Sean O’Malley is backing Ian Machado Garry to pull off an upset against Islam Makhachev at UFC 330, predicting the Irish welterweight will use movement, distance and defensive wrestling to secure a decision victory.
Makhachev enters the matchup as the UFC’s pound-for-pound No. 1 fighter and the reigning welterweight champion after moving up from lightweight. Despite the challenge posed by the Russian star, O’Malley believes Garry’s size and movement could give him the tools needed to neutralize Makhachev’s strengths.
“Islam's pound for pound number one. He's moving up. He beat JDM. He's the 170-pound champ. I don't know. I think Ian's going to do a really, really good job at frustrating (him),” O’Malley said on his YouTube channel.
O’Malley expects Garry to rely heavily on his jab and footwork rather than standing in the pocket with Makhachev.
“I do think there's going to be a point where he's frustrating Islam. He's popping with a jab, and he's moving. He's circling. He's not engaging,” O’Malley said. “So I do think it's going to be a little bit of a punch, move, punch, move. Don't engage too much.”
According to O’Malley, that approach could be crucial for Garry’s chances of winning. Rather than trying to match Makhachev in prolonged exchanges or grappling sequences, Garry will need to dictate where the fight takes place and avoid being trapped against the cage.
“I think he's gonna wrestle really well. I think he's gonna not get his back pushed up against the fence and he's gonna circle, find the center, you know, shut down a couple takedowns,” O’Malley said.
While O’Malley is picking Garry to win, he also warned against overlooking Makhachev’s striking. The former lightweight champion has developed into a well-rounded threat on the feet, and O’Malley pointed specifically to his performances against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski.
“People are sleeping on Islam’s striking. Islam’s striking is clean, especially when he fought Dustin Poirier,” O’Malley said. “It was looking super, super sharp.”
However, O’Malley believes Garry’s height could limit one of Makhachev’s most dangerous weapons: his head kick. Garry stands at 6-foot-3, considerably taller than Volkanovski, whom Makhachev famously stopped with a head kick in their rematch.
“I don't think we're going to see any Islam headkicks to Ian Garry,” O’Malley said.
O’Malley also joked about Garry’s vegan diet while acknowledging that Makhachev could still overwhelm the taller fighter if he gets him into his preferred grappling positions.
“Part of me thinks he's just…that Islam could just grab a hold of him and snap him in half like a f---ing zucchini,” O’Malley said.
Ultimately, however, O’Malley is siding with Garry to spring the upset. He expects the fight to be tactical rather than an all-out brawl, with Garry using his reach, movement and defensive wrestling to frustrate Makhachev over five rounds.
“Final prediction, I think Ian Garry's going to win a decision,” O’Malley said. “I don't think it's going to be the most exciting fight ever. I think there's going to be some good back and forths, but I do think Ian Garry's going to get the job done.”
