Issue 162

December 2017

Although this is unlikely to happen next – as Ferguson’s interim belt puts him above the Russian in the pecking order – it’s tough to imagine McGregor not facing ‘The Eagle’ at some point. There’s a strong case to be made, thanks to his perfect 24-0 record, that Nurmagomedov is the best lightweight in the world. This is also arguably the most straightforward and most challenging available matchup for the champion.

There’s very little middle ground. He should either take his challenger out quickly on the feet, or have the distance closed on him and get dominated on the ground.

The case for McGregor

Put simply, Nurmagomedov will be outclassed on the feet when the fight starts. McGregor is quicker, more accurate and possesses a wider range of tools with which to do damage. Add in the open stance created by McGregor’s southpaw style and his opponent’s orthodox approach, and a striking battle reads like a raft of bad news for the sambo specialist.

Hardy explains: “If Michael Johnson can land that shot – a southpaw that moves fast with a powerful left hand – why wouldn’t Conor be able to do that? Khabib’s range striking is not going to be a problem at all. He can dance around him and laugh at him because his striking is very elementary.”

‘The Outlaw’ argues that even the Dagestani’s previous striking successes wouldn’t necessarily have the same impact, or even land, on the Irishman.

The most emphatic display of striking he has shown to date was in his first-round KO of Thiago Tavares, which saw him connect with a left hook/uppercut hybrid thrown with “horrible technique”.

Though that unorthodox approach has proved successful against lesser strikers, McGregor would likely eat him up if faced with that kind of attack.

“Because of the direction he throws the punch, it gets stifled by the front hand of southpaws,” Hardy explains. “It works against an orthodox fighter because it comes up through their guard and catches them under their chin. That’s the way he punches his way into the majority of his takedown attempts.

"If he doesn’t feel confident to throw that, as long as Conor stays on the outside of his lead foot, Conor has a good chance of hitting him as he comes forward.”

The case for Khabib

Would you want to tangle with this guy on the ground? Even ground specialists like Rafael dos Anjos have been made to look helpless once they’ve hit the mat with Nurmagomedov. There’s also one aspect of McGregor’s striking that, though it’s an advantage if he exchanges punches, could work against him when it comes to presenting an opportunity for that all- important takedown.

“Khabib can take down a southpaw fighter if they circle to his power side and, unusually, Conor does that to everybody he fights,” Hardy says.

“Usually, when you’re a southpaw, you want to step to your right to force people to move towards your left hand, which would be perfect for Khabib, because he’ll be stepping to the outside of his foot, which means Khabib’s then shooting across himself.

"To set up his left hand, Conor steps to his left and throws a cross to the right, which means Khabib’s takedown could be more comfortable for him.”

If that happens, McGregor fans might want to cover their eyes. Nurmagomedov has incredible control, does real damage and is a submission threat. He also saps energy from his opponents, which makes them increasingly more vulnerable as the fight wears on – even standing, where they begin to fear the takedown and its consequences.

“If Khabib gets his hands on him, that’s when it becomes a problem,” says Hardy. “Obviously, he’s an excellent wrestler, but he has a lot more success with his punches when he’s got one hand on his opponent. He likes a single neck-tie, or whatever he can do to get a hand on his opponent and then work away on them.

"Khabib is going to be ready to wrestle hard for five rounds and that’s something we’ve never before seen from Conor. I still think an in-shape Chad Mendes would have at least caused him problems for another round or two.”

That encounter with Mendes is instructive, as it shows McGregor is willing to stay on the mat, defend and bide his time until the next round if he hits the floor. That worked against a featherweight who took the fight on short notice and is happy to try and do damage from guard, but we’re talking about a far more aggressive grappler in Nurmagomedov.