that he didn’t want another boring fight after his disappointing grudge match with Rashad Evans sounded to many like code for, ‘I don’t want to fight someone else faster than me.’ But soon enough Jackson agreed to face one of the most unique fighters on the UFC roster and may wake up on November 21st regretting it.
Two of the very best fighters in the world, Jackson and Machida managed a successful UFC title defense each. Jackson’s UFC 75 win over Dan Henderson was hard-earned, whereas Machida’s UFC 104 victory over Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua was extremely subjective. Rua set the record straight seven months later at UFC 113, blitzing Machida and battering him to his first career defeat. Less than six months on, how will Machida react to this brutal exposure of his ‘Machida Karate’ as he returns to action? Rampage has bounced back from losses before, but it’s a new experience for Machida. He’s demonstrated he’s far from being the unbeatable enigma many tagged him as after his crushing 2009 wins over Thiago Silva and Rashad. However, after a turbulent 2009/10 where Jackson has battled injuries, turned in a woeful stint as TUF coach, publicly fallen out with UFC president Dana White, announced his retirement, eaten his way north of 250lb and starred in a hit film only to turn his back on Hollywood and declare acting “gay”, will he really be properly focused on delivering inside the Octagon?
With champion Rua sidelined by a knee injury and number one contender Evans sensibly sitting out until his promised title shot, this is one of the most important 205lb fights on the horizon. Both Jackson and Machida are widely considered to occupy their weight class’ top five. After this fight one of them will be 0-2 for the year while the other one is more likely facing another shot at Rua (Shogun gave Jackson a beating in their 2005 Pride FC bout) or Evans (Machida outclassed him to win the belt at UFC 98) with the title up for grabs. This is a top-flight clash pitting Jackson’s power punching and wrestling versus Machida’s speed and unorthodox style, for very high stakes. Machida has dabbled in direct offense during recent outings. But if utilizing his reflex-based, safety-first, point-amassing frustration tactics ‘The Dragon’ should tire, frustrate and widely decision the bigger, stronger, more straightforward Jackson in a fight that will please purists but might leave some of the audience cold.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Rampage’s boxing stance, with his hips facing towards the opponent, looks about as different as could be from Machida, with his deep side-on karate stance, arms outreaching.
Rampage generally lands his best work in close range, slipping and rolling as he covers with his elbows and forearms and counters with hooks, uppercuts and straights in tight combinations. With Machida’s flighty in-out footwork, fast kicks and lunging punches, the Brazilian’s style will be hard to counter in this fashion. Rampage struggled for two whole rounds to catch Rashad Evans, who utilized a similar style of in-out movement, speed and alternating stance to that we see from Machida. The key for Jackson is to either make Machida commit and trade, or eat up his space and leave him nowhere to run – no easy task in the expansive UFC octagon.
39% - Percentage of ‘Rampage’ losses that have come via decision
Where many fighters shy away from kicking for fear of the takedown, Machida leads with kicks and kick/knee combinations, relying on his timing and movement and an excellent intuition for when the shoot will come. Rampage heavily favors his hands, and on the rare occasions he lets his kicks go he tends to target the legs. Machida masterfully marries his striking with that unique blend of judo, wrestling and Thai-style throws, plus seamless kick, punch, tackle or trip combinations. Although Rampage is a dangerous top position player, he’s looked hopelessly lost on his back at times. He struggled beneath the mount against Forrest Griffin (UFC 86), although his scrambling and wall walking from beneath cross-body is excellent (see his bouts vs Evans at UFC 114 and Henderson at UFC 75). In the clinch and against the fence Rampage’s takedown defense is impeccable; even cage takedown specialist Evans struggled, finding success when shooting from the outside after an exchange. One of Machida’s well-timed takedowns could potentially spell disaster for the American. Machida often lands his takedown when already past the guard. From there he pins superbly while maintaining activity with both strikes and submission hunts. With both men having strong, aggressive top games, whoever establishes top position could dictate the fight. It has been a long time since Rampage used the offensive wrestling skills that were once the cornerstone of his fighting style, but Machida is sometimes over-eager on the mat in a way he never is on his feet, and occasionally sacrifices his position when looking for a finish.
Matt Brown (11-9-0) vs Rory MacDonald (10-1-0 )
UFC 123, November 20 2010
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
7
Despite Brown being MacDonald’s elder by eight years, ‘The Immortal’ only began his professional MMA career 7 days before MacDonald.
10*
Brown’s tried ten submissions in his UFC career. He’s been tapped out seven times by foes though never been finished with strikes.
14
MacDonald was only 14 years old when he started training MMA.
0
Rory MacDonald has never had a fight go to the judges and has visited the third round only twice in his 11-fight history.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Perhaps fighting for his UFC survival, no-nonsense TUF 7 hardman Brown takes on 21-year-old Canadian prodigy MacDonald in what looks like a very tough match for both men. 0-2 in his last two outings, Brown’s suffered a pair of submission defeats to Chris Lytle and Ricardo Almeida. Seemingly feared by all during his TUF stint, Brown has an ordinary record: 13-9 overall (4-3 inside the Octagon), and, while he’s undoubtedly tough and improving, he’s an unexceptional all-rounder. By contrast, MacDonald is brimming with potential and appears to have a very bright future. Debuting at just 16, the former lightweight’s already in his sixth year as a professional fighter and has never gone the distance in amassing an impressive 10-1 record. After he arm barred Mike Guymon in his UFC debut, MacDonald battled Carlos Condit at UFC 115, hurting the former WEC welterweight champion numerous times before finally wilting under a late third-round onslaught. A combination of fatigue, the cumulative effect of punishment and simple inexperience seemed to cost MacDonald his last fight, and Brown, stubbornly aggressive to the bitter end, will test MacDonald in all three areas. But the talented younger man should still take the win, even if he can’t finish Brown inside the distance.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Brown’s long limbs naturally lend themselves to Muay Thai. He exploits his range, leading with long body and head kicks. This makes up for a lack of speed, still effectively setting the tempo by controlling distance, kicking on the outside and digging in strong Thai knees and elbows during the clinch.
60%, or three fifths, of MacDonald’s victories have been via submission
With twice the experience of relative newcomer MacDonald, Brown’s faced a generally higher level of competition throughout his career. Where MacDonald tore through his opposition with a series of dominant performances, Brown’s story is a mixed report of victories and defeats in hard battles that could’ve gone either way. While the former may seem ostensibly more impressive, Brown has a wealth of experience to draw on if he should find himself up against it; and with both men coming off UFC losses, Brown already knows he can bounce back from defeat. Having kept a clean slate until running into Condit at UFC 115, it’s impossible to know whether the loss will spur the young up and comer to greater heights, or give way to doubts.
Both men’s records show an even spread of finishes via submission and (T)KO’s standing and on the mat, with none of MacDonald’s and only two of Brown’s fights ever having been decided by the judges. However this fight plays out, it’s likely to be filled with action and the loser will go out on his shield.
Jorge Rivera (19-7-0) vs Alessio Sakara (15-7-0)
UFC 122, Oberhausen, Germany November 13 2010
BREAKDOWN BY THE NUMBERS
22
Sakara and Rivera have 22 TKO wins between them that account for 60% and 68% of their victories respectively.
5
When Sakara takes on Rivera in November it will have been five years one month and six days since his 2005 UFC debut.
300
Both men have lost to Chris Leben. Combined they managed a total of 300 seconds before being TKO’d by the heavy-handed brawler.
44
The 38-year-old Rivera made his UFC debut at UFC 44: Undisputed in 2003.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Rewarding a fiercely loyal fanbase, while simultaneously sticking two fingers up to the country’s hysterical media and politicians, the UFC returns to Germany for a solid card littered with Europeans. One of them, the heavily (and excessively Roman) tattooed ‘Legionarius’ Sakara faces off with resurgent veteran Rivera in a fight that promises plenty of stand-up action. True, the nearest either man is likely to get to the middleweight title is attending the same weigh-in as the champion. But they both possess a wealth of experience – this will be Sakara’s 11th UFC fight, and Rivera’s 12th. The 28-year-old Sakara and the decade older Rivera are both riding three-fight winning streaks. Last time out, Rivera put on a career-best display in obliterating veteran Nate Quarry, while Sakara stopped the mysteriously still-employed James Irvin with a punch to the eyeball. Both Rivera and Sakara (who has a somewhat notable professional boxing background) heavily favor striking. Although both have been stopped a few times, Rivera seems to own the more solid chin, and has faced stiffer opposition over the years, but he’s a little more shopworn than the Italian. That wear and tear, and Sakara’s improvements since joining the American Top Team, may make all the difference.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Former pro-boxer Sakara has relied on a sharp and orthodox striking style for most of his career, working behind his sharp jab to find the distance and deliver right crosses and left hooks. Unfortunately for Sakara, his skill set and his attributes don’t quite marry perfectly – although he delivers a punch with skill and power, he doesn’t always take them too well, and it’s not uncommon to see Sakara rocked by opposition with lesser hand-skills.
Once deeply awkward delivering kicks and knees, the Italian’s revamped his striking style and boasts a dangerous right kick (as demonstrated in his Ultimate Fight Night 15 KO victory over Joe Vedepo). Switch hitter Rivera is still the more versatile with his legs, and if this bout becomes a kick war or a Thai clinching battle, the odds must favor ‘The Conquistador’.
Key for the shorter Sakara must be controlling the range, or risk being eaten up on the outside or rushed to a clinch.
*Figures courtesy of Compustrike
...
