Issue 143
July 2016
Jon Jones aims to get his belt back while Daniel Cormier tries to settle the score in UFC 200’s blockbuster rematch
Daniel Cormier vs. Jon Jones 2
The marquee card of 2016 is finally upon us. Booking UFC 200’s headline act wasn’t straightforward, but Zuffa has finally settled on the most fascinating rematch in MMA for its landmark event.
While Conor McGregor and Ronda Rousey may have done more for pay-per-view sales, pitching troubled former champion Jon Jones against Daniel Cormier guarantees compelling action in and out of the cage. It’s not only a fight between the two best fighters at 205lb, it’s the most heated rivalry in combat sports.
Jones showed his championship credentials to win their first fight by decision in January 2015, though ‘DC’ had his moments. Since then, Jones looked rusty on his return against Ovince Saint Preux after 15 months on the shelf due to suspension. Meanwhile, his adversary looked fearsome in claiming and defending the belt.
FO asked three respected individuals from the industry to pick whether it will be revenge or repeat when ‘Bones’ and DC meet again in July.
Eric Turner
Ovince Saint Preux’s head coach at Knoxville MMA
Picking Jon Jones
To see who wins this fight it’s important to go all the way back to 1975. That’s when Andrew Mack wrote an article that kicked off the asymmetric warfare debate. The depth of that discussion can be saved for a later time, but the important thing for this discussion is tactical asymmetry in mixed martial arts. Or, more specifically, how Jones uses tactical asymmetry.
There are two areas to consider, the first being strategic interaction. You can think of MMA as a game of rock-paper-scissors. Jones tends to add fourth or a fifth element to such interactions, thus allowing an optimal strategy not afforded to his opponent.
Then there is the attitudes towards time. Jones’ equilibrium strategy appears to be make few mistakes and capitalize towards the end of the round. This means that he’s only really attempting to win (ie. competing) for between nine and 15 minutes of a 25-minute fight. This creates an imbalance in the amount of resources expended during a fight in contrast to his opponent.
So there you have it, a look at Jones’ asymmetrical approach to MMA strategy. If DC brings a conventional approach, as he’s done in the past, he’s doomed to another loss. Of course, fights are fights and anything can happen, but my prediction is Jones wins by employing his near-perfect strategy.
Ryan LaFlare
UFC welterweight and former analyst for CompuStrike
Picking Jon Jones
I’m really looking forward to this rematch and I’m actually glad it’s headlining UFC 200. For me it’s the biggest fight in the Octagon right now and a fight that I was looking forward to far more than the original Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz headliner.
I feel like the momentum has switched between Cormier and Jones. Cormier has a lot of forward motion behind him right now and it seems like he’s still getting better every single fight. Jones is probably the most talented fighter in the UFC, but he has had a lot of obstacles in the way and there aren’t that many surprises in his game any more.
If there was a time to beat Jones I believe it’s right now. But whilst I always like to pull for the underdog in fights, it’s still hard to bet against Jones. I just can’t go against him.
Even though he didn’t really impress me in his last fight he did win every single round. I see DC putting pressure on him early and often, but also I see Jones wearing him down eventually and keeping his distance like the first fight. I’m still taking Jones in the rematch.
Will Brooks
Reigning Bellator lightweight champion
Picking Jon Jones
I see this fight playing out similarly to their previous bout at UFC 182. Jones and Cormier had a pretty exciting back-and-forth battle during the days leading up to their original fight. However, once the cage doors closed things became very one-sided in favor of Jones.
In their UFC 200 rematch, I believe Jones – as he does in all of his fights – will control the pace by using his incredible reach advantage along with his mixed bag of striking attacks. Cormier will have bright moments for sure, but overall I see it the fight playing out much like it did the first time around. Jones will find himself in trouble in some spots but will take over in the long run.
If Cormier can stick to the original game plan he somewhat established in the first fight, which was to pressure Jones and force him to fight in a phone booth – in the clinch – then it could make for a long night for Jones.
Cormier has displayed great skill in the clinch with his uppercuts and dirty boxing and if he can put Jones in that box and stay on him then Cormier could rewrite the script. But I have to go with Jones in the rematch.
Bones Knows
The stats don’t lie
According to FightMetric’s figures, Jones won the first fight in every area. He outstruck Cormier in four of the five rounds, landing 92 significant strikes compared to ‘DC’s 58. He also scored three takedowns from five attempts compared to the challenger’s one from eight attempts.
