Issue 091
August 2012
FO’s experts and statisticians analyze three upcoming bouts
First, FO analyst Andrew Garvey takes a look at the state of play: what are the career implications for the combatants? Where are they coming from, and what will victory or defeat hold? Next, our technical advisor Pete Irving breaks down the athletic considerations.
JOSE ALDO (21-1-0) VS ERIK KOCH (13-1-0)
UFC 149 July 21, Calgary, Canada
The bigger picture
For UFC featherweight champion José Aldo (21-1) UFC 142 was the perfect Brazilian homecoming. With some 23 million of his countrymen watching on TV station Globo, Aldo obliterated the previously unbeaten Chad Mendes just a second before the end of the first round with a stunning knee to the head and some fast, brutal punches on the ground. Then, if that weren’t memorable enough, his raucous celebration (Aldo ran out of the Octagon and celebrated with the crowd) is something few fight fans who saw it are likely to forget. With a near-perfect performance, Aldo silenced those who whispered that, on the back of two decision wins over Mark Hominick (UFC 129) and Kenny Florian (UFC 136) he just wasn’t as effective a fighter as he had been when he was decimating the WEC 145lb division. The Mendes fight was the fifth defense of his WEC/UFC title and solidified Aldo’s place as the greatest featherweight in the sport’s history. Still only 25, the peerless, lightning-fast and fight-finishing champion has been the youngest man in the cage or ring in every fight of his pro career, records suggest. If nothing else, 23-year-old Erik ‘New Breed’ Koch (13-1) will actually have youth on his side. Like Aldo, he’s a fast southpaw, tall for the division (at five-foot-nine he’s two inches taller than the Brazilian) and he’s coming off four straight wins, three inside the distance. In his only loss at WEC 47, Koch scored with some good punches and kicks but dropped the decision due to Chad Mendes’ excellent takedowns and control on the ground. Koch bounced back with a triangle choke win over Bendy Casimir (WEC 49) and two chilling knockout victories over late replacement Francisco Rivera (WEC 52) and, in his UFC debut, Raphael Assuncao (UFC 128). However, he was less than impressive last time out, decisioning Jonathan Brookins at UFC Fight Night 25, being unable to stop Brookins forcing him up against the cage, but doing enough damage at other times to take the win in a boring fight. Koch certainly earned that victory but many would question whether after that showing, in this, his first main card pay-per-view fight, he’s really done enough to earn a shot at Aldo. Koch is a dangerous, quality fighter but he’ll go into his title challenge a heavy underdog, and with very good reason. Koch is good and has a bright future but Aldo is exceptional. Already huge for his weight class, the champion’s future surely lies at 155lb. Expect him there sometime in 2013, with a stoppage win over Erik Koch on his record.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Aldo’s formula of hooks, knees, body punches and low kicks has consistently paid off. Even high-level kickboxers like Mark Hominick have failed to really find a way to stop him getting his work off. Koch’s lefty stance should make it trickier for Aldo to land the body punch, and will make the inside leg the target for his low kick. Like most southpaws, Koch favors his left leg, kicking head and body with good power. Expect him to try to repay Aldo’s kicks with that left appendage. His stance is crouched and hand position quite low, which should make it harder for Aldo to shoot his double-leg, but conversely easier to land his punches and low kick.
The power Aldo generates is evident in his outstanding knockout ratio: 13 of his 21 wins coming via (T)KO, while only having one from true submission. As his kicks back his opponent up, Aldo shoots his fast double-leg, always getting deep in on the shot and driving his man to the mat, spearing them off their feet. Generating the kind of power that he does and maintaining the high work rate that characterizes a typical Aldo performance has to be taxing, and as he struggles more and more to make the 145lb limit, the later rounds are the most dangerous time for Aldo. After winning the first few frames comfortably against Hominick at UFC 129 in April 2011, Aldo coasted the final stanza, allowing Hominick back into the fight. All of his stoppages have come in rounds one or two, bar one third-round finish when he stopped TUF 12 winner Jonathan Brookins (a common opponent) at 10:45 of their WEC 36 fight. The rest have gone to the judges after three or five rounds. Clearly, the first two rounds are the most dangerous for Koch.
José Aldo has stopped 68% of his career opponents. That increases to 73% if you only include his WEC and UFC bouts.
Aldo has only ever attempted one submission in a Zuffa cage – against Mark Hominick at UFC 129 in Toronto, April 2011.
Despite coming out of the striking-inclined Roufusport, Koch’s submission wins actually outweigh his knockouts by 7:3.
José Aldo is currently enjoying a massive 14-fight win streak (one shy of Anderson Silva) that includes action in four different countries.
Between a debut first-stanza knockout at UFC 128 and a follow-up decision win in September, Erik Koch has fought four rounds in the UFC. In the WEC he has fought eight rounds.
HECTOR LOMBARD (31-2-1) VS BRIAN STANN (12-4-0)
UFC ON FOX 4
August 4, Los Angeles, US
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Former WEC light heavyweight champion and all-round role model Brian Stann (12-4) gets to face very dangerous Cuban Hector Lombard (31-2-1-1) in by far the biggest fight of either man’s career. A member of Cuba’s 2000 Olympic judo team, Lombard is a ferocious freight train of a fighter boasting 20 straight wins that include a Bellator tournament victory, claiming the promotion’s inaugural middleweight title, and some dominating victories over some good and not-so-good opponents. With some eye-catching, rapid-fire knockouts, Lombard is extremely dangerous early but tends to fade later. A heavy-handed, much-improved fighter, Stann, three years younger than Lombard at 31, is 4-1 since dropping to middleweight, losing only to Sonnen and picking up good, inside-the-distance wins over Mike Massenzio (UFC Live 2), Chris Leben (UFC 125), Jorge Santiago (UFC 130) and Alessio Sakara (UFC on Fuel 2). Smart-signing Lombard’s UFC debut, especially in such a prominent slot on a Fox special, will generate a lot of hype but Stann will be a very tough first opponent. Even with fewer fights he’s more experienced at the top level . Don’t be too surprised if Stann gives Lombard a very unpleasant UFC welcome.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Although a newcomer to the UFC, American Top Team fighter Lombard comes with a heavy CV: Olympic judo, appearances in Pride and extensive showings in Bellator. A dreadfully awkward-looking kicker, Lombard struggles to twist his thickly muscled trunk and heavy hips to drive home his leg strikes. Most of his success comes from his powerful punches. He leaps into them, throwing them like a double-leg shot so, while they make look ugly, he punches all his weight. Lombard has a ferocious killer instinct, and when he senses opponents are in trouble he wastes no time in steaming in on them with flurries of hooks, or chasing them to the mat and hammering away. Lombard brings the repertoire of slams, trips and throws one would expect from an Olympic judoka, often giving his opponents some spectacular air time.
Stann is a model MMA fighter, with a balanced skill-set. He’s tough, hardworking, has good power and consistently solid conditioning. Stann simply does things by the book and gets good results. He punches hard and throws in the odd kick or knee. He does the basics right in wrestling, and his strong ground ‘n’ pound from on top often pays dividends. However, getting top position on the powerhouse that is Lombard is a tall order for anyone. Stann has a habit of charging with his flurries of punches, bringing his right leg in with the right cross, making for a powerful punch but also leaving him momentarily very square. If he chases Lombard with his punches, he may run straight into Hector’s tackle.
Hector Lombard hasn’t lost since 2006 (25 bouts) – a decision defeat to Gegard Mousasi at Pride Bushido 13.
Hector Lombard has been taken to decision in 26% of his career bouts. Thus far, it has been the only route that has seen him taste defeat.
Based on UFC and WEC performances, Stann has avoided 62% of strikes thrown in his direction.
In the UFC and WEC Brian Stann has successfully avoided 57% of takedown attempts.
Brian Stann started training in mixed martial arts (and had his first amateur bout) four months before Hector Lombard’s September 2004 pro MMA debut.
ED HERMAN (20-8-0) VS JAKE SHIELDS (27-6-1)
UFC 150, August 11, Denver, US
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Pitting one man who perpetually looks sleepy against another with a reputation amongst some fans for curing audience insomnia, TUF 3 runner-up Ed Herman (20-8) and former Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields (27-6-1) who’s making his return to 185lb, square off at UFC 150. This, Herman’s 13th UFC appearance sees him on a three-fight win streak (all inside two rounds), and in his best form since 2007. However, Shields is very clearly at least a step above anyone Herman has faced in years, even if he still hasn’t genuinely impressed as a UFC fighter yet. Frighteningly weight-drained, he was exceptionally lucky to get a split decision over Martin Kampmann at UFC 121 in 2010, was predictably outclassed over five rounds by Georges St Pierre at UFC 129 and was shockingly blitzed in 53 seconds by Jake Ellenberger at UFC Fight Night 25 (although Shields likely shouldn’t have been fighting given the recent, sudden death of his father). Yes, he beat Yoshihiro Akiyama in Tokyo in February but the former Japanese star is thought of by some as little more than a ring entrance and a suntan these days. Herman, a good, solid, well-rounded fighter, will be a decent test. But Shields, even with his still-glaringly deficient striking is much better on the ground and Herman has four submission losses on his record. Shields can, should, and needs to add a fifth.
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
Shields’ striking is terribly awkward; seeing him striking pads one would think him to be a raw novice rather than a high-level professional fighter. That being said, he’s actually had some good results with his hands. Although it’s hard to distinguish what is owed to the threat of being taken down by such a respected grappler and what should be credited to his actual boxing ability, he is not as bad he looks as Georges St Pierre would be forced to concede after sustaining a performance-troubling left eye injury via Shields strikes in their UFC 129 bout.
And although wrestling, in which he excelled, was the sport that brought Shields to jiu-jitsu and MMA his takedowns just don’t look that great. He doesn’t have the spectacular lift and drive similar to the likes of welterweight peers Josh Koscheck and St Pierre. Though it cannot be denied that when Shields gets his hands on his opponents, he gets them down, however unstylish his fence-aided, or otherwise, method may be.
Where Shields shines, of course, is on the mat. In the sport of submission wrestling his name stands up with the world’s elite top tier of grapplers, owning multiple ADCC, Grapplers Quest and Pan Am medals. His style lends itself perfectly to the MMA game, with the right blend of tightness and activity.
Herman is not poor on the mat by any stretch, with 13 of his 20 career wins coming from a variety of submissions, but he cannot hope to contend with Shields in a ground battle. His strategy must be to avoid the takedown and strike with him, which is not what Herman is generally inclined to do.
In 12 UFC bouts, Ed Herman has landed 59 strikes while standing, for an average of 4.9 per fight. However, with clinch and ground strikes included that increases to 23.7.
By fight night it will have been 848 days since Jake Shields last fought at 185lb. That was a decision win against UFC 205lb contender Dan Henderson.
Despite his grappling pedigree, Shields has scored around six of 36 takedown attempts since 2006.
Jake Shields will have a three-inch reach disadvantage against Ed Herman.
Exactly 63% of Herman’s eight losses have come via submission, while Jake Shields has 10 tapout victories.
