Aljamain Sterling has been breaking down the upcoming UFC lightweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira.
The former bantamweight champion Sterling (24-5 MMA, 16-5 UFC) has been questioning whether Oliveira (35-10 MMA, 23-10 UFC) can withstand the knockout power that Topuria (16-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC) brings to the Octagon.
Oliveira is renowned for his world-class grappling—holding the record for the most submission wins in UFC history (16)—but in recent years, he’s also embraced striking battles that have seen him take considerable damage.
Sterling wonders if the Brazilian’s approach will need to change against Topuria, who has showcased devastating knockout power throughout his UFC run.
“This is interesting because Oliveira gets dropped every fight,” Sterling said during an appearance on The Weekly Scraps podcast. “Just about every fight. The last eight fights, I would say. With that said, we know Ilia Topuria can crack. We’ve seen (Topuria) get dropped before by Jai Herbert, came back. That was the first time he fought at 155. He says he feels better at 155, his power is way different at 155. We know he can already crack at ‘45. What is that power going to translate into at 155 and if he can touch Charles the way he hits everybody else, I think it’s a bad night and Ilia’s a two-division champion.
“But the grappling department. We haven’t seen anyone force the grappling issue against Ilia and I wonder if “Do Bronx” will try to do that to see if he can gas him out and take away some of the pop from his punches. That’s the big question mark.”
Topuria had a breakout year in 2024. The Spanish-Georgian star knocked out longtime featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski to capture the 145-pound title, then followed it up with a brutal knockout of Max Holloway to successfully defend his belt.
After delivering two emphatic finishes against two of the greatest featherweights in UFC history, Aljamain Sterling is eager to see how far “El Matador” can go now that he’s made the move up to 155 pounds.
“It’s hard to count out do Bronx,” Sterling said. “I still think he’s him. But then I said that about Max, I said that about Volk—and I’m not saying those guys were going to win against Ilia—but you say that those guys are still them and then Ilia goes out does that to them, you’re like, ‘Fuck... who’s stopping this guy?’
“I’m leaning towards Ilia, I think that’s smart money. Of course, Oliveira can win, if he can grapple with him early, maybe he surprises us and shows us that Ilia can get tired and take off some of the sting of those punches, but then what does that look like for Oliveira in the later rounds?
“Can he keep his hands up and defend the right way, especially if he doesn’t get a finish? And how does he get the takedown? He’s got to close the distance to get the takedown, against a shorter dude, how are you doing that? You’ve got to get underneath him. It’s hard.”
